Politcal Science Academic Research About Anthony Mrugacz

Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Country Study: Viet Nam
Country Study: Bangladesh
South Ossetia Independence Claim
S.S. Lotus Judgment No. 9, Sept. 7, 1927
International Telecommunication Union
Economic Statecraft: USA / Iraq
The World’s Economic Systems

Eastern European Politics
Trade interdependence and peace
Marxism and U.S. Economics
Kant, Mitrany, and the Marxists
Why States Conflict
Country Study: Slovakia
China’s Decline

When I am not busy riding a BMW K100RS all over the USA and Europe, my efforts are towards writing reviews poliyical science for you, the people of Earth, to read and explore on this Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz webpage. One may continue enjoying this website’s efforts by receiving free updates by subscibing here. Additionally, sponsoring this unique websiteby a donation is also very affordable at less than ten dollars ($10.00) a year.

Content based and inspiredon International Studies at Texas State University San Marcos, Texas USA.

Last revision: October18th, 2024.

Anthony Mrugacz and his 1985 BMW K100RS in brzesc Kujawski, Polska in 1998.

Country Study: Viet Nam – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Reviewing Karl Marx’s Revolutionary scorecard from the 20th century one finds very few active players on the roster. Non-industrialized East Asian nations, where communism was not
supposed to work, have defied theory and survived as hybrid states. The Socialist Republic of
Vietnam has been evolving into such an enigma. The economic opening up of a one-party state has allowed new problems to seep in. Vietnam has always lived in the shadow of fear of her behemoth neighbor to the north, China. The implemented changes in the centrally controlled market economy has in the past few decades followed those of their communist brethren to the north. The benefits and problematic issues will be the focus of this country study.

Currently the government leaders are 66 year old President Nguyen Minh Triet (a ceremonial chief of state) and 59 year old Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (head of government ) of the National Assembly (Quoc Hoi). The National Assembly voted them in on June 27th, 2006. After winning control over the northern half from the French in 1954 and overrunning the south in 1975, the Vietnamese Communist party (VCP) is still firmly in control. The civilian government may run the day to day operations but the VCP cadres parallel it at all levels. Prime minister Dung is the 4th ranking member in the VCP, President Triet was the former party leader in Ho Chi Mih City (Saigon). Since 2001, the general secretary of the VCP’s 14 member politburo is 68 year old Nong Duc Manh. Gen Sec Nong is the only of the three leaders who attended a university in Soviet Russia.

Vietnam constitutionally functions as a traditional Socialist Republic. The main characteristics being; communist party given a central leadership role, the 492 seat unicameral National Assembly as the highest representative organ, and the executive branch wielding governmental power. The communist party is official name, Vietnamese Fatherland Front, yet oddly lost 42 assembly seats to non-party candidates. The current constitution, Vietnam’s third, was adopted in The last amendments in 2001 were to Article 2, which now allows the National Assembly to hold votes of confidence on its elected leaders, and Article 16 officially recognizes foreign investment as part of governmental economic planning. Unfortunately, these modern adaptations have not affected the citizen’s rights, as individual obligations are still to national duties over personal liberty. The hybrid civil code system, based on communist legal theory and French civil
law system, has not accepted International Court of Justice jurisdiction.¹

The communist ideology as a front for true nationalist intentions had succeeded in uniting Vietnam. However, with a population of over 86 million concentrated on 128 thousand square miles, it is taking more than theory to insure its survival. The population density is 655 persons per square mile, 100 times the US average, compacted in an area the size of the State of New Mexico. To overcome an undernourished and impoverished society, in 1986 the government instituted a policy of economic reforms called Doi Moi (New Changes). One may suspect after seeing that Deng Xiaoping’s Four Modernization in 1978 did not bring the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party’s control, Vietnam followed a similar path. Economic organization is still formulated in a Stalinist 5 year plan. The economic sectors of agricultural exports and manufacturing have seen the greatest gains.

The major agricultural exports are cashew nuts, rice, and coffee. Ranked globally as number one on the former, and second in the latter two. The extensive coastline and the 80,000 fisherman employed in the fishing industry is a major source for the nation’s protein and another major export product with the USA being the leading consumer. Unfortunately, the Pacific monsoons can drastically effect these cash crops. This month, two major storms raged across Vietnam in the middle of coffee harvest season. Not only affecting the robusta coffee beans, used in producing instant coffee and its second largest cash crops, but halted work for the entire fishing fleet. The expected coffee harvest was already downgraded to 18% below last year’s level.² So critical is this export in raising hard currencies that 93% of the beans are exported.

Manufacturing industry has and is still influenced by foreign states. When the French pulled out of Indochina in 1954 the stripped all manufacturing equipment from factories in North Vietnam. In the 1970’s, Soviet Russia’s 1970’s economic assistance arrived with the command economy which attempted to develop socialist mega-projects at the expense of developing expertise. Currently, the Japanese are cooperating on transnational ventures due to Vietnam’s abundant, motivated, and inexpensive workforce. A major development which will be discussed later. The two former superpowers that fought over the political soul of the Southeast Asian peninsula have new roles. The Russians are now a major source for tourists and enjoy reunions with their former alliances. The Americans are now recipients of exported goods and the importers of fast food chains like Kentucky Fried Chicken.³ China’s industrial surge has only caused international disputes with Vietnam over ownership rights to oil deposits in the South China Sea. Once an aggressive pariah, Vietnam has ascended to membership in ASEAN and has reached an agreement in sharing development with the China and other regional states of the Spratley Islands’ petroleum reserves.

The 9% economic growth rates have trailed just behind China, but Hanoi recently downgraded this to 7% . The dependency on trade as a vehicle for economic expansion has reached phenomenal levels. The influx of foreign direct investment has raised…. living standards dramatically. Land prices have skyrocketed and inflation has outpaced GDP by 4%. A major factor in this developing nation is rising fuel costs. The government had been subsidizing gasoline prices but with this removed, prices recently surged up 36%. However, a price cap on the upper limits is enforced at a current rate of $4.35 per gallon.⁴

The explosive growth is a double edge sword. Life expectancy in 1970 was a low 49 years yet today stands at 74.⁵ With more workers reaching retirement age, mandatory retirement is age 60, inflation is eroding retirement savings.⁶ However, with 50% of the population under age 25, future taxpayers insure a healthy social security system for the near future. The economic progress is creating additional stresses on the average Vietnamese citizen. The communist party is slowly replacing the traditional family as the central focus of daily life. To wean Vietnamese society away from this historic economic unit, government planning developed many successful programs for its own and the public needs. The social security system doubles as a internal spy network.⁷ Local cadres hand deliver retirees monthly payments to check up on the elderly.⁸ Family planning has had a tremendous impact on controlling population growth through available and affordable contraceptives to over two-thirds of the population.⁹ Average children per family has dropped from seven in 1970 to a current rate of slightly over two. Papa-san will most likely be watching television in retirement rather than his grandchildren.

The daily life of the average citizen, which is 90% ethnic Vietnamese, is affected in both positive and negative aspects. After energy, the great global concern is usable fresh water. Safe water is available to over 85% of the nation.¹⁰ Literacy rates are at 90% and a 1995 government proclamation requiring all state employees under age 45 must be conversant in the English language has had an impact on more than just international relations.¹¹ Vietnam is flush with daily newspapers published in English. While an unofficial second language and 17% of the populace with internet may appear to be good for the influx of information and hopes for changing political values there is a flip side. The one-party stay heavily censors access to websites especially targeting critics of the government, expatriate political parties, and international human rights organizations.¹² But who would complain against such a regime when in the past five years unemployment has dropped from 25% to today’s 5%.¹³ Additionally, workers also have the benefit of a 5 day-40 hour work week, reduced in 1999 from the 6 day-48 hours.¹⁴

Finally, urban areas have a lower rates of air pollution than most Asian cities though the future calculations emphasize this will change without attention. The negative aspects are accepted as the status quo, mainly corruption and governmental control, which are preferred if stability is maintained. One aspect is promotion to the higher echelons of society places an emphasis on party membership or military experience with past national liberation forces over merit. Even with the food inflation rate at 26%, which would have a democratic society up in arms, protests against the regime are minimal. Vietnam is ranked 121st worst nation for corruption.¹⁵ The bureaucracy keeps a watchful eye on startups as it takes 50 days and 11 forms to open the doors of a new business.¹⁶ An additional hurdle is the 11.8% interest rate on loans.¹⁷Previously mentioned reduced work hours are negated by the fact there are only nine holidays in Vietnam.¹⁸ If the work does not kill, then the traffic will. Government regulations to license drivers and require helmet use has failed, but as a population reducer the annually fatal accident rate is soaring at 300% per year.19 Safety organization base it on vehicle operator’s attitudes regarding safety.²⁰

One word synonymous with Southeast Asia is motor scooter, the essential heartbeat of daily living. Vietnam presently has 300 scooter operators for every one mile of paved road.²¹ The dominant form of transportation places Vietnam as the 2nd largest market. The demand, which increased 30% from last year, is being used an an opportunity to develop manufacturing.²² The market is dominated by Japanese brands assembled in Japanese funded plants by Vietnamese workers. Hanoi has allowed this to capture the knowledge and expertise in manufacturing these vehicles. Combined with investment in educating engineering students, it plans to soon have the research and development capabilities to produce and market domestic brands. Oddly, Vietnamese consumers prefer the Japanese models which are typically 60% more expensive than a Chinese import. One may surmise that the 1978 Chinese invasion is the reason enough, but most Vietnamese consumers when interviewed stated the Sino-scooters are crap.²³

The ascension as partner to the global community has raised Vietnam’s living standards but still leaves it lacking in the area human rights violations and human trafficking violations. Once seeing itself as an ideological leader in the region, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 3 million dollars a day it was receiving, has caused this fallen domino to loose its spots in order to sustain itself. Admitted to the UN in 1977, Vietnam currently holds a seat as a non-permanent two year member on the UN Security Council until January 1st, 2009. It’s current report card shows membership in Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Bank, the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the UN Development Program (UNDP) , the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Intellectual Property Organization, the Asian Development Bank, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (SEAN). The new direction of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam can be summarized by quoting an extract from at The Party’s 10th National Congress, “Push ahead foreign economic activities, integrate more deeply and fully in global, regional and bilateral economic institutions, with national interests as the highest objective.”²⁴

My efforts are towards writing reviews poliyical science for you, the people of Earth, to read and explore on this Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz webpage. One may continue enjoying this website’s efforts by receiving free updates by subscibing here. Additionally, sponsoring this unique websiteby a donation is also very affordable at less than ten dollars ($10.00) a year.

1 World Fact Book. (Washington, D.C.: The Central Intelligence Agency, 2008).

2 Bruce Meng. “Vietnam’s 2007/2008 coffee exports fall 17.5 pct.”(Alibab.com. September 24th, 2008).

3 “KFC exec speaks on the growth of fried chicken.” (Saigon Times Online. March 4th, 2006).

4 “Vietnam raises domestic fuel prices by up to 36 percent.” (International Herald Tribune July, 22nd, 2008).

5 “At a glance: Viet Nam.” (UNICEF: United Nations Population Division and United Nations Statistics Division.)

6 (UNICEF: United Nations Population Division and United Nations Statistics Division.)

7 New Law On Gender Equality Will greatly Improve Viet Nam’s Legal Regime.” (United Nations General Assembly: WOM/1593. January 17th, 2007)

8 Viet Nam Social Security. “Paying Social Security Benefits through Pay-Agents at Commune Level.”(Hanoi).

9 Dominique Marie-Annick Haughton. Health and Wealth in Vietnam, An Analysis of Household Living Standards, p.23. (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1999).

10 Data Statistics. (World Bank 2008)

11 Kate Brown. “Courses in English Flourish in Vietnam.” (International Herald Tribune, February 14th, 1995).

12 OpenNet Initiative. (Joint Project between Centre for International Studies-University of Toronto, Berkman Center for Internet & Society-Harvard Law School, Cambridge Security Programme-University of Cambridge, Internet Governance and Regulation-Oxford University, 2008).

13 World Fact Book. (Washington, D.C.: The Central Intelligence Agency, 2008).

14 Li Qi, Bill Taylor, and Stephen Frost.”Labour Relations and Regulations in Vietnam: Theory And Practice.” (City University of Hong Kong: Southeast Asia Research Centre, Working Papers No. 53-3.8, 2002).

15 Corruption Perceptions Index 2008 (Berlin: Transparency International, 2008).

16 Doing Business 2008. “Country Briefing- Vietnam.” (World Bank, 208)

17 International Monetary Fund. “International Financial Statistics.” (October 2008).

18 Neighboring Cambodia enjoys 28 governmental holidays, the USA has 10 federal holidays.

19 Joshua Jake Levine. “A Lesson In Driving.” (The Vietnam Business Journal. August 1997).

20 Only 3% of motorcycle operators wear helmets and only 50% are licensed. Kate Johnson. “Under the Wheels.” (Time Magazine, October 28th, 2002).

21 In comparison, the USA has 1.5 two-wheeled vehicles per paved mile of road. Dr. Phan Le Binh, “Statistic Data on Transport Sector in Vietnam.” (Japan International Cooperation Agency-Vietnam, March 3rd, 2008).

22 Reuters News Service. “UPDATE 1-Yamaha to boost Vietnam motorcycle output 50 pct.” (July 29th, 2007).

23 Kohei Mishima. “Motorcycle Industry in Vietnam,Thailand and Indonesia.” (Tohoku University: April 3rd, 2004).

24 Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs . “Vietnam Foreign Policy.” (Hanoi: The Political Report of The Central Committee, September 28th, 2007)

BIBLIOGRAPHY – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Binh, Dr. Phan Le, “Statistic Data on Transport Sector in Vietnam.” Japan International Cooperation Agency- Vietnam, March 3rd, 2008.

Brown, Kate. “Courses in English Flourish in Vietnam.” International Herald Tribune, February 14th, 1995.

Central Intelligence Agency. World Fact Book. Washington, D.C.: The Central Intelligence Agency, 2008.

Centre for International Studies-University of Toronto, Berkman Center for Internet & Society-Harvard Law School, Cambridge Security Programme-University of Cambridge, Internet Governance and Regulation- Oxford University. “OpenNet Initiative Project.” 2008.

Frost, Stephen, Bill Taylor, and Li Qi. ”Labour Relations and Regulations in Vietnam: Theory And Practice.” Hong Kong: City University-Southeast Asia Research Centre, Working Papers No. 53-3.8, 2002.

Haughton, Dominique Marie-Annick. Health and Wealth in Vietnam, An Analysis of Household Living Standards. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1999.

International Herald Tribune. “Vietnam raises domestic fuel prices by up to 36 percent.” July, 22nd, 2008.

International Monetary Fund. “International Financial Statistics.” October 2008.

Johnson, Kate. “Under the Wheels.”Time Magazine, October 28th, 2002.

Kohei Mishima. “Motorcycle Industry in Vietnam,Thailand and Indonesia.” Tohoku University: April 3rd, 2004.

Levine, Joshua Jake. “A Lesson In Driving.” The Vietnam Business Journal. August 1997.

Meng, Bruce. “Vietnam’s 2007/2008 coffee exports fall 17.5 pct.” Alibab.com. September 24th, 2008.

Reuters News Service. “UPDATE 1-Yamaha to boost Vietnam motorcycle output 50 pct.” July 29th, 2007.

Saigon Times Online. “KFC exec speaks on the growth of fried chicken.” March 4th, 2006.

Transparency International. “Corruption Perceptions Index 2008.” Berlin, 2008.

UNICEF. “At a glance: Viet Nam.” United Nations Population Division and United Nations Statistics Division.

United Nations. “New Law On Gender Equality Will greatly Improve Viet Nam’s Legal Regime.” United Nations General Assembly: WOM/1593. January 17th, 2007.

Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Vietnam Foreign Policy.” Hanoi: The Political Report of The Central Committee, September 28th, 2007.

Viet Nam Social Security Division. “Paying Social Security Benefits through Pay-Agents at Commune Level.” Hanoi.

World Bank. “Data Statistics.” 2008.

World Bank. “Doing Business 2008-Country Briefing- Vietnam, 2008.

Country Study: Bangledesh – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The People’s Republic of Bangladesh was brought into the modern world on December 16th, 1971, just shy of nine months after declaring it’s independence from West Pakistan. Resembling a premature birth rather than an energetic new state breaking away from West Pakistan, Bangladesh, in reality shares more historical development in common with India, which assisted its independence movement. Looking at the situation in modern Bangladesh one finds the ultimate test case (or basket case).¹ In the eyes of the world community, there is in this sickly child-state, homogeneous demographic and geographic conditions making it a suitable place for attempting experimental development. Additionally, its strategic location, less than or equal to the Falkland Islands, puts it in a neutral position in the politically hierarchy of the world’s balance of power.

Unfortunately this attempt to reverse the situation in Bangladesh has only slowed its demise and magnified its reputation as a paradise for despair. These problems facing Bangladesh are also what brings it worldly fame- re-occuring natural disasters, political turmoil, corrupt governance, lack of resources and undereducated populace, astronomical population density place it 140th out of 177 on the Human Development Index. This level should enable it to achieve honorary membership in the African Union.² Situated between two developing economic powerhouses, China and India, and a neighborhood full of Asian economic tigers, has done little to reverse Bangladesh’s downward spiral. A contrast in logic exists, a nation enjoying such uniformity demographically should be able to turn itself around.

Examining countries like Japan, Korea, and Germany, which rebounded after having their infrastructures destroyed- why is Bangladesh, in all aspects of its modern development, getting from bad to worse? As a colonial offshoot, one may take aim at the British Raj, for leaving Bangladesh in its current state. The development under the British did have two major disadvantages, the selection of a regional command city and economic development. In considering the former, Calcutta was chosen by the British over Dhaka as a regional governmental center, and in the latter case, the region was developed only towards the exportation of agricultural products. The war of
independence ruined the reliability of Bangladesh as an exporter, causing loss of market share at a critical stage in its modern development. The accepting a system of parliamentary democracy has been a disaster, continuous factionalism leading to a multitude of military coups. Bangladesh politics can be portrayed as seven people arguing over who will drive a car stuck up to the doorhandles in mud, with no one wanting to get out and push it. And the military stands by like a tow truck, its only demand for rendering assistance is the surrendering of ownership.

Currently under a state of declared emergency over electoral disputes, a caretaker government (CTG) of unelected officials stand watch as the nation slips away. Bypassing the domestic issues for now, one may ask why assistance from a variety of international players has not assisted Bangladesh out of its poverty cycle? In 2007 Bangladesh ranked 147th in corruption (tied with the Russian federation) and 107th in global competitiveness and ease of doing business.³ Yet in 2005 received 1.321 billion dollars in foreign aid and has over 20,0000 non-governmental organizations involved there.⁴ Typically foreign aid vanishes as it seeps into a corrupt bureaucracy. However, the money pouring in has had a completely opposite effect of one might predict in such a corrupt state, funds are bottle necking. The inefficiency of the civil service has money piling up waiting to be spent.

Concurrently, it has a balance of payments deficit. Imagine a broken tractor, a stack of replacement parts and sufficient tools while a dozen people stand around not knowing how to read the repair manual. On top of this, is anyone of them qualified to drive it once repaired? The John Dewey approach of focusing on one problem until it is cured then tackling the next would not be applicable under current conditions in Bangladesh. However, the major challenge in unclogging this self-inflicted problem would be obtaining stable governance. All Bangladesh’s major political parties that have had a chance to rule, through a waxing and waning cycle as a majority in the unicameral parliament, the Jatia Sangsad. The three historically ruling parties are the Awami League (center-left, liberal, secular), Nationalist Party (BNP center-right, religious conservative, nationalist), and the Jatiya Party (founded by military dictator Hossain Mohammad Ershad).⁵ Rather than accept the election results as the will of the people when voted out of power, the opposition attempts to reclaim power by declaring election fraud and subsequent parliamentary boycotts, mass demonstrations and strikes.

The use of pre-election violence is a staple of Bengali politics through intimidation, bribes, and lethal violence such as bombing. Accusations of corruption is the number one argument put forth in party against party politics, yet no matter the who is in the parliamentary majority, Bangladesh’s transparency rating remains the same. Such antics, along with violent actions by militant groups, has resulted in multiple bloody military coups and counter-coups in the past four decades.⁶ The upcoming elections in December 2008 are a typical example representing Bengali politics. The transfer of power outside of Western democracies has always been a challenge and to resolve this the Bangladesh government instituted a policy in 1996 labeled Non-Party Care-taker Government into the constitution.⁷ In January 2007 parliamentary elections were supposed to be held but the following chain of events occurred resulting in a seemingly legal coup d’état. • Ninety days prior to the elections a non-partisan Caretaker Government, a council of ten led by a Chief Advisor, is appointed to ensure free and fair elections. Parliament is hence
dissolved.

• The Prime Minister Khaleda Zia from BNP allied with right wing Islamic parties handed over power to a Caretaker Government.⁸
• Iajuddin Ahmed, the BNP President, breaking constitutional rules appoints himself Chief Advisor. Continues to appoint the council members then ignores them.
• Opposition parties, led by mainly the Awami League, call for election postponement suspecting BNP control of Caretaker Government intends to distort elections by fraud.
• Elections are boycotted and mass civil unrest, strikes and protest, occur. Ahmed calls in the army to protect elections. International pressure mounts.
• On January 9th, 2008 major election observer groups, mainly the UN and EU, withdraw support for elections.
• Later that day, domestic and international pressures force Ahmed to resign as Chief Advisor of the caretaker Government. Before resigning, Ahmed declares state of emergency under Part XI1.141 of constitution.⁹ Such action requires approval of the prime minister, currently non-existent, giving him unilateral power.
• All basic rights of citizens suspended and curfew declared and enforced by military.¹⁰ Over 40,000 individuals are arrested under the new regime.
• State of emergency lasts 120 days, which can be unilaterally extended by Ahmed giving him the possibility continuing rule as a dictator using the constitution. Under these conditions he is not legally accountable to the parliament or people.
• Bangladesh Election Commission recreated February 2007 to resolve problems with electoral fraud. New elections slated for December 2008.¹¹

Bangladesh is on the road to somewhere and the decision to which route is not far off. Today the political scenario is similar to India and Pakistan, the current generation of leaders are descended or related to the countries founders. If this sense of entitlement to rule and the baggage of differences is not soon resolved the current cycle will continue. A growing problem is the despairity between the urban and rural classes. This secondary bottleneck to development is the educational system in Bangladesh, which intended as a cure only exacerbates the problem. The effort being made results in a brain drain from the villages. Education is pulling individualsout of the of rural areas into modern urban life who are most likely never to return. Such a widening rural/urban gap, compounded with other problems such as porous borders and a disgruntled populace practicing a moderate version of Islam, creates a scenario that one has witnessed before with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Micro-loans and eco-tourism may be buzz words to the West, but are of very little consequence to a nation of people without hope leaving on a dollar per day.¹² Claims of six percent economic growth rate and a confident middle class are dwarfed by the overall political circus and economic quagmire.

The long-term solution may be found to the East not to the West. The one party states backed by people’s armies such as China, Viet Nam, and Cambodia offer hope as they have modernized their economies and have given their populations a sense of stability, something totally lacking in modern Bengali history. This may cause a loss in human and civil rights but could be the disciplined force to drive Bangladesh forward. Relations with the West have improved with Eastern states that have chosen this single party state model rather than remain in post-colonial structures of government. The secret to Bangladesh’s future may lie somewhere in the following two famous quotes: Leopold Senghor’s “Human rights start at breakfast” and Benjamin Franklin’s “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve
neither liberty nor safety.” One is left to conclude the upcoming elections are a toss up using a same-sided coin.

1 Ambassador U. Alexis Johnson referred to the emerging nation of Bangladesh as “an international basket case,” while Henry Kissinger argued that at least it need not be “our basket case.” “The Kissinger Tilt.” Time Magazine, 17 January 1972. available from http://www.time.com/time /magazine/article/0,9171,877618,00.html; accessed 26 September 2008.

2 United Nations Developmental Programme. “Human Development Reports”. available from http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/; accessed 27 September 2009.

3 Transparency International. 2008 Corruption Perception Index. accessed 24 September 2008; available from http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2008/cpi2008/cpi_2008_table.

4 The World Factbbok. Bangladesh. Central Intelligence Agency. available from https://www.cia .gov/ library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.htmlaccessed 24 September 2008.

5 Today the Jatiya Party has separated into three separate parties- Ershad, Manju, and Naziur.

6 On August 17th, 2005, over 500 bombs exploded in 300 locations in Bangladesh. The Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) claimed responsibility and is rumored to have ties to Al Queda. BBC News. Bombs explode across Bangladesh. 17 August 2005. avaialable from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4158478.stm; accessed 25 September 2008.

7 See Appendix II for full text of Chapter IIA, Article 58B.

8 Khaleda Zia in 2006 was rated 33rd out the world’s most powerful 100 women by Forbes Magazine. Forbes Magazine. “The World’s 100 Most Powerful Women.” 31 August 2006. available from http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/11/06women_Khaleda-Zia_JSK7.html; accessed 26 September 2008.

9 See Appendix I for text.

10 Except the freedom of religion which is exempt under Part Part XI1.141B of the constitution.

11Bangladesh Election Commission. accessed 25 September 2008; available from http://www.ecs.gov.bd/ English/.

12 “Visit Bangladesh…. Before the tourists come”, is the current slogan of the board of tourism. http://www.bangladeshtourism.gov.bd

APPENDIX I – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

PART IXA EMERGENCY PROVISIONS
141A. Proclamation of Emergency (1) If the President is satisfied that a grave emergency exists in which the security or
economic life of Bangladesh, or any part thereof, is threatened by war or external aggression or internal disturbance, he may
issue a Proclamation of Emergency:
[Provided that such Proclamation shall require for its validity the prior counter signature of the Prime Minister.]
(2) A Proclamation of Emergency-
(a) may be revoked by a subsequent Proclamation;
(b) shall be laid before Parliament;
(c) shall cease to operate at the expiration of one hundred and twenty days, unless before the expiration of that period
it has been approved by a resolution of Parliament:
Provided that if any such Proclamation is issued at a time when Parliament stands dissolved or the dissolution of
Parliament takes place during the period of one hundred and twenty days referred to in sub-clause (c), the
Proclamation shall cease to operate at the expiration of thirty days from the date on which Parliament first meets
after its re-constitution, unless before that expiration of the meets after its re-constitution, unless before that
expiration of the said period of thirty days a resolution approving the Proclamation has been passed by Parliament.
(3) A Proclamation of Emergency declaring that the security of Bangladesh, or any part thereof, is threatened by war or
external aggression or by internal disturbance may be made before the actual occurrence of war or any such aggression or
disturbance if the President is satisfied that there is imminent danger thereof.
141B. Suspension of provisions of certain articles during emergencies While a Proclamation of Emergency is in operation,
nothing in articles 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 and 42 shall restrict the power of the State to make any law or to take any executive
action which the State would, but for the provisions contained in Part III of this Constitution, be competent to make or to
take, but any law so made shall, to the extent of the incompetence, cease to have effect as soon as the Proclamation ceases
to operate, except as respects things done or omitted to be done before the law so ceases to have effect.
141C. Suspension of enforcement of fundamental right during emergencies (1) While a Proclamation of Emergency is in
operation, the President may, [on the written advice of the Prime Minister, by order], declare that the right to move any
court for the enforcement of such of the rights conferred by Part III of this Constitution as may be specified in the order, and
all proceedings pending in any court for the enforcement of the right so specified, shall remain suspended for the period
during which the Proclamation is in force or for such shorter period as may be specified in the order.
(2) An order made under this article may extend to the whole of Bangladesh or any part thereof.
(3) Every order made under this article shall, as soon as may be, be laid before Parliament.]

APPENDIX II – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

CHAPTER IIA NON-PARTY CARE TAKER GOVERNMENT
58B. Non-Party Care-taker Government (1) There shall be a Non-Party Care-taker Government during the period from the
date on which the Chief Adviser of such government enters upon office after Parliament is dissolved or stands dissolved by
reason of expiration of its term till the date on which a new Prime Minister enters upon his office after the constitution of
Parliament.
(2) The Non-Party Care-taker Government shall be collectively responsible to the President.
(3) The executive power of the Republic shall, during the period mentioned in clause (1), be exercised, subject to the
provisions of article 58D(1), in accordance with this Constitution, by or on the authority of the Chief Adviser and shall be
exercised by him in accordance with the advice of the Non-Party Care-taker Government.
(4) The provisions of article 55(4), (5) and (6) shall (with the necessary adaptations) apply to similar matters during the
period mentioned in clause (1).
58C. Composition of the Non-Party Care-taker Government, appointment of Advisers, etc. (1) Non-Party Care-taker
Government shall consist of the Chief Adviser at its head and not more than ten other Advisors, all of whom shall be
appointed by the President.
(2) The Chief Adviser and other Advisers shall be appointed within fifteen days after Parliament is dissolved or stands
dissolved, and during the period between the date on which Parliament is dissolved or stands dissolved and the date on
which the Chief Adviser is appointed, the Prime Minister and his cabinet who were in office immediately before Parliament
was dissolved or stood dissolved shall continue to hold office as such.
(3) The President shall appoint as Chief Adviser the person who among the retired Chief Justices of Bangladesh retired last
and who is qualified to be appointed as an Adviser under this article:
Provided that if such retired Chief Justice is not available or is not willing to hold the office of Chief Adviser, the President
shall appoint as Chief Adviser the person who among the retired Chief Justices of Bangladesh retired next before the last
retired Chief Justice.
(4) If no retired Chief Justice is available or willing to hold the office of Chief Advise, the President shall appoint as Chief
Adviser the person who among the retired Judges of the Appellate Division retired last and who is qualified to be appointed
as an Adviser under this article:
Provided that if such retired Judge is not available or is not willing to hold the office of Chief Adviser, the President shall
appoint as Chief Adviser the person who among the retired Judges of the Appellate Division retired next before the last such
retired Judge.
(5) If no retired judge of the Appellate Division is available or willing to hold the office of Chief Adviser, the President
shall, after consultation, as far as practicable, with the major political parties, appoint the Chief Adviser from among
citizens of Bangladesh who are qualified to be appointed as Advisers under this article.
(6) Notwithstanding anything contained in this Chapter, if the provisions of clauses (3), (4) and (5) cannot be given effect
to, the President shall assume the functions of the Chief Adviser of the Non-Party Care-taker Government in addition to his
own functions under this Constitution.
(7) The President shall appoint Advisers from among the persons who are-
1. qualified for election as members of parliament;
2. not members of any political party or of any organisation associated with or affiliated to any political party;
3. not, and have agreed in writing not to be, candidates for the ensuing election of members of parliament;
4. not over seventy-two years of age.
(8) The Advisers shall be appointed by the President on the advice of the Chief Adviser.
(9) The Chief Adviser or an Adviser may resign his office by writing under his hand addressed to the President.
(10) The Chief Adviser or an Adviser shall cease to be Chief Adviser or Adviser if he is disqualified to be appointed as such
under this article.
(11) The Chief Adviser shall have the status, and shall be entitled to the remuneration and privileges, of a Prime Minister
and an Adviser shall have the status, and shall be entitled to the remuneration and privileges, of a Minister.
(12) The Non-Party Care-taker Government shall stand dissolved on the date on which the prime Minister enters upon his
office after the constitution of new parliament.
58D. Functions of Non-Party Care-taker Government (1) The Non-Party Care-taker Government shall discharge its
functions as an interim government and shall carry on the routine functions of such government with the aid and assistance
of persons in the services of the Republic; and, except in the case of necessity for the discharge of such functions its shall
not make any policy decision.
(2) The Non-Party Care-taker Government shall give to the Election Commission all possible aid and assistance that may be
required for bolding the general election of members of parliament peacefully, fairly and impartially.
58E. Certain provisions of the Constitution to remain ineffective Notwithstanding anything contained in articles 48(3),
141A(1) and 141C(1) of the Constitution, during the period the Non-Party Care-taker government is functioning, provisions
in the constitution requiring the President to act on the advice of the Prime Minister or upon his prior counter-signature shall
be ineffective.”]

BIBLIOGRAPHY  -  Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz

Ahmed, Anis.. Bangladeshis vote in “gateway to democracy” poll. Reuters, 4 August 2008. accessed 25 September 2008; avaialable from http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DHA192978.htm. Bangladesh Election Commission. accessed 25 September 2008; available from http://www.ecs.gov.bd/English/.

Bangladesh Tourism. available from http://www.bangladeshtourism.gov.bd/; accessed 26 September 2008.BBC News. Bombs explode across Bangladesh. 17 August 2005. avaialable from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4158478.stm; accessed 25 September 2008.

Constitution of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. available from http://www.pmo.gov.bd/constitution/index.htm; accessed 25 September 2008.

CyberMetics Lab. Rank of Universities by Country. accessed 26 September 2008; available from http://www.webometrics.info/rank_by_country.asp?country=bd.

Forbes Magazine. “The World’s 100 Most Powerful Women.” 31 August 2006. available from http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/11/06women_Khaleda-Zia_JSK7.html; accesesd 26 September 2008.

International Crisis Group. Restoring Democracy in Bangladesh. Asia Report N°151. 28 April 2008. available from http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5408&l=1; accessed 25 September 2008.

Jane’s. Terrorism in Bangladesh. 27 January 2005. available from http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/fr/fr050127_1_n.shtml; accessed 27 September 2008.

Liton, Shakhawait. Emergency declared; Iajuddin quits as chief adviser. The Daily Star, 12 January available from http://www.thedailystar.net/2007/01/12/d7011201011.htm; accessed 27 September 2008

Sengupta, Somini. Bangladesh president steps down as government leader. International Herald Tribune, 11 January 2007. accessed 26 September 2008; available from http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/11/news/bangla.php.

Rahman, Waliur. Is Bangladesh heading towards disaster? BBC News Dhaka, 8 January 2008. available from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6241263.stm; accessed 24 September 2008. Transparency International. 2008

Corruption Perception Index. accessed 24 September 2008; available from http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2008/cpi2008/cpi_2008_table.

Heitzman, James and Worden, Robert, ed. Bangladesh: A Country Study. Washington: GPO for the Library of Congress, 1989. available from http://countrystudies.us/bangladesh/; accessed 22 September 2008.

“The Kissinger Tilt.” Time Magazine, 17 January 1972. available from http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,877618,00.html; accessed 26 September 2008

The World Factbbok. Bangladesh. Central Intelligence Agency. available from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.html accessed 24 September 2008.

Ulph, Stephen. Bangladesh still in denial of terrorism scourge. The Jamestown Foundation. Terrorism Focus Volume 2, Issue 9.12 May 2005. available from http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2369692; accessed 28 September 2008.

United Nations Developmental Programme. “Human Development Reports”. available from http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/; accessed 27 September 2009.

South Asia Terrorism Portal. Bangladesh Assessment 2008. available from http://www.satp.org/ satporgtp/countries/bangladesh/; accessed 25 September 2008.

South Ossetia Independence Claim – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

SUMMARY

The Caucus region is located at a crossroads of civilizations and an economic artery for the
petroleum industry that fuels the world economy. This intersection is a historic battleground for control
by outside empires and a local struggle for autonomous rule and ethnic survival. Over the centuries
Moscow has influenced the region albeit not effectively yet nevertheless still the Kremlin confidently
dominates the region. The Republic of Georgia, fiercely independent in the early stages of
independence, began to establish new ties to lessen its dependency on Russia. As modern international
law creeps into the old Soviet empire, and the region adapts to globalization, the Kremlin continues its
twopronged foreign policy. South Ossetia has become a usable pawn for Russian foreign policy as
political and military power seem to trump rule of law regarding Georgian sovereignty. The region has
seen a decade of strife and Russia’s actions in the region not only fuel conflict but are not aligned with
international law.

INTERPRETATION – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz Academic Research

Has South Ossetia successfully obtained recognizable independence and what are the
consequences for the mixed ethnic populations within its border?

EVIDENCE – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

conventions
The territorial integrity of the Republic of Georgia has been legally guaranteed by several
treaties and resolutions over the past nine decades. Commencing with the 1924 Constitution of the
Soviet Union Article 4: “Each one of the member Republics retains the right to freely withdraw from
the Union.”¹ Further examination of the document states the existences and formation of autonomous
“oblast” but grants no rights of withdrawal to become a sovereign state . The Republic of Georgia also
ascended to the CIS in December 1993 after the dissolving of the Soviet Union. Furthermore we find
recognition of Georgia and its sovereign rights in the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS)
Charter Section I. Purposes and Principles Article 1 and Article 3.² This right is clearly stated in the
first article:

“The Commonwealth is based on the foundations of the equality of all of its members. The
member states are independent and equal subjects of international law.”

And in the third the duties of charter members:

In order to achieve the purposes of the Commonwealth the member states, based on
generally recognized norms of international law and the Helsinki Final Act, shall build
their relations in accordance with the following interconnected and equal principles:
respect of the sovereignty of the member states, the inalienable rights of peoples to self
determination and the right to determine their fate without outside interference; the
inviolability of state borders, the recognition of existing borders and the rejection of
unlawful territorial annexations; the territorial integrity of states and the rejection of any
actions directed towards breaking up alien territory; rejection of force or the threat of
force against the political independence of a member state; resolution of disputes by
peaceful means in such a way that international peace, security and fairness are not
threatened; supremacy of international law in interstate relations; noninterference in
internal and external affairs of each other.

Additionally the Republic of Georgia is a member of the United Nations (31 July 1992) with all
the rights and duties of sovereign nation. The Russian Federation seems to disregard both international
law and its own constitution in its dealing with the situation in South Ossetia. The Russian Federation’s
support of South Ossetia is promoting civil unrest and resultant violence in the Republic of Georgia
disregarding the UN Charter Chapter 1 Article 1:1. “The Organization is based on the principle of the
sovereign equality of all its Members.” In addition the current Constitution of the Russian Federation
Article 15 proclaims:

1. Universally recognized principles and norms of international law as well as international
agreements of the Russian Federation should be an integral part of its legal system. If an
international agreement of the Russian Federation establishes rules, which differ from those
stipulated by law, then the rules of the international agreement shall be applied.
Moscow also declares the universal right of selfdetermination for a people as a smoke screen to
disrupt the internal affairs in Georgia while attempting to annex territory.3 The one and half year civil
war in South Ossetia ignited on the government in Tbilisi decision to have Georgian as the official
language. No official action was taken to repress Ossetian culture in a systematic way. When we
examine line 2 of the UN International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; “The
3UN Charter Article 2(4) All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the
territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the UN.

States Parties to the present Covenant undertake to guarantee that the rights enunciated in the present
Covenant will be exercised without discrimination of any kind as to race, colour, sex, language,
religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status.”⁴ We can not
regard the use of an official language as discrimination against an ethnic minority. The remaining 27%
of Georgia’s ethnic minorities did not protest or rebel this decision. The reaction by South Ossetia
starting a small ethnic civil war does not seem to fit the profile of recognizable republic. Further
complicating the issue is Russia’s issuing passports to ethnic South Ossetians. The nature of the civil
conflict may reveal further the violations of international law. South Ossetians who may be charged
with crimes will have immunity as the Russian Federation’ Constitution does not allow for extradition
of its citizens.⁵

Throughout the previously cited treaties no guarantee for the right of selfdetermination or state
sovereignty are granted to a former Soviet oblast. Earlier in the 20th century the League of Nations
charter called for selfdetermination of colonized peoples. However the South Ossetian population was
never colonized but rather migrated to Georgia to avoid the Mongol invasions. The autonomous rights
of South Ossetians to use their language as a Soviet oblast were not transferable as a duty for the
Republic of Georgia. There is no legal basis under treaty law which South Ossetia can justify its
attempt at independence. Treaties regarding territorial borders of sovereign states are selfexecuting
clearly giving the Republic of Georgia dominion over its domestic affairs.
custom

Various tests are used by the international customs of nations to determine the status of a
belligerent community and resultant recognized rights and duties. South Ossetia may claim legal
international personality by de facto control over population and terrain but its ability to effectively
govern is questionable. At least one third of South Ossetia’s populace is ethnic Georgian and denied the
right to vote therefore it does not have complete support of the populace. Secondly by disenfranchising
ethnic Georgians who refuse to change his or her citizenship to Russian, the election results have met
with near universally protest. While acquisition of international personality can be accepted if done
outside constitutional norms, the civil warlike nature of the conflict and added outside influence of the
Kremlin’s agitation into Georgian affairs cast doubt on the South Ossetians claim.
Subjectively examining South Ossetia as a future state one discovers an isolated insurgency that
economical survives through illegal trade in arms, drugs, and counterfeit currency. Violation of
International Convention for the Suppression of Counterfeiting Currency sends a signal to the
international community that South Ossetia permits acts that disrupt public order in other states.6 Such
toleration by the de facto government impedes its acceptance as a recognized state. If these internal
problems are overcome, the fact that the Caucus mountain range divides South Ossetia from North
Ossetia negates a substantial economic link urging the need to be annexed northward. An isolated
insurgency without such ties has small chance of developing into a peace loving nation that could fulfill
international legal obligations. Approximately 130,000 Ossetians refugees were created by this move
for independence. 100 thousand fled to North Ossetia and 30 thousand into Georgia, placing a heavy
burden on the economies. This brings to the table an economic issue that the selfproclaimed Republic
of South Ossetia will need to deal with in addition to political questions. The disregard for fair elections

and dependency on Russia for protection displays not only inability to be independent but also shows
no intent of respecting international law. South Ossetians are one of over ten different ethnolinguist
groups in Georgia and a mere three percent of the total population.7 Customary international law
follows that issues regarding ethnolinguistic disputes are a domestic affair and nations have no right to
interfere through subversive intervention.8
general principles of law
Elections in South Ossetia have been conducted without universal and equal suffrage. The
requirement of surrendering Georgian citizenship to obtain a Russian one for the right to vote has
deemed the election results and referendums in South Ossetia to be invalid by the international
community.9 One may also view the South Ossetians choice of first resisting Tbilisi by use of arms as
counter to the generally accepted principles of law. South Ossetia did not exhaust all legal and political
means to resolve their grievances but rather chose violence.

JUDICIAL DECISIONS – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The Russian Federation has issued passports to all etnnic Ossetians in South Ossetia in an attempt to
extend its influence in the region. With the inhherent duty to protect their citizens from violence and
establish a Russian passport as a requirement to vote. One can question the validity of such bestowed
citizenship. In the Nottebohm Case the court ruled that no durable link existed in substituting one
nationality to the next in order to fall under the protection of a neutral state.10 South Ossetians, though
linguistically different, have been associated with Georgia for over 800 years. Moscow’s attempt to
project nationality in hopes of limiting liability falls below minimum standards accepted by the
international community.¹¹

CONCLUSION – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The legal problems with resolving conflicts with the original Cold War twins, Korea and
Vietnam, seem minor in comparison current conflicts that were frozen during the reign of the Soviet
Empire. As modern international law and liberal idealism thaw these areas, centuries old differences
are reemerging. Most stubborn of all is Moscow’s inability to relinquish control over its former soviet
republics. The concept of selfdetermination for a people from the early 20th century are being stretched
beyond its intended purpose of resolving situations in Europe and her colonies. The Kremlin is
simultaneously using Czarist techniques in foreign policy while at the same time trying to ascend to
modern treaty law for acceptance in the World Trade Organization. Situations present in the Caucus
region can not just be put before a court hearing. The short comings of modern international law with
the United Nations being unable to resolve it, will take patience and negotiation for a peaceful long
term settlement. This approach could have been taken in the first place to save thousands of lives as the
Soviet union disintegrated.

COUNTER ARGUEMENTS – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Modern law does have its shortcomings when applied to ethnolinguistic mixed population
striving for autonomy. The nightmare of the Balkans during Yugoslavia dismemberment under the
watchful eye of European Union could have been avoided. The Balkans conflict was in a historical
region of influence yet they did little. Russia has been involved with Caucus region for centuries even
having been invited in by Georgia to protect it from Muslim forces from Persia. Without the Kremlin’s
willingness to become involved with the region’s peacekeeping duties, who will? The West may
declare South Ossetian de facto independence unlawful and unwilling to support its obtainment of de
jure sovereignty but at what cost of lives and properties will they again ignore a region? South
Ossetians are former citizens of the Soviet Union, the issuing of Russian Federation passports has been
compliant with ours laws. And most importantly where does the United Nations or any nation draw the
line and create a status quo for judging these types of conflicts? Each region is different and requires a
unique solution. The issue of equality among sovereigns must be balanced against the equality among
peoples.

1 1924 Constitution of the USSR http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/1924_Constitution_of_the_USSR#ARTICLE_2 accessed:
12 November 2006.

2 Charter of the Commonwealth of Independent States http://www.therussiasite.org/legal/laws/CIScharter.html accessed: 5
November 2006.

4 International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights http://www.unhchr.ch/html/menu3/b/a_cescr.htm entered into force: 3 January 1976 accessed 818 November 2006.

5 The constitution of the Russian Federation; Adopted 12 December 1993. Article 61(1) A citizen of the Russian Federation may not be deported from the Russian Federation or extradited to another state. (2) The Russian Federation shall guarantee its citizens protection and patronage abroad.

6 International Convention for the Suppression of Counterfeiting Currency Entry into force: 22 February 1931, http://untreaty.un.org/sample/EnglishInternetBible/partII/Treaty14a.htm. Accessed: 16 November 2006

7Republic of Georgia by Georgi Kokochashvili Norwegian Refugee Council. Tbilisi, regional office http://www.angelfire.com/ga/georgian/history.html accessed: 6 November 2006

8 von Glahn and Taulbee, Law Among Nations, An Introduction to Public International Law 8th ed.(New York: Pearson Longman 2007)

9 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Article 25(b) To vote and to be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors. entered into force: 23 March 1976. http://www.unhchr.ch/html/menu3/b/a_ccpr.htm, accessed: 22 November 2006

10 The Nottebohm Case (Lichtenstein v. Guatemala), International Court of Justice 1953.

11 von Glahn and Taulbee, Law Among Nations, An Introduction to Public International Law 8th ed.(New York: Pearson Longman 2007) 207.

BIBLIOGRAPHY – South Ossetia Independence Claim – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Alic, Jen. 15 NOV 2006. “Kosovo vs South Ossetia”. International Relations and Security Network (ISN).http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=16920. Accessed: 20 NOV 2006.

Chew, Allen. An Atlas of Russian History, Eleven Centuries of Changing Borders. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1970.

Mchedlishvili, Nona. 6 NOV 2006 “Russia: Ossetia Pipeline Adds Fuel To The Georgia Fire”. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/11/13dacbc17f2e4b99 8e88079ca5a7f35f.html. Accessed: 14 NOV 2006

Riasanovsky, Nicholas. A History of Russia, 2nd ed. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1969.

Rousseau, Richard. 10 NOV 2006. “South Ossetia’s Illegal Referendum”. Georgia Today. http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=1932. Accessed 20 NOV 2006.
Von Glabyn, Gerbard and Taulbee, James Larry. Law Among Nations, An Introduction to Public International Law. 8th ed. New York: Pearson Longman, 2007.

The S.S. Lotus Judgment No. 9, Sept. 7, 1927 – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

League of Nations Official Journal: Parties: France and Turkey

SUMMARY

An incident of collision occurred on August 2nd, 1926 between the French mail steamer Lotus and Turkish coal transport vessel BozKouri located on open seas outside either country’s territorial jurisdiction. The BozKouri sank and eight out of eighteen Turkish nationals on board perished. The Lotus proceeded to its destination Constantinople, Turkey where the French officer on watch during the incident, Monsieur Demons, reported the incident. There he was arrested, put on trial, and convicted of offenses against Turkish citizens and property under Turkish Civil Codes. His sentence was for a duration of eighty days imprisonment and fined twenty two Turkish pounds.

The French Government mounted a protest stating they were not notified of his arrest and that
Monsieur Demons be released from imprisonment and handed over the French Authorities. They also
stated they had the right to jurisdiction under the Treaty of Lausanne which Turkey was also a signatory
of. Turkey declined stating criminal offenses were committed against their citizens and property and
they under their domestic civil codes had the jurisdiction in detaining and prosecuting Monsieur
Demons. To resolve the case both parties promised to abide by the decision of League of nation’s
Permanent Court of Justice. The court decided in favor of Turkish authorities in their actions and
monsieur Demons was not due any compensation.

INTERPRETATION – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz Academic Research

The question was that international law did not limit jurisdictional application of Turkey’s domestic
civil codes.

EVIDENCE – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz Academic Research

conventions

France’s desired the Treaty of Lausanne Article 15 to be interpreted to demonstrate Turkey violated the
principals of general international law. Drafting amendments and reservations among the powers
resulted in a clause limiting Turkish jurisdiction to Turkish soil was omitted. Italy and France had
reservations to this amendment but did not have them included in the treaty. Common consent among
the signatory parties was given to refer to the general principles of international law in regards to
jurisdiction. The arguments for limiting Turkish jurisdiction during the treaty drafting could not be
discovered by the court nor were these arguments brought forward by agents of the French Government.
The Treaty should have been specific instead of leaving interpretation open to the generalities of
customary law.

custom

France’s efforts to demonstrate custom of who had civil jurisdiction was not relevant to the actual
question of Turkey’s limiting the extension of its jurisdiction in a criminal case. First many States had
previously chose not to act in extending their jurisdiction in similar cases involving criminal acts and
there was no international law preventing them from doing so, their inaction was not due to an
obligation but a choice. Secondly some had extended their jurisdiction to prosecute crimes, the court
citing a murder committed by a British national while on board an American vessel in international
waters that was pursued by the British Government. The wide spread usage or a continued duration of
the practice of limiting jurisdiction in criminal cases could not be demonstrated.

general principles of law

The action of Turkey detaining and prosecuting Monsieur Demons did not cause injustice. It is generally accepted by domestic legal systems to make reparations in cases involving a violation of their domestic laws. The pursuit of redressing the charges of manslaughter were legally executed.

judicial decisions

If the court acted in denying Turkey the right to extend jurisdiction in a criminal case it could not base
it on previous consistent judicial decisions in similar cases.

writings of jurists and publicists

These were cited by the court as equally supporting both view points. The court stated that just because
some jurists’ writings state a wide application of principles in regards to jurisdiction in such cases this
does not make them into law.

International Telecommunication Union (ITU) – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The largest man-made structure on the planet is the immense telecommunication network. From mobile phones to communication satellites, this system has become a
seamless part of daily lives and international relations. Being one of the fastest growing aspects of the 20th century, an era of great strife for humanity, one would expect its regulation to have been equally chaotic. However, its importance to modern society has established it as a model of cooperation not often found amongst sovereign states. The international governmental organization mandated to oversee this is the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Virtually every member of the United nations(UN) has acceded to its convention and it has defectively reigned although it has no enforcement authority.¹

The ITU is a unique model for cooperation and in this easy a chronological description of its creation and past functions will be used to understand the issues it faces today. The rapid advance of telecommunications has paved the way for increased interconnection of states leading to overlapping of jurisdictions and calls for reform. The success of the ITU as a cooperative body has stood the test of time but as one shall learn, may soon either evolve into a governing body or become a political battleground as globalization’s unknown course rushes into the future. The ITU is a specialized UN agency created in 1947, revised in 1967, then reformed in 1997. A UN member states accede by signing two documents, the ITU constitution and convention.

Withdrawal is possible but has an effective date one year after signing out. Membership is possible for non-UN members in the private and public organizations and requires approval by vote by two-thirds of member states. These are called sectors members, are a national entity, and have non-voting status. Assisting in development of standards and supporting/financing study groups are its function.² Additionally, Associate Members may join the ITU, also non-voting, to assist in study groups. Voting rights are only allocated to UN Member States, Sector and Associate Members views and advice are represented by their respective member state. Currently
there are 191 UN Members, 575 Sector Members and 150 Associate Members. Headquartered in Geneva, a plenipotentiary conference of members convenes every
four or five years, at which it elects an administrative council of 29 members. Daily functions are managed by a permanent General Secretariat. The ITU employees 702
people from 83 different countries. Employment attempts to promote diversity while hiring only extremely qualified experts. The stringent qualifications for employment aid in its acceptance of its Recommendations by sovereign states when setting international standards.³ To accomplish its tasks, 197 different activities, the ITU has a biennial budget of US$320 million. The mechanism for determining dues is based on a specific unit and members donate according to financial ability to pay a fraction or multiple fractions of a unit. The system is somewhat complex and instead a simple breakdown of contributions is as follows:

• Member States, which account for 67.3%
• Sector Members contribute 11.4%
• Associates contribute 0.9%
• Sale of publications, project execution, satellite notifications 15.1%.4
• Income from interest (5.3% of total funding).

The complexity of the world’s telecommunication has the ITU departmentalized in three sectors: Standardization ,Radio communication, and Development. The basic
mandate of the ITU is to maintain, extend, and harmonize international cooperation in all aspects of telecommunications.5 The main areas of concern are:

• Standardize and regulate international radio and telecommunications.
• Extend and improve telecommunication by allotting radio frequencies.
• Encourages the establishment of low rates.
• Perfect communications in rescue operations.⁶

Standardize, extend, improve, encourage, and perfect are smooth words which are rarely used by a Realist entrenched the concept of Westphalian sovereignty..
Furthermore, its convention’s preamble states, “While fully recognizing the sovereign right of each State to regulate its telecommunication”. The concept of
telecommunication and its ease of penetrating borders can be a threat to a sovereign state.

So how is it, without the means of enforcement, does the ITU accomplish its mandate? There is an ITU strategy:

Stay on top of technological advancement, taking input from interested actors.
Make recommendations which receive formal international recognition.
Suggest mechanisms for disputes.
Considers impacts on all actors- states, organizations, and citizens.

The uniqueness of its function is in the method of cooperation. Since telecommunication affects states, regions, businesses, individuals , and non-governmental entities, one would assume an overwhelming amount of conflicts of interests.

The ITU has five major factors allotting its operation– 1) its longstanding as the accepted body for the task by the international community. 2) the preemptive nature
of avoiding conflicts 3) its non-political nature, choosing pragmatism over international law to overcome politics 4) experts that recommend the best possible solution (and consequences. 5) An accepted dispute resolution mechanism.

The can easily comprehend the above items 1 though 4 and only 5 needs explanation. The ITU will provide the parties involved “special assistance”, neutral & professional
advice. Having no real enforcement power the ITU has four options states can choose in settling disputes.⁷

1) Use the existing bi-lateral or multi-lateral instruments between states.
2) Agree upon any other method
3) Arbitration- single arbitrator* or a collegiate court composed of 3 members
a) one appointed by each party or side
b) then jointly select a third, neutral member.
*If no agreeable single arbitrator is found, each side nominates one and then is selected by the ITU Secretary drawing lots. This process is also used to determine the third
member of a collegiate court if none is agreed upon.
4) Optional Additional Protocol- a portion of the ITU member countries have accepted a compulsory arbitration. This based on the extraordinary expertise of the ITU and its avoidance of political matters.

Still, these decisions are not binding. The arguments against these methods is based on the extreme importance of telecommunications. Adherents for change demand more power to settle disputes. Those in favor of these methods counter with historical facts, actors are more likely to resolve a problem quickly when offered various means of resolution.⁸ Being the second oldest international organization makes a chronological look at past challenges and adaptations a challenge. However, it is essential to understand the effects telecommunications has had on sovereignty. There is exponentially rapid development in the relationship between international communications and issues such as positive and negative human rights. Understanding how this will play out, how it will be resolved, and who shall decide in the near future, are a few of the questions. Yet in telecommunications the unforeseen has been the status quo. The ITU states, ” international cooperation among peoples…”, but as one shall see, the definition of “peoples” has changed. The 19th century ushered in the telegram (1844) and a host of issues, one being access to telegram service by the general public (1854). A decade later multilateral and bilateral treaties were established to send early communiqués via telegraph across state boundaries.⁸

The conglomeration of protocols
diminished the effectiveness of state to state communication. Then in Paris in 1865, 20
states signed an agreement creating the International Telegraph Convention. This
would indicate a positive move in the international relations but in reality it monopolized
the system into a sovereign club as they were free to regulate access and tariffs upon
their populations. Telegraph services, and the newly invented telephone,came under
governmental jurisdiction. Britain was excluded from the union until 1871 until it finally
nationalized its privately owned communication system.⁹ The basic objectives of the
union are still in existence today. Sovereign states had surrendered little authority over
their dominions and received tremendous benefits from this regime.
The early twentieth century ushered in radio communications at an astronomical rate
without a viable regime to oversee it. A prime example from 1902 on the chaos involved
a well wishing Prince Henry of Prussia departing the United States after a visit with
President Theodore Roosevelt. The radio telegram sent on a Telefunken unit from his
sailing vessel was refused a relay by a US-based operator on the grounds that they
were receiving a the transmission on a Marconi unit. This led to the first International
Radio Telegram conference (1906) in Berlin. Oddly, the United States was hesitant to
attend until it was deemed constitutional legitimate for the federal government to

become involved in this area of commerce. The issues became slightly political as more
sates joined various communications unions that covered each new technological
development. European powers began insisting on voting rights for their colonies to
increase the weight of their influence on regulations.
The ITU as we know today , an umbrella for all aspects of telecommunications, was
founded by a merger in 1934 of the original ITU (1865) and International Radiotelegraph
Convention (1906) both based in Europe. The importance of this fact is that attempts
were being made in Washington in producing a regime. In 1927, while the IRC began
allocated frequency bands to different radio services, the International Radio
Consultative Committee (CCIR) was established at a conference held in Washington
D.C.¹⁰ In the following decades there was an explosion in the number of international
shortwave radio stations and arrival of television broadcasting, increased conflicts
between ideological systems, capitalism versus communism, a world war, and a
collapse of the European colonial system. The 1934 merger creating ITU withstood it,
had separate competing regimes been in place, today’s world of cooperative
telecommunication would be a distant fantasy.
The modern ITU from 1947 was established as a UN specialized agency right at the
start of the Cold War. One would expect the ITU to be involved with disputes regarding
Voice of America and Soviet broadcasts but this is not the case. As sovereign states still
monopolized content and the ITU regulating standards and frequencies. The real
challenge was ushered with the successful launching of the Soviet’s satellite Sputnik in

Soon the ITU would be faced with some very difficult decisions, from what angle
should they regulate this new technology, on the basis of international law during an era
of opposing ideological systems or pragmatism?11
The issue was settled by a decision in 1964 by the Kennedy administration, realizing
treaty negotiations would be too complex, to allow access to US communication
satellites to further increase cooperation and prosperity amongst its democratic
partners.12 As per usual, the ITU began studying the question in 1959 before the issue
reached an apex. The pragmatic recommendations in allocating frequencies and uses
put forth by the ITU were accepted by both East and West. The real challenges to the
ITU were to soon arrive and the lock down on control of telecommunications by
sovereign states was soon to be challenged.
The transistorized age of communications created an era of change that one today
takes for granted. This change opened up the state monopoly on communications. Two
theories, the little bang and big bang, attempt to explain this. The former in that the
massive influx of new technologies developed by private industry overwhelmed state
telecoms. In the latter case, due to pressure from private industries and consumers,
9
governments lessened their grip on domestic markets.13 States had been using
domestic markets in a pyramid scheme. High tariffs on international communications
supported the domestic telephone systems, high domestic telephone tariffs supported a
monopoly allowing high wage union jobs, and additional income from controlling all
telecommunications help support domestic postal systems. These changes were
resulted in a revision of the ITU in 1967 that began allowing Sector and Associate
members.
In the following decades, both international competition in telecommunications and the
voices of lesser developed countries (LDC) increased, resulting in the opening of
domestic markets to foreign competition. In 1985 the ITU responded to LDC demands
and every country was allocated at least one satellite orbit and band of frequencies.14
The previous system allotted on a first come, first serve basis. Soon afterwards, the ITU
began providing technical assistance to LDC and reshape its image.15 The 1990’s saw a
major shift as markets themselves began controlling telecommunications as opposed to
states. As private companies began launching satellites and packaging ditial services,
the ITU in 1992 reformed itself to adapt to the changing world.16 To increase flexibility, it
divided responsibilities into three sectors; Standardization , Radio Communication, and

10
Development. Consequently, consumer protection these reforms began adding a layer
of protection from market controlled telecommunications, something that was difficult to
accomplish while states reigned over domestic markets
Before examining today’s challenges, there are two past incidents regarding politics
and international law, that shed light on the future of the ITU. In 1982, the Arab States
began using the plenipotentiary meeting as pulpit on which to vent political ideology
condemning Israel. This was quickly ended when the United States threatened to pull
out of the conference and union.17 The concept here is that the state financing a
majority of the ITU budget could influence the behavior of sates in the union. This may
have ramifications for the ITU as the world’s wealth is shifting to various axes. And on a
side political note, many Arab states add reservations to agreements at conferences
stating, ““that the signature and possible ratification by their respective Governments of
the Final Acts of this Conference, should not be valid for the ITU Member under the
name“Israel”, and in no way whatsoever imply its recognition by these Governments.”
An interesting thorn in the pawn of international law was the explosion of pirate radio
stations (PRS) starting in 1959. As member states accept the norms of international
telecommunications under Recommendations of the ITU, the PRS slipped through both
the cracks of international law and ITU convention. Freedom to transmit from vessels
11
outside sovereign territories is permissible the High Seas Convention yet is contrary to
ITU regulations. Without the power to enforce regulations, it must rely on the state of a
ship’s registry to do so, and it may not be capable or care to.
The ITU forward two solutions to combat this but they ended up being ineffective.
When the conventions were modified to include floating vessels from illegal
broadcasting, PRS only needed to attach to the sea floor to skirt this regulation. The
next attempt was to allow port authorities to search vessels for equipment used by PRS
when docked. But they could only report their findings and not take any action. These
examples only illustrate the fragile nature of the regime in regards to enforcement.
The 21st Century’s impact on telecommunications by the use of millions of devices are
not only raising calls for additional authority to be embellished in the ITU, but also is
forcing a merger between different international regimes. Glottalization for example is
causing a new hybrid form of telecommunication as mobile phones and the Internet
become inseparable. How shall international regimes distribute authority over the
Internet, telecommunication, trade in services, and developing affordable access? If one
examines this chart from created by the Working Group on Internet Governance, a brief
discussion can be made possible mergers, conflicts , or redundancy in jurisdiction that
may occur.

Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) is a non-profit us
based company acting under an agreement to control the ARPA addressing system of
the Internet.18 As telecommunication and the Internet merge the question has been put
forth on why much of the Internet is under is under US control.19 Counter to promoting
technology to assist LDC, up until October 2009 the system was based on Latin
characters excluding a majority of the world’s population.20 But if ICANN’s

13
responsibilities are shifted to the ITU will sovereign states gain more domestic control
as the only voting members. The ITU convention preamble clearly states , “While fully
recognizing the sovereign right of each State to regulate its telecommunication.” If we
combine this with the fact ITU financial support comes from state donations and the
world’s fastest growing economy is steered by an authoritarian regime, will the future
Internet be steered according to the wealthiest actor? Will technological assistance in
the future to LDC be a way for a authoritarian regulator of the Internet to extend power?
And if sovereign states reel in control rather than market forces, what will be the impact
on the citizenry? Hedgemons often set standards and in this age of information its
impact is unknown.21
If the duties of WIPO are transfered to the ITU, then the entire nature of the system
changes into a police security oversight agencies? But then again where would
enforcement lie? Where the copyright material was violated, where the violators
committed the act, or which country the violators are citizens of? This issue obviously
needs to stay clear of merging with the ITU. The WTO currently ignores the billions of
dollars in traded services flowing through ITU jurisdiction, what if they were negotiate
settlements contrary to current norms?22 Would the ITU respond to encroach on its
territory with a Recommendation, or allow international law to win out as stated in its

14
first method of dispute settlement? The result would be a whole new ITU. Since the
current system adapts and is a long respected regime, some cross over in jurisdiction
should be considered an inconvenience. Finally, UNCTAD’s responsibilities in
developing e-commerce might benefit from the overlapping due to ITU expertise and
extensive non-state sector and associate members.
Reality is how one perceives it and the inclusive, professional, and objective
operations of the ITU are model for other UN agencies. But in a evolving world with
these crossover mandates and jurisdictions, it is surprising to see the current list of
topics roaming the headquarter halls in Geneva.23
• Accessibility : Achieving equitable communication for everyone
• Confronting the financial crisis : Its impact on the ICT industry
• Climate Change and ITU : Promoting the use of ICTs to combat climate change
• Cyber security, Spam & Cybercrime : Confidence and security in the use of ICTs
• Connecting the unconnected by 2015 : Bridging the digital divide
• Saving lives : Telecommunication is critical at all phases of disaster management
• Networks of the future : Next Generation Networks & Global Standards
It seems that everything under the sun comes up on their radar screen and crosses
over with a multitude of UN agencies, governments, international governmental and
non-government organizations, as well as businesses and local agencies. The guiding
instrument as a recommending body may either be further elevated or completely
reformed into a more authoritative body under these kinds of circumstances. How will
23 International Telecommunication Union Website . http://www.itu.int. Accessed 28 OCT 2009.
15
the agency react when constituent members begin to engage in cyber wars? Is this an
aggressive act condemned by the UN Charter or does it require the ITU to be involved?
Will member states remain and support the ITU if a cyber war occurs? With no
enforcement mechanism, will its internationally recognized norm of Recommendations
be an adequate measure in a cyber conflict.
The ITU has been extremely effective in dealing with the most rapid changes in human
history by the most humble means. Its fundamental objectives since inception have
always been at the forefront trumping politics and conflict. Even sovereign states have
come to terms over technological issues in this arena while denouncing each other at
the podium of the UN General Assembly. Indeed, the world has realized it cannot
function in the modern age without the ITU. The challenging issues which are now
called for to be included into its mandate will only drag in politics as usually. Its motto is
“connecting the world”, not “correcting the world.” A regime that attempts to provide
fairness and objectivity to benefit all members, may need to be isolated from social,
economic, environmental, and political issues. If not we may find the answer to the first
question sent via telecommunications, “What has God wrought?”

1 The exceptions are Palau, East Timor, and Taiwan. The Palestinian Authority has observer status.

2 Many international agencies which set standards do not have this unique characteristic. 3 The word, “Recommendations”, is capitalized when referring to the ITU, symbolizing its acceptance.

3 The word, “Recommendations”, is capitalized when referring to the ITU, symbolizing its acceptance.

4 Limited free information only available, via the ITU website, as required by a UN agencies.

5 International Telecommunication Union Website . http://www.itu.int. Accessed 28 OCT 2009.

6 Medical transports in conflicts are an exception as they are permitted to broadcast in any available frequencies in chaotic situations under “Protocols Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949” superseding ITU Recommendations.

7 International Telecommunication Union Website . http://www.itu.int. Accessed 28 OCT 2009.

8 Lacking standardized equipment, messages were walked over borders, and retransmitted to the next frontier.

9 Williams, M.B. “International Standards for Telecommunications.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Vol. 289, No. 1356,(1978): 186.

10 Concerning fixed, maritime and aeronautical mobile, broadcasting, amateur and experimental radio.

11 Dalfe,C.M., André Bissonnette, Pierre Juneau, and Ivan Vlasic. “International Legal Problems of Direct Satellite Broadcasting.”The University of Toronto Law Journal, Vol. 20, No. 3 (1970): 331

12 The US launched its first first geostationary communications satellite Syncom-1 in 1963.

13 Kishan, Daya. “Lost in Space.” Foreign Policy, No. 124 (2001): 70.

14 Staple, Gregory. “The New World Satellite Order: A Report from Geneva.” The American Journal of International Law, Vol. 80, No. 3 (1986): 700.

15 Röller, Lars-Hendrik and Waverman, Leonard. “Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 91,No. 4 (2001): 912.

16 Peter Cowhey. “The International Telecommunications Regime: The Political Roots of Regimes for High Technology.” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (1990): 179.

17 Gegg, Donna. “Capitalizing on National Self-Interest: The Management of International Telecommunication Conflict by the International Telecommunication Union.” Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol. 45, No. 1, (1982) 42.

18 ARPA is a backronym for Address and Routing Parameter Area, the Internet addressing system.

19 The U.S. private sector controls about 85 percent of the Internet’s underlying infrastructure. European nations often complain about the legality of the US government assigning authority to a private organization. Andrew Muarry and Colin Scott. “Controlling the New Media: Hybrid Responses to New Forms of Power.” The Modern Law Review, Vol. 65, No. 4 (2002): 516.

20 For example [email protected] , will soon be accessed by Путин@кремль.рф.

21 Lazer, David.”Regulatory Capitalism as a Networked Order: The International System as an Informational Network.“ Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 598, (2005): 52.

22 Gilston, Samuel. “A Weekly Report for Business Executives on U.S. Trade Policies, Negotiations, Legislation, Export Controls and Trade Laws.” Samuel Gilston Vol. 26, No. 48 (2006). 1-2.

   BIBLIOGRAPHY - Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz

Cowhey, Peter. “The International Telecommunications Regime: The Political Roots of
Regimes for High Technology.” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (1990): 169-
199.
Dalfe,C.M., André Bissonnette, Pierre Juneau, and Ivan Vlasic. “International Legal
Problems of Direct Satellite Broadcasting.”The University of Toronto Law Journal, Vol.
20, No. 3 (1970): 314-332
Gegg, Donna. “Capitalizing on National Self-Interest: The Management of International
Telecommunication Conflict by the International Telecommunication Union.” Law and
Contemporary Problems, Vol. 45, No. 1, (1982): pp. 37-52.
Gilston,Samuel. “A Weekly Report for Business Executives on U.S. Trade Policies,
Negotiations, Legislation, Export Controls and Trade Laws.” Samuel Gilston Vol. 26,
No. 48 (2006): 1-2.
Kishan, Daya. “Lost in Space.” Foreign Policy, No. 124 (2001): 70-71
Lazer, David.”Regulatory Capitalism as a Networked Order: The International System
as an Informational Network.“ Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social
Science, Vol. 598, (2005) 52-66.
Röller, Lars-Hendrik and Waverman, Leonard. “Telecommunications Infrastructure and
Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach.” The American Economic
Review, Vol. 91, No. 4 (2001): 909-923
Williams, M.B. “International Standards for Telecommunications.” Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical
Sciences, Vol. 289, No. 1356,(1978): 185-205
Murray, Andrew and Scott, Colin. “Controlling the New Media: Hybrid Responses to
New Forms of Power.” The Modern Law Review, Vol. 65, No. 4 (2002): 491-516.
Staple, Gregory. “The New World Satellite Order: A Report from Geneva.” The
American Journal of International Law, Vol. 80, No. 3 (1986): 699-720

Eastern European Politics – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

An independent study of Eastern Europe has offered me an opportunity to pinpoint crucial areas briefly covered in traditional studies. In selecting an advanced study of the Balkans and the Eastern European countries before, during, and after Soviet domination, not only enlightened me to its historical and economic development but also the impact on world events. Often this region appears in history only when major states interact and it is if these nations did not exist otherwise. My majoring in International studies requires the development of analytical skills in a world sphere as compared to a vacuum. For example Napoleon’s loss at Waterloo redirected a century of continental history while the Battle of Mohacs changed Hungarian politics for centuries yet the weight given to the events is often imbalanced. When comparing the United States history some of our actions in the 1930’s to save agricultural sector by governmental buying at guaranteed prices then dumping at low prices on the world market are praised as saving the nation from socialism. Yet at the same time this depressing of agricultural products prices in Southeastern Europe devastated their economies paving the way for right-wing takeovers.

The cultural uniqueness of the Balkans region however is overshadowed by the clash of civilizations and the failure of the major powers to resolve the centuries of conflicts. The new frontier in political science with the end of the Cold War will be at the borders of major civilizations, the Trans-Caucuses, Southeast Asian Peninsula, Central Asian Republics. As we awaken from our Cold War attitude that these regions were not just the battle grounds for super powers but historical time bombs that have been reactivated. By examining each of the Balkan states I have not focused on just learning the encyclopedic facts of who lead the nation or which and how much of what crop they produce rather the internal and external forces that have shaped the political environment that they are currently in. The analysis of the lingering problems in the region will help me better understand and apply a thorough analysis of any multi-cultural irredentist lands I may encounter. Instead of a major review of facts I would like to present my opinions on possible solutions for the current situation in Eastern and Southeastern Europe.

The exposure to Eastern European history has remarkably raised my comprehension of American and Russian history. Observing changes in a domestic policies of a major state having devastating effects on the populace of Eastern Europe. Current development in this region which was retarded under Soviet control has again returned to where it left off in 1919. A spark of democracy followed by a shift to the political right and entrenchment into a nation sate. As is the post-World War I era, the post-Soviet era finds the region entangled in legacy. This new flat world has eroded some of the legacy that has retarded economic growth for the Asian Tigers, Ireland, and India as prime examples. Eastern European attitudes have returned to previous goals along previous ideologies. rather than embracing this new world. When states are becoming less important, the governments seem to retreating into self centered policies. The attempted ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia has in reality wiped clean any ideas of foreign investment in the region for years to come. Recent Polish elections have shifted both the Sejm and presidency to the right-wing platforms. Combined with recent confrontations with Russia over trade and energy has taken Poland from possible status as a link in Europe to a thorn. Current events in Moldavia have bridges in cities barricaded halting trade, the reason a dispute over which alphabet to use in schools. The industrial sector of Hungary is once again attaching itself to Germany as place of low cost outsourcing and of course the Ukrainians split over elections during the Orange Revolution. Is it possible to find any movement forward in the region? And how do we in the West view these future states after going from decades of planning to penetrate their airspace to penetrating their markets. I have come to a few conclusions about what could be done in the region and how we as the victors in the Cold War, or at least the ones left standing, are missing an opportunity.

Academia has many theories into what caused the collapse of the Soviet Empire:

Loss of legitimacy and popular support.
Inefficiency of a command economy
Unenthusiastic leadership and diminished belief in their mission.
Popular unrest.
Globalization, modern communication, and travel.
The reforms of Gorbachev.
Communism was a foreign ideology to the region
Nomenklatura went from shooting each other to bribing one another.
Market economy outpacing in the arms race.

Regardless of the theory the fall came fast and hard. The West was unprepared yet popular belief has a bold new world ahead of us with better times awaiting. if we learn anything from this it is that erosion of a system is due to unheeded warnings. Similar to the alarms sounded before the shake up we are currently faced with leadership unwilling to make hard choices for the future. Taking that which I learned in this independent study is we are faced with a similar situation. The Cold War is now an Hot War, from the largest atomic bomb to the smallest computer chip, the world is racing forward. The challenge of academia today is not only the identification of the erosive factors but involvement in the influencing our leadership of these currently ignored dangers. Capitalism did not bury Communism economically by design but the latter’s choice of direction base too firmly on ideology and not reality. Are we currently so entrenched in a open free market system that we also are ignoring some of its rotting realities?

The understanding the Ottoman Empire’s influence in the Balkans for the last 400 years and the complexity Russian Foreign Policy in the 20th century are crucial elements in my International Studies career. The Ottoman Empire is labeled the Sickman of Europe but never defined in detail as to why. When I look at the command structure, influences of Islamic law on foreign policy, and corruption that existed in its domination of the Balkans One can see how it did not evolve to meet changing world challenges. I was fascinating at the fairly decent treatment awarded the Balkan populace as opposed to annihilation. Yet the region was frozen in a vacuum and had not defrosted until Tito’s death. The corrupt Ottoman magnates i not only created a resentment as a legacy to their corrupt rule but by not allowing the necessary institutions to develop, the future of the Balkans in embracing the modern world is bleak.

When I previously looked at the countries of the Warsaw Pact I was under the impression they were a cohesive unit ready to spearhead westward into Europe . The exposure to the individual countries’ development and directions attempted under Soviet influence was extremely varied. The Soviets in the East failed to cultivate these differences to strengthen them as potential allies just as much as the West is doing now. The revolts and eventually changes in the Soviet world is so much more than the fall of Berlin to the fall of the Berlin Wall. Had the Soviet elite followed the Roman Empires style of controlling the conquered by separate treaties and negotiations with each country, they may have held their empire together longer. History shows however that these satellite nations closely watched Moscow’s treatment and amount of tolerance each was allowed with the others reacting according. The ruling Communist Party seemed intoxicated by Marxist ideology and all its decisions towards reforms in the satellite states were Stalinist in nature.

One of the most overlooked aspects of the Balkans troubles is the agriculture sector. So much attention is paid to the current ethnic and religious differences compounded by irredentism, that the basis of creating modern civilization, successful agriculture, is still not addressed. I hope to offer my in sights to key areas that are opportunities in improving this dilemma. Success or failure in the fields of a nation transfer to the political foundations of a society. Looking at the post-WWI American rural sector in the case of failure and upsetting a political structure to the reforms in China’s policies in rural markets propelling a nation towards economic fulfillment, land reform and the institutions to compliment it are of utmost importance. My reaction to agricultural reforms after the Great War were that though filled with good intent were destined to fail. Bureaucracies never seem to comprehend a peasant’s view of the world. Giving a man a financial loan, the right to vote, and fixing prices on inputs does nothing for someone illiterate that needs land and markets. Creating functional institutions that assist in educating a farmer with his needs should take precedence over a government agency created to oversee the distribution of funds.

The world is now engaged in competing in the only surviving economic system from the Cold War. Opinions are varied on what caused the Soviet to implode but little is said about what steps could have been corrected to “bury us”economically. We only need to look at the success of Red china to see a successful economic model for growth. The Chinese relaxed regulations on agricultural policies away from collectivization, priming the economy and while backing off on heavily centralized industrialization. The Soviet model was successful in centralized heavy industry built by the parasitic destruction of the agricultural but as in all rapid economic growth reached a plateau. Here is where the continuation of both collectivization and lack of consumer goods allowed the economy to deteriorate. If we include all the potential consumers of the Soviet Empire, add in some liberalization of agricultural combined with light industries, the collapse could have been stopped. I base this on two things that has happened since the collapse, peoples desire for the past benefits and security of Socialism (it provides much more for people than autocracy) and the underlining jealousies towards the West as modern communications penetrated eastward noting what they were lacking. Just a small growth in consumer goods would have had a major psychological impact on the oppressed masses of the East. The riots in Poland were over increases in food prices, in Hungary over restraints on the attempts at small economic reforms, and the Czechs desire for “communism with a human face”. The Soviet Army had liberated these areas from the grip of Nazi Germany and with the memory of pre-war dictatorships, any improvement would have been cherished. In today’s world we witness economic success in formations of regional zones that collaborate, European Union and NAFTA as prime examples. The opportunity missed in reforms under Khrushchev were the first holes to appear in the hull of the Soviet ship.

The future stability of Eastern Europe revolves around economic issues as the era of nation states aggressively taking territory seems to have ended. Involvement of outside major European powers has left a regional legacy of economic backwardness. As with in other underdeveloped countries the influence of economic aid is often wasted by corrupt leadership leaving a debt ridden nation begging for loan forgiveness. After all of the World Banks efforts and eventually bailouts one major lesson can be learned. Reform must take place for this economic assistance to blossom. Unfortunately an impoverished nation’s leadership will not impose the reforms necessary as the lead to sacrifices for his people. These changes often cause the government to loose power as the cycle of economic stagnation continues. Why is this important? If we look at Eastern Europe and the Balkans closely we can pinpoint the strengths of the region and offer solutions. Stability is achieved through the creation of a middle class and democratic institutions.

The mosaic of countries all offer a piece to the puzzle in solving the regions problems. Before examining each country I recommend the formation of regional unions to resolve issues. Just joining the European Union is not a cure all. I have heard economists state the changes necessary to meet entry standards are pressuring change. Once again European history is repeating itself as the West attempts to force Eastern Europe in its own image. On an individual basis, these eastern nations had failed in modernizes there institutions in the 20^th century. The Wilsonian blade that carved out democracies evolved into Nationalistic fiefdoms interested in expansion over development. In the 19^th Century the struggles of the regions people to form independent nations shifted in mild Fascism. Hungary’s Magyar elites, Poland’s Marshall Pilsudski, Bulgaria’s Stamboliski, and Romania’s King Carol II are just a few examples of the regions right- shift away from parliamentarian democracy. What we are witnessing now is the resurgence of this nationalistic tendencies in some parts of the region.

When I recommend the European Union as not being an answer for a remedy than what is? First a look at Poland which contrary to my previous statement, rightly entered the EU. The is an imbalance of power with the Franco-German coalition in the EU and Poland’s entry combined with its growing ties with Great Britain and the USA, will keep the EU off balance. The aging population, high unemployment combined with a generous social safety net is a growing problem. I view EU expansion in the east as their solution to resolving longterm economic problems that they do not currently have the political courage to change now. It will be a great disadvantage for Southeastern Europe to attach itself without the economic muscle of its own to politically compete in the EU. Poland as a ever present thorn in side of its eastern neighbor, Russia, in its last elections moved to the political right. With unavoidable internal reform necessary and a millennium of misunderstanding with Russia, the EU should in my opinion stay off the world stage and strengthen its region. Getting involved with external conflicts at this time be it in the Balkans or Middle East while it is a house divided would be disastrous. As a political union it needs more maturity to be a world leader. Dragging old world Catholic Poland into the EU could have been a large enough bite to chew on.

One would predict a nation like Hungary and Czech Republic to be preferred candidates for the EU but I would have choose otherwise. With less economic ties to Russia’s heavy industries and a history of collaboration with foreign nationals within its borders ,I would choose them to lead a regional organization in Southeastern Europe. Both have an educated population, experience at lighter industries (easily convertible to consumer goods), and most importantly, they understand how to keep their institutions functioning in the advent of foreign domination. Rather than allowing Southeastern Europe to become a destination for outsourcing by the West’s corporation, the region needs some self-determined involvement in its future. If economic based decisions are made from outside, development will be uneven and not coordinated towards long term growth. Examples could start in the areas of infrastructure and economic co-ordination. Recent problems along the Danube River have made headlines in the. Would a regional river authority in the nature of the Tennessee River Valley Authority be successful? The two prong attack of taming the river and creating electrical energy for economic growth seems a wonderful idea, but should not be funded conditionally by outside investment. The World bank with its economic requirements or the US with political allegiance and human rights demands are not the answer. An internally based solution giving these nations something at stake will bring peace and prosperity. Alternatives are Hungary becoming a EU industrial site for the production involving hazardous materials, Slovenia as a tourist destination (currently rated as the EU’s number one destination, Bulgaria as Europe’s poor gardener, and a Serbia sweltering in anger. Hungary and the Czech Republic have had numerous border shifts and would be politically sympathetic in co-ordinating a regional union.

Avoidance at looking to outside the region for economic ties and political alliance should be a goal of the region. The improving water, rail, and roads between the nations to allow increased trade and mobility of cultures within would make the region more stable by developing institutions necessary but a string region would attract foreign investment. The Balkans has been blessed with beautiful terrain but cursed with transportation obstacles. The cost of getting to the region to do business should be shared by nations desiring entry into this market. Desperate for foreign business, all too often governments gamble on port , bridge, or airport construction only to place the tax burden on its population. The leading economic powers have the necessary capital to invest in a region for longterm interests. Foreign powers have attempted to use alliance as pawns with the results being revolutions and world wars. An political alliance of Southeastern Europe’s nations built up from economic collaboration would hold together much better than a piece of paper from France or England. An alliance of Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania would be my recommendation for the region. I view the minor coalition on settled nomadic tribes and small ethnic minorities coalition as having the best chance of prosperity in the region. By our standards probably not successful but the process of modernization has failed by the influence and intrusion of the outside forces. In leaving out Serbia-Monte Negro and Macedonia I am not acknowledging failure at a solution rather an understanding at their ancient behavioral problems that are rectifiable.

Centuries of Ottoman domination and resulting legacy of Muslim’s influence in the Balkans seem to have left a recipe for continued violence in the former Yugoslavia. When ethnic violence erupted between Muslims, Croats, and Serbs, the Western European nations did not have the resolve to enter and put an end to the genocide. If they had economic interests their behavior may have been different. Setting up assembly and light manufacturing to outsource work is not an lasting economic commitment as such operations will always move to areas with lower costs. Where does a benefit arise in the Ottoman legacy in the Balkans? Looking at the recent resistance of Europeans towards the Turkey’s entry into their Christian club, there has to be an alternative. Alienating Turkey away from Western Christendom during heightened frictions between the Middle East and modern world is short-sighted. Having a successful SE European Union that has experienced a Christian-Islam mix as a buffer between the clashing continents may bridge the cultural communication gap rather than becoming a wall. The region has long been a cross roads for trade, reinstating its importance would in the long term seem essential.

In closing, my independent study course not only provided detailed knowledge but also increased my enthusiasm in my other courses. My current classes include 20^th Century Russian History, Comparative Economic Systems, and American History 1900-1945, combined with working knowledge of Eastern Europe, I am able to “link” all the courses together. I was unaware before this work of the amount of primary source documents covering the ancient nomadic tribes that settled in Europe, to 19^th century poems of Hungarian patriots, and the tell-tale telephone conversation between dictators and would-be-liberators of the Soviet Era. As a Liberal Arts student given the freedom to chart a course along my interests has been inspiring.

Trade interdependence and peace – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

      An end to discussion [political] and an agreed standard economic model [one-size
fits all] would seem to be a decree of economic intelligentsia about a decade and half ago
as “the” solution to world’s ailing economies. Cold War goals no longer placed free market
capitalism in a race for supremacy with communism and the ideological guidelines that
outpaced the socialist experiment had solutions based on economic models observing
ceteris paribus. Liberalism was no longer responding to the left’s call for equity as market
efficiency was the clear victor in modeling growth oriented economies. The stripped-down
solution to fix LDC (Lesser Developed Countries) problems are the product of agreement
on what economic model worked in the Western world. Any ideas outside this “consensus”
were left out because this pre-scaled structure would produce not only economic benefits
from growth but reduce a myriad of injustices as a side product. Equity would basically
fall like fruit from a growing tree of economic efficiency. Yes indeed reducing intervention
by the states promotes competition in markets around the globe but unfortunately the
results were laissez-unfaire.
The results of such a straightforward solution can be given the following analogy
for economic aid using as an example an often abused substance, alcohol. Here’s a
statement we can all get a consensus on, “Alcohol (aid) relieves pain”. You (LDC) are in
pain ( social, financial, political) and you go see the Doctor (IMF / World Bank). We will
all admit the well-trained medical physicians are assumed smarter about health so we rely
on them. Our choice of doctors is limited and the only one willing to treat you has an easy
solution for pain… alcohol. Since you need help and he’s there, you except. A little
ingestion of alcohol and we all agree we feel better. Remember when you made that
appointment, they asked you the reason and you said “pain”? Since the Doctor has one
solution, why should he diagnose your problem? Your there, you trust him, and it’s easy to
relieve the pain- but we all know alcohol affects everyone differently at different times and
in different amounts. And the first person to blame when the pain killer subsides but the
pain is still there? The person who prescribed the medicine to you? You get hooked- you
are going to beg for more? Some people should never touch the stuff? We all have friends
who are fun or mean drunks. I do not think I need to continue to show the analogy, the
answer is simple, the Washington Consensus has gone on too long and the problems that
have surfaced from it will require a not only rethinking but double the commitment. The
patient suffering needs to be part of the solution and supplier of the medicine needs to be
more educated on its effects.
All the fundamental economic rules are there in the WC (Washington Consensus)
but continued crisis around the world seemed similar to substituting your stock broker for a
bailbondsman. Having a working model to apply is one thing, keeping committed to
adjusting it is another. Is growth the simple solution? Obviously not and this liberal idea of
open markets comes from a central authoritarian economic committee who’s technique
much resembles other failed economic systems. I will try and examine the consensus
commandments and hopefully we can sober them up enough so they can walk home on
their own. Often an author’s point of view is critical in examining their ideas but since this
is a consensus, I felt a few words about the environment of where he is published would be
relevant to understanding the POV of WC supporters. Williamson’s articles are typically
published by Institute for International Economics located in Washington DC. From their
website one can look at their board of directors, or should I say Economic All-Stars. Rather
than mention the list, though I was stunned by the experience gathered in one place, I
tallied the board’s thirty-five members backgrounds pie-charted it accordingly.
( I wish I had the list from 20 years ago)
The backgrounds seem to weigh in the side of liberalism. The nurturing side did show
one member of from the Arts and 4 female members. What seemed to be missing was any
representation from the countries that missed reaping the benefits from years of the WC
implementation- South America, Africa, and former Soviet Republics. The US dominated
board contained only four “foreigners”, China, Singapore, Poland, and Mexico (countries
who are not doing so badly in restructruing). The institute could also be called the Institute
for International Paternal Economics or the Think [like us] Tank of Economic Wizards!
Socially conscience Western Europeans need not apply.
1. Fiscal Discipline
Large fiscal deficits add to inflation and capitol flight. State control is a foundation of
Realism and here it can be applied. This is most righteous choice for number one on an
economic consensus list. The necessary efficient government institutions are not in place in
LDC (have they ever been?) leading to fiscal trouble and more borrowing. The cycle feeds
itself draining resources that could be used for social equity. The rich hide their resources
outside the country while the working classes suffer paying off economic burdens from
government deficits. A major radical criticism I came across was for LDC just to default on
all their loans and turn their economic focus towards socially just and ecologically
sustainable development. Seizing the riches of corrupt leaders, taxing the land of rich
property owners, and direct foreign aid not loans were also tossed in as solutions. These
revolutionary popular fronts have historically changed personnel and not the actually
functioning behavior of governmental institutions. None of these ideas offer a workable
solution.
A viable yet firmer solution to promote fiscal discipline may be to first look at the
winners and losers in that arena. There are two categories that standout in developing
countries, those who habitually default on loans and those who go through the economic
pain of restructuring to pay off their debts. I would simply not assist the abusers of the
system and would put them in contact with those countries who have restructured and who
are getting loans. It would transfer the pressure away from the loaning institutions and as
their economic systems of LDC came under pressure, internal domestic forces may be
more effective. This may be a “cold turkey” method but initial “moral” assistance would be
obtained from another country that has restructured. A fraternal-based system to help build
institutions capable of enforcing rule-based fiscal discipline. If some LDC do not want to
play and fall behind that’s fine. Referring back to the alcohol analogy, at an AAA meeting
you find a room full of people who have successfully controlled the disease to offer you
support and guidance.
2. Redirection of Public Expenditures
There are definitely class differences in LDC therefore I will classify this theory under
Marxist theory. The inequity solutions seemed to be Realist based with state control
necessary instead of revolution. The long history of LDCs, class struggle without a spark,
is my basis for calling this overall a Marxist idea. Socialism was a step the Soviets used
towards their goal of Communism. Will improving social conditions by focusing on them
along with economic considerations be a better alternative? The first decade of the
Washington Consensus implementation should economic grow but not else changed. There
are plenty of socially institutions in place functioning in place. A small amount of capitol
invested there would show a higher return on an investment than in just in an industrial
sector. Though you could not measure in a hard currency, a fertile soil is necessary for
growth to take root. The trickle down theory just is not going to accelerate growth. Though
an emphasis on improving education, health, and other social conditions are the
responsibility of the state, all the money in the world will not help if structures of these
institutions are not efficient. I recommend the use of IGOs in leadership in these activities.
The seemingly behemoth United Nation’s bureaucracy will not suffice. Rather I would use
RGOs (Regional Governmental Organizations) to work hand in hand with regional
development programs and treaties. Under the NAFTA banner, the possibility of improving
healthcare amongst its member nations would be more efficient and have a stronger impact
on the psychological morale. A regional hegemon could anchor, coordinate, and deliver
social programs with greater efficiency that world organizations.
3. Tax Reform
Liberal in nature, the emphasis on efficient use of and equal sharing of the tax burden
would be a very fundamental principle. This factor weights the pendulum of policy
reversal between parties more than anything else. Fairness would not be my reason for tax
reform. A wise choice would be to have a tax base that is like a good investment portfolio
makes more sense than dictating areas of taxations. An economy could endure more with
government stability based on this principal. This may relieve some of the sting in business
cycles. The balanced use of tax revenues being just as crucial, too much in invested in
social policies while ignoring infrastructure necessary for economic growth is a potential
problem. My reading on this topics show that an evenly structure tax base is not the trend
of the based decades. Labor is carrying the tax burden more so than capitol. This is
debatable on why- social democracy tax their labor more yet return more in social
programs. Or is the trend shifting to labor as not to scare off new capitol? I am at the point
of wondering if it’s not a conspiracy amongst democratic open market societies that have
transformed into puppets controlled by MNCs. A wild alternative could be a very small
global tax on capitol that would be used to relieve economies damaged by capitol flight
due to speculation (as opposed to war, natural disaster, bad government policies). If a LDC
is restructuring and has it’s ducks in a row, it would not be penalized for its efforts if
investors’ tastes switched to chicken over night. For now, I better keep this idea to myself.
4. Interest Rate Liberalization
A Realist POV for self-determination, a very useful government tool in regards to inflation
and foreign capitol investment. It is mentioned that it can also be misused to distort
economic distribution. Not sure if I understand that completely but my criticism is that
states should have some coordination on interests through an IGO. I fully believe that sates
should do this for competitiveness and domestic market health but be subject to limits.
Suggestions to this, more emphasis should be put on personal savings instead of corporate
investing as to give people a sense of involvement in domestic economics.
5. A competitive exchange rate
Liberal policy, a gold based system needed to give way to paper-gold, and using that
thought, we need to prepare for an electronic based system. Off of that tangent, having
currencies loosely tied together builds a sense of interdependency and makes market
transaction s smoother between trading economies. I say loosely tied as states still need not
to feel threatened and may behave irrational with unforeseeable consequences. I am
referring to Britain’s Pound Sterling detached from the Euro when different policy issues
pulled them apart. Here is where I think there is too much IGO control in propping up or
letting currencies fall. I think states should work once again in RGOs to keep currencies
competitive. Stronger regions would possible take the brunts of economic shots and
recover faster if more of the system were organized.
6. Trade Liberalization
Need I say Liberalist theory, danger has been when markets open too quickly with all
the promised benefits not reaching the poor through income distribution. Major opponent
is special domestic interest groups rhetoric. State is needed to guide this liberalistic
transition as it is not a guarantee for wealth and development. My course of action would
be to build models using both successful and decimated economies when pressuring a state
to liberalize trade. Allowing them to open markets at their own pace and within the limits
they can comprehend the changes would be best for long term growth. I would promote
short term use of import tariffs using this time to prepare domestics industry but then allow
the market to take its course.
7. Liberalization of inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI)
This healthy form of liberal economic growth (and the most dangerous) though not
only capitol but skills importation, is a key factor in closing the gap between rich and poor
states. The drunkenness of massive capitol inflow, if based initial on speculation, can have
devastating effects if it quickly flees a countries of other speculative. How and what type
of control should be placed on this by states? It may be tough to say but if anything will
make news headlines, its capitol flight out of a nation. Once the Red China’s model of
inflow of direct investment’s bubble finally has its first burst, an analysis of that would
hold some policies than I might agree with. Surely governments can not pick winners all
the time when directing foreign investment but the Chinese model had an interesting twist.
They were using export tariffs to stiffen competition domestically and intentionally close
place that could not perform. Overall the states should use conditions to control FDI but
shy away from demands. An IGO to control this may be cumbersome and short-term
effective with long-term damage. I would suggest a small but strong IGO set up help
countries suffering from FDI flight. Not a financial safety net but to analyze and advise the
effected country for restructuring. Bailing out a country’s financial troubles due to its being
a victim of recent trend as an emerging market is a sickness that has to stop. Would pre-
qualifying a country for FDI similar to getting a car loan be a novel solution? If they are
declined they are off to credit school through an IGA.
8. Privatization
Liberal life support- privatization has been the spark in motivation since day one
Everyone knows that states are needed to protect those rights. Let’s switch our focus away
from countries who are privatized to ones were economies are floundering, corruption in
government is rapid, and privatization has been introduced in the last century. Africa and
Russia come to mind, both with communal type societies, then suddenly wrung through
revolutions. In these cases privatization should not occur in industries necessary to
maintain a sense of communal spirit. Be it the petroleum or housing industry in the
Russian Federation, or a communal cattle ranch or farming village structure in Kenya. In
some cases it is too disruptive to institutions of a society. There are expectations in a
society about there being a certain level of security, having some industries non-privatized
may support that need. Powerful global bankers would call me nuts but there are many
different ways to be a human. What is viewed as an institution on the domestic level can be
called a nuisance or barrier to an outside investor, I say that’s fine. On the other hand
destroying privatizations in societies where it his successful is an extremely regressive and
action.
9. Deregulation
Liberalism as government intervention will hinder economic growth. Unfortunately
whoever said the market is guided by an invisible hand did not mention the other hand was
picking your pocket. Government involvement in business does promote a degree of
corruption. Let’s put the amount of one year’s worth of US Government corruption on a
scale and the fallout from Enron on the other. I’ll take the lesser of two evils as government
corruption is institutionalized enough to be overseen. If a dozen more Enron-esque
scandals appear suddenly, what will the fallout from that be? I would prefer a guard awake
with one eye open than one asleep. Economic watchdogs are necessary as well as social
and environmental safeguards but with a long term outlook as a partnership with business.
Preferably I would like white-collar crime to carry heavy penalties than blue-collar
violations. My discussion is focusing on the domestic policy of the US and this may not be
enforceable throughout the world. However our ability to often lead the world may help
create a precedence for increased state regulation in those areas.
10. Secure property Rights
This is a hybrid between Liberal thinking and Realist application. Intellectual property
is often abused be disadvantaged peoples causing much political dissatisfaction. Blame is
often placed on the states were this occurs and the accusers are often quite hypocritical on
the accusations. You may be allowed to buy a pirated CD in Beijing for example but I can
tell you after 5 weeks in China no one tried to sell me crack or make one threaten gesture
towards me. Typically patents are horded and technologies used for profits for a certain
period of time. My suggestion is for tougher enforcement of property rights and an
extension of protection lengths. A request for protection length would require a fund that
would obtain a small percentage of additional profits made from the extension be used for
social development.I am also unaware of any benefit offered to corporations or individuals for relinquishing
those property rights for public good.
Overall there needs to be a new understanding and reimplementation of the
Washington Consensus. Primarily this top to bottom way of thinking and controlling is
failing in the short term. If International Political Economies can be simple described as a
push and pull between the state and the market, then we should factor the state into the
market. The fundamental rules of the Washington Consensus do make sense and can
influence short term economic development. The fundamental institutions however that are
implementing these recommendations are failing and no quick solution is in sight. We may
be misinterpreting the economic credentials of the top with their ability to effect the
credibility at the bottom. Politics needs to be put back in Economics and the emphasis
towards regional issues with regional solutions.
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Marxism and U.S. Economics – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

TOPIC: What is the future of Marxism and economics in the United States?

HYPOTHESIS: By analyzing the US economy through Marxism, the tenets of which will be valuable analytical tools, we can describe how the outside pressures of Globalization are eroding the liberal capitalist system.

The theories and predictions of Karl Marx and Frederic Engels were created during the infancy of capitalism. They have historically aligned with the concept of socialism and indeed were active in promoting it but their collective writings were based on the science of economics to analyze history instead of philosophy. To be able to use their viewpoints one must first list and identify them. Their collaborative manuscripts fill almost fifty volumes and the major tenets include materialism, dialectics, industrializations, political economy, cult of science, evolution of man, revolution, and political economy. In essence mankind’s progress is based on what it produces and therefore the struggle that erupts in this evolution is history. Economics in their viewpoint is the key to explaining the history of mankind and with the conflicts developing today in the US economy, the ideas of Marxism may be very relevant analytical tools. If profits are the goal in a world based on materialism then globalization is the road of travel in its pursuit. That road has many obstacles and is currently pressuring the US economy and affecting everything from trade and budget deficits, currency value, politics, social institutions, wealth distribution, domestic and foreign policy, and the dispute over ethical solutions just to name a few.

Profits under the Marxist viewpoint developed from the history of production starting from tribal, to feudal, then an industrialized society. The added value that is created by the efficiency of industrialization is unfairly accumulated by the newly formed bourgeoisie class and with the passage of time would cause all the wealth to be stripped away from the working class. In the 19^th century this was true but what has happened is a new struggle has formed. History was to be a showdown between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat but that dialectic struggle did not materialize. Capitalist profits have in the US economy been accumulated by multi-national corporations and banks and with this acquisition of ownership have taken control away from industry. Industries that previously owned the means of production in the US are without the enormous amounts of capital to reinvest which is now theoretically owned on paper by multi-national corporations and banks. As a nation the US heavy industrial base has eroded and gone overseas to cheaper labor markets and it was the pursuit of profits by the new owners (multi-national corporations and banks) that caused this shift in investment. Industry is no longer a dominant part of the Marxist equation and the effect of wealth accumulation by US multi-national corporations and banks investing overseas keeps profits returning to the US economy. The new US service economy needed to control a globalized capitalist system has been very successful in increasing the standards of living of Americans by both the creation of jobs and the lowering of costs for consumer goods by products produced in cheap labor markets. If industry had remained in control of profits and controlled globalized investments the result would have been Marxian in nature. With full control of profits US heavy industries would first cooperate to monopolize the economic system with the result being able to control wages and prices. Without competition in the system there would be no benefit to consumers. The investment strategy of industry is to monopolize where as multi-national corporations and banks diversify and give credit to areas of an economy that will return profits. A major difference is that industry needs a physical means of production to create profits while multi-national corporations and banks due it on paper which is more effective in accumulating wealth at a higher rate. So the Marxian idea of a struggle between a small bourgeoisie industrial class and impoverished working class is not a correct when analyzing the current US economy rather the new synthesis that formed was because of the battle between multi-national corporations and banks against industry as owners of profits. The harm caused to the US economy by the loss of manufacturing jobs is small in comparison to the benefits of profits that return from overseas investment, lower priced consumer goods, and the creation of new jobs needed to support this system.

Marxian exploitation to impoverish the working class did not define the growth of the US economy. The successful middle class that developed in the United States has been the factor that upsets Marxist predictions. A unique feature to the sustain success in the US economy has been the ability of this middle class to invest as compared to building savings. Most nations have systems that promote savings as a means for building capital for investment and this would be a less risky and promote slower growth due to government safeguards and regulations. The American system of promoting investment has three beneficial effects for multi-national corporations and banks. Funds are raised quicker, control of where the money is invested is in their hands, and risk is pasted on to the investors. This type economic growth is therefore less constrained, riskier yet more adaptable. Marxist theory could only explain economic growth by industries use of imperialist expansion, horizontal and vertical integration to create monopolies, and exploitation of labor. The present day US economic system has developed in unforeseen ways outside the boundaries of Marxist doctrine.

Domestic US politics on the issue of overseas job loss has been controversial and the two opposing factions of industrial capitalists and labor in certain industries have joined forces to promote the fear of globalization. A Marxian analysis would not have these opponents cooperating and in the liberal economic spirit, their inability to compete in the global market means that such industries as well as the associated jobs need to be phased out. This is further evidence to the success of multi-national corporations and banks controlling capitol to further strengthen the US economy by trimming the inefficient. Also the decrease in the standards of living of a million workers is not justification for halting increasing the economic advancement of a billion foreign workers. Where has the Marxist concept of worker solidarity gone? Overseas investment builds gains in both nations not disparity between economic classes. An increase in wealth overseas will only increase demand for technological products and innovations of our new service economy which is a further benefit of multi-national corporations and banks controlling investment. Had US industries been dominate in making investment decisions, overseas markets would still be impoverished and unable to afford American products. This dominance by the multi-national corporations and banking is seeking profits when combined with US technology and American productivity can produce higher levels of profits than the traditional slow expansion of the manufacturing industry.

The new economy that has risen is based on white-collar as blue-collar jobs have been exported. A current issue is that now some white-collar jobs are being exported and alarm bells are once again going off. Is this the start of the decline for the US economy as the middle-class is now being exploited? With no jobs in either blue or white collar category will the Capitalist be able to drive down wages based on a world-wide labor pool? Opponents to off-shoring of white-collar jobs say it will assuredly drive down wages but the US economic strength is based on competition and productivity therefore protectionism in this area will slow growth. The high wages earned in previous decades in certain fields like the IT Industry were more due to a scarcity of labor rather than productivity. The departure of white-collar jobs is most likely due to increased demand as compared to am attempt to lower wages and I would view this as a sign of a growing economy not a form of class exploitation. Capitalist imperialism is supposed to grow into markets where it can conduct the exploitation of labor, here it is faced with a scarcity of a necessary commodity. Another viewpoint is that an American form of employment is spreading outward in a global fashion. How quickly we forget when Japanese industrial techniques, so foreign to American workers, were implemented in our factories to keep us competitive.

The American consumer is currently faced with the burden of fueling the world economy and carrying the debt. During the 19^th Century when Marx and Engels developed their theories products were consumed once money was exchanged. The slow speed of transactions and the direction of money flowing into the hands of industry was the status quo for the steady increase in their wealth. Yet today we have a system where consumption of goods takes place even before the products are paid for. This accelerates the business cycle to exponential proportions further increasing the size production hence reducing costs. So the rapid consumption fueled by consumer credit continually benefits society as a whole through increased economic growth. In the old Marxian viewpoint the exchange benefited the class that owned the means of production who were then the bourgeoisie. Today the suppliers of consumer credit are the banks and with minimal investment in physical material, accumulate profits on paper. Since this increases the quality of life rather than impoverish the American worker, Marxist principles once again do not apply here in there prophecy of growing destitute class drifting towards an eventual revolution. Industries are created by consumer demand and banks issuing credit to them in the end and reap the majority of profits. Industries answering to consumer demand are subject to competition which produces lower consumer prices and lower profits.

Are overseas economies that are pressuring the US economy following the same route? In the European Union the emphasis on bank / industry cooperation is slightly in favor of social issues and the results are average growth and high levels of unemployment. The higher value on the Eurodollar can only be explained through speculation as no system of control is in place. Japan whose banks invest in close coordination with industry in a closed economy remains stagnant. China whose economic boom is creating massive industrial investment in physical means of production is also inducing a massive disparity of wealth between the bourgeoisie and proletariat classes oddly following in the footsteps of Marxist theory. The US, European, and Japanese economies all fall outside of parameters of class struggle headed for revolution. The controllers of wealth accumulation and the further investment of these profits in China are faced with more difficulties than the US banks as they need to control economic activity on the domestic front yet are dependant on overseas markets to sustain this growth. The overall major factor here is that American multi-national corporations are diversified and have the ability to move capital around to maximize profits not heavily subjected to economic downturns. The smaller scale one nation economies are entrenched in areas where they have a comparative advantage and more affected by economic cycles. Viewing the various ways liberal capitalism is applied through out the world was something once again not envisioned by Marx and Engels. Their theories did not account for “value” and in that they had one definition for a Capitalist. With globalization we see different versions of capitalists coming into conflict where Marxism predicted deceptive social cooperation amongst them.

The US Government’s pro-business attitude is also a major factor in the health of the US economy and how would a Marxist view this. They might conclude that governments are influenced by the wealthy classes and by running deficits the tax burden is kept off the backs of capitalist while they continue exploiting the system for profits. So is an easy Marxist explanation this corrupt social behavior towards government officials just a ploy for their own benefit? In this case I would say that it is not though the owners of wealth due have some influence on government policies. Because the dialectic material struggle between industry and workers did not happen in the US but instead became a conflict between banks and industrialists, the US government has a tax code and policies that are antiquated and ineffective in both controlling and taxing the new service economy of the United States. Marxists would have minimal government control as liberal capitalism developed but in US history just the opposite took place. Labor during the industrial revolution was restricted by the US government’s judicial system from striking or organizing because it infringed on the rights of industry. When too much power was monopolized in the hands industry the law ruled against them. Afterwards the formation of large banks took control from industry in directing the economy. Then with the two world wars decimating the global economy American multi-national corporations developed and spread throughout the world. In doing so placed themselves outside jurisdiction of US laws and no longer having the need to influence governmental policy through deceptive and corrupt socializing. The US economy evolved along the lines of a liberal economy from the interpretations of laws more so than corrupt officials. The major economies around the world which compete with the US economy in this era of globalization are mandated by either parliamentary systems or small ruling elite. This gives yet another example of Marxist principle being out of alignment with modern economic conditions.

Continuing on the theme of the US government, the role as the only world super power resembles that of 19the century Great Britain during the era of Marx and Engels. With a liberal economic system, internationally accepted hard currency, a leader in the technology of the times, and a military force to enforce its will, one would expect these are all the ingredients necessary Capitalist Imperialism. One finds the US Governmenmt’s attitude dependent on human rights in trade negotiations where Marxists thinking could never imagine this. An Imperial power of the 19^th century accumulated wealth in the stockpiling of gold reserves yet the US remains strong and its government is financed on paper by massive debt. In areas of technological advance spillover around the globe has produced beneficial results and often technological advances in the military are transferred to consumer goods improving lives. A Marxists would insist that a Capitalist State would horde these resources for market dominance yet the opposite has taken place. US Military bases around the world are protecting competitive trading partners and boosting the local economies where there are located. Our current war and subsequent occupation of Iraq was based on non-compliance with a United Nations Security Council resolution not a trade dispute, demand for resources, or funding by Capitalist to open foreign markets. We see a balance between Western philosophy and liberal economic ideology determining US foreign policy not the fading of national boundaries and the growth of a united global working class.

Marxists predict that the global spread of capitalism eventual leads to the formation of two opposing classes. In the last 50 years has this changed the American social structure? Often a person’s perception of globalization is how it is affecting them. In examining the following chart we can theorize a few trends.¹

QUESTION TEXT:

“Most people say they belong either to the middle class or the working class. Do you ever think of yourself as belonging in one of these classes?”
(IF YES:) “Which one?” /
(IF NO:) “Well, if you had to make a choice, would you call yourself middle class or working class?”
(IF MIDDLE CLASS/WORKING CLASS:) “Would you say that you are about average middle/working class or that you are in the upper part of the middle/working class?”

Respondent’s Social Class, Self-Identification 1956-2000

(numbers represent percentages of total surveyed)

	’56	’66	’76	’80	’82	’84	’88	’90	’92	’94	’00
Average Working	52	47	43	41	42	42	42	45	42	42	39
Upper Working	9	10	9	10	10	9	9	8	8	8	8
Average Middle	30	30	34	37	36	38	35	36	36	37	38
Upper Middle	7	8	11	10	9	10	11	9	10	12	13

The Average Middle Class view shows 26% increase while the Average Working Class individual self-perception dropped around 20%. Can Marxist theory account for the spread of capitalism and jobs leaving the US economy heading overseas increasing people’s perception of their lives? The decline in blue-collar jobs is evident in this chart and also the new service economy has created wealth in shifting upwards of individuals in a higher class. How about the doubling of the Upper Middle class? Globalization appears not to have dire consequences after all and the great split in society has not taken place. Is how a person considers his socio-economic status a better indicator than monthly consumer confidence reports? Yes, I believe it is based more on ones overall condition as compared to factors such as current events in the American media having sway over ones emotional state. My opinion is that once again the Marxist angle on globalization is outdated. Some of the original marks of early capitalist imperialism spread were not only economic but in diseases. If the world is becoming smaller and under the Marxist microscope the US population suffering what explains the 60% drop in both syphilis and gonorrhea in this country since 1984.² Two things could factor into the reduction, education and health, both signs of prosperity and not class division. The consumption of goods is what drives capitalism making the consumer a high priority in the system rather than a tool for exploitation. Since the end of World War II, the amount of consumer credit has increased by a factor of over 370.³ Continuing down this path one can restate the call for workers of the world to unite to consumers of the world go into debt as it is an easier path to prosperity than revolution. All this emphasis on materialism as an economic factor is also understood by Marxists to be the scientific basis for mankind’s history with philosophies becoming irrelevant in the future. As global contact increases we see additional friction between political, social, and economic systems based on different philosophies. The philosophies developed during the European Enlightenment are still influential today in the world’s largest economy.

The great awakening of the working class as a transnational movement failed to develop in the United States. We have seen rather the development of transnational institutions based on environmental, equal rights, and trade issues which confront the problems of globalization. Ask the average American to define Green Peace then the International Workers Party and compare awareness. An aspect of globalization on the US economy has been increased sensitivity not solidarity. “Free Willie!” is a quote that is known amongst every American worker but Leon Trotsky words, “Life is beautiful. Let future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full.”, though poetic could not find its way it the minds of America. The complexity and diversity are the United States’ greatest strengths and are employed to economic benefits. The different values in individual strengths and morals are not accounted for in Marxist thinking as the view society in black and white with two opposing sides formed by mutual economic interests. There seems rarely any occasion that Marxist analysis of the United States economic system has a whole can be clearly explained.

When Marxist ideology is layered over the present day US economy we find that the pattern is not suited for the material. In 19^th century world it may have been different but with the accumulation of capital out of the hands of industry and liberal domestic economy open investment and advancement as well, Marx and Engels only use are for lesser developed countries to shake their fists with. The game has changed but no the players. In this switching of arenas the only player disadvantaged would be the US Government whom is still restricted under rules and operating in the last century. The Marxist ideology of a dialectic materialism that placed capitalist and workers in a face off did not evolve. The new thesis versus anti0thesis is the multi-national corporations against the US Government. When we look at the German and Japanese economies which involve close synchronization between government, industry, and financial institutions we may wonder is this the route the US Government will follow. Or is it possible that so much of the government’s function and responsibilities are sub-contracted and handed over to multi-national corporations that government as the state ceases to exist. It is more likely that the struggle between a state and multi-national corporation will define the future with labor on the sidelines in the course of history. Looking at the simplicity of Marxist ideology I conclude it is not a relevant theory to analyze the complexity of the US economy.

Notes: Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

¹The National Election Studies NES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior. This question is variable VCF0148A in the NES Cumulative Data File dataset. Consult the Cumulative Data File codebook for complete question text and annotation.

²Department of Health and Human Services enters for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology Program Office ivision of Public Health Surveillance and Informatics.

³Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Bibliography: Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Franklin, John Hope. George Washington Williams: A Biography. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985.

Carver, Terrell. Engels. New York : Hill and Wang, 1981.

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Hilferding, Rudolph Finance capital : a study of the latest phase of capitalist development. London : Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981.

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Marxists.org Internet Archives http://www.marxists.org (12 April 2005)

Kant, Mitrany, and the Marxists – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

There are similarities between Kant and Mitrany on one side and the Marxists on the other.
Discuss the similarities in terms of :
Limitation of the “current” governments.

The similar limitations derive from the fact that the current governments are not capable
solving current socioeconomic problems facing humanity and favor a Realist worldview.
Additionally, their basic interests in international relations are not based on the overall desires of
their citizenry. With sovereign states as the main actors, the global environment is geared towards
conflict thus placing the survival of the state as priority number one. Kant criticizes the lack of
constitutionally based republics wherein despotic governments exist in “an unceasing threat of
war.” Mitrany places economic competition as the number one cause of war. Finally, the Marxian
view establishes the accumulation of capital and the competition for limited resources as the
eventual spark for conflict. In all three cases, the reliance on military power and control of
territories over cooperation to obtain national interests, are a defining issues that focus the
national interests. War is an easy avenue to obtain goals when the conditions for a monopoly on
power and a narrow band of selfinterests is reflected in current governments in the view of each
respected author. The imposing of each states Realist view of international relationships in which
all states have the same goal in a zero sum game, is a major longterm impendement.
Not reflecting the true desires of their population for peace and security, as the masses are
the ones who face death in war, is one half of the coin. When analyzing the capabilities of
meeting these needs in the international relations arena, all authors agree states are lacking. With
no formal power above the states to control behavior, this is in reality, is a common limiting
characteristic. No venues exists to resolve issues and advance the needs of humanity over the self
interests of current governments.
Kant describes governments agreeing to peace under conditions of “tacit reservations”
while still maintaining standing armies. The implementation deceptive practices, spies and
assassins, using debt as leverage, and interfering with another state’s internal affairs through a
variety of methods, undermine cooperation. Unless a federation of free republican states is
established removing the distrust that exists, states will be limited to war to resolve differences.
He also equates the current international system to the natural lawless state of man. Though man
gave up this lawless condition to form sovereign states, there is no requirement for states to do the
same. Being limitless in decision making is in fact a limit on options as current governments base
decisions on their respective standing international system.
Mitrany also sees the limits on current governments from the association of protecting
national selfinterest with military power. In his viewpoint it is the government’s inability to
function outside its constitution on the international level as main impediment to peace. The
restrictions on constitutionally based republics does not allow them to adapt and efficiently
correct issues outside their jurisdiction. Even though this is counter to Kant’s concept that these
free republics are needed as a prerequisite, Mitrany states that the very nature of a sovereign state
is limited in international action by internal characteristics. While a constitution places a limits

on despotic rule domestically, without universal application it is ineffective.
Marxist ideology also defines the limits of current governments based on a narrow choice
of goals and its predetermined methods of obtaining them. Placing survival of the ruling class
based on accumulating and controlling economic factors, this long evolution of the concentration
of wealth and power intensifies competition. The overwhelming influence of capitalism on
current governments directs all of them to a single battleground with the domination of the
world’s limited resource as the only victor’s prize. This tunnel vision in international relations
limits governments actions as they are only geared towards serving an elite class. Choosing to
invest in only profit oriented ventures and military power to obtain and protect resources is in
Marxian terms a naturally limits its vision.
In summary, the current governments are not equipped by design to function in
cooperative international framework. Knowing only how to define and defend its interests using
its own viewpoint, gives them a natural propensity towards conflict. The changing and uneven
distribution of of real power and each sovereign state’s foreign policy based on selfinterests
points to mutual eventual destruction (MED). The predictions of Kant’s “vast burial ground of
the human race”, Mitrany’s limits on constitutional based governments abilities to act on issues
outside their borders, and Marxist eventual working class revolt, all point to the selfdefeating
nature of current governments. Equating survival on selfperceived terms and assuming the other
states have equivalent national interests is a common limitation of all three theories.
The interest of the majority of the population versus “current”governments.
Kant, Mitrany, and Marx views of the majority of the population all coincide. Peace and
security being the main interest but the underlining definitions have variants. All three authors
believe an eventual uniting of humanity in obtaining these goals. These long term interests will
be the dissolving of sovereign states and the concept of borders separating people (and their
interests).
Kant looks at the formation of republics and how they meet the needs of citizens as the
best form of government. Not only are the interests, specifically, republican governance, of the
majority universal, but such a system will eventually spread to all governments. Kant states that
the underlining principle of forming the majority interest is this . Mitrany views the interests of
the majority as resolving socioeconomic problems regardless of border issues. Additionally,
these interests relate to the governments as they should assume responsibility for meeting these
needs. Commonalty of interests in the majority extend beyond current frontiers.

Finally, Marx defines the interests of the people in egalitarian terms and the distribution
of wealth along these lines eliminating competition will obtain peace. He takes Idealist’s theories
on how man should govern and applies them to the daily politics of economics. Additionally, it is
not only the eliminations of borders that is in the majorities interests but also extinction of the
need for any form of government. Kant and Mitrany see men desire to live by higher ideals
mixing into a common interest but in Marx places men’s needs under one universal ideal.
Interests of the the current governments align with Realist theories of international
relations. Kant describes despotic governments, not only continually existing in a state of
perpetual war, but never relinquishing interests in influencing and conquering other states. With
sovereignty as a basis for power, any other sovereign state is a threat. Therefore the current
governments’ interests are natural in conflict with each other in the quest for security via power,
be it militarily, economically, or subversively. Mitrany sees each states interests in terms of
inequality, those benefiting from the current system behaving in ways to maintain it and those
underprivileged states competing against them. The rebuilding of old arrangements is used as a
yardstick for defining interests, basically maintaining the frontiers. Commonalty of interest
between states is based on maintaining power distribution. Marxian dialog does not state a
difference in the ultimate goal of both parties, control over the means of production, but rather
interests of the majority as a organic group over many individuals’ choices as the common good.

Effects of the true majority on the process of IR, in the long term/run and
International relations similarly will evolve to reflect the majority interests as define
above. Kantian views sees human nature leaning towards good governance in a small number of
states. As this process spreads universally, the commonality of interests of peace and security
will create a federation of states. As other states examine the benefits to such a form of
governance, they will also desire to replicate it. Eventually with one common form of
government, the federation will evolve into a world government with universal application
because all interests will be the same.

Socioeconomic issues being at the forefront of majority interests, in Mitrany’s theory,
will increase the demand for the forming of functional institutions whose authority is not based
on sovereignty. The effectiveness of such organizations and membership based on needs,
abilities, and responsibilities will supersede the effectiveness of the current international system.
The major longterm effect will be the weakening of states. Never having the ability to quickly
meet the interests of the majority, nor having the ability due to constitutional restraints, will erode
the leadership role of states. The true majority will begin to evolve into a more than just a
federation of peaceful republics but a unigovernmental world system. A major factor will be the
erosion of frontiers that separate group with common socioeconomic issues in their attempts to
resolve these issues.

Under Marx’s theory, the interests of the major majority, the worldwide working classes,
will reach a boiling point due to economic inequality. The effects which gather steam over a long
period will unite the working world to revolt. However, until that time is reached, the
accumulation of wealth and power will be spread out over a long period with the majority having
little or no ability to oppose it. Once this final stage is reached, the oppressed working classes
will seize power and apply an equitable system without the use of governments.
Possibility of transforming the international system in the long term/run.

The shifting of a Realist to Idealist international system is the common thread between
Kant, Mitrany, and Marx. All three contend the weaknesses of the current governments due to
their basis on Realist principals of power politics, limited economic resources, and survival of the
state above all other interests in a chaotic world, will lead to their decline. But it is not a two step
process, the where one ends and the other begins. Rather an evolution of international relations
into a stateless system. When one considers the time line of this process it is not measures on a
scale of units. Instead it is an eventual process which humanity will arrive at.

Kant espouses rationality as the driving force. The choice between MED or accepting
republican government on a universal level, since it men had the the ability to form it on a state
level, placed an idealist vision as the obvious selection. Choosing between extinction or Kant’s
vision of what the world should be as an alternative if one believes man behaves rationally.
Mitrany envisions functionalism as the hope for mankind in a world overwhelmed with socio
economic problems. His certainty is based on the failures of the current system in resolving the
post World War I period and how functional organization were naturally developing during World
War II. Although with a similar long term end with the interests of the majority as a final
destination. Marx leaned more towards the inevitability of capitalism rise and demise as giving
way to a change in the international relations system. The Leninist approach envisioned a catalyst
with a dictatorship of the proletariat guiding the masses towards true communism. Additionally,
the wars Marx predicted between the capitalist states would shuffle the process along in favor of
the eventual takeover by the a majority working class. Marx made his claims on the study of
economic history and the natural evolution of competition being eliminated until a monopolistic
state was reached.

One could rate the systems rate of change based from the authors’ writings in this order:
Mitrany, Kant, and Marx. Mitrany being the fastest step towards a future based on majority
influence due t factors such as modern inventions of communication and warfare, many modern
democracies, eminent dissolution of the colonial system, and the 20th century’s slaughter among
states. Kant’s era and system of governments was developed over a longer time period and though
rational cooperation seemed eventual, institutions were still entrenched on a wide scale to slow
the process. If the Marxian time line was based on the division of the world into two classes of
have and have not, the process world churn through history until a the correct class, the
oppressed proletariat was in a majority. As man stumbles into the 21st century and still have a
tendency for war as solution, it seems mankind has not beaten itself up enough to determine what
rationality is.

Why States Conflict – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Constructing a theory of international relations on why nations conflict needs a baseline on the natural state of man. This condition will be defined as a state of progressive cooperation. The paradigm in how man views the world is filtered through evolutionary characteristics and artificial systems used in cooperation. Man perceives the changing environment as a threat to survival, hence the need to add progressive in describing cooperation. There have been three important factors in this development, genetic evolutionary adaptations into societal morals, and the use of tools into reliance on technology, and the fear of death by natural being replaced by the fear of being outside society. From a tribal group to modern state, a society survived by developing a system to work together not internal competition. This cooperation influenced by morals, technology, and common fears established states which are the main actors in international relations. States are the highest functioning level of acceptable cooperation and the number one preference of a society. This preference is entirely wired into the human subconscious mind whereas one looks for a maximum cooperation in in those genetically similar. After centuries of specialized development mankind’s preferences are set. Therefore a world system of cooperation that eliminates states is not possible as it against human capabilities. Upon understanding the three contributed factors of this development, the cause of conflict will be defined as deviation from accepted norms of cooperation.
Slight differences that exist in a state’s unique system of cooperation are a product of its environment and the results are cultures. It is not natural resources or population size that defines success. Nor is geographic location that ensures its survival. The cultural aspects of a society are the determining factors in its form of internal cooperation. Differences do exist in religious, economic, and social structures but it is the high level of development cooperation, not the unique of physical characteristics of a state. For example, Islam as a ruling religious entity does not contain traits that make it a successful system rather the function of the system as a whole regardless of its qualitative factor. Compare Islam to Christianity in the 8th century. The relative superiority at that time was due to cooperation in unified area, not specific characteristics of being a better form of religion. One can conclude that societies are sub-actors in the state system because the describe the type of internal cooperation.
The individual does not qualify as a sub-actor as it is to reliant on society for its definition. Neither does the leadership of a state qualify as a sub-actor. What is called government, are only the preferences of a society as a whole. Leadership is a natural condition for cooperation to exist. Man’s life cycle is totally developed for interdependency. This subconscious drive in daily decisions to adhere to group cooperation rules out individuals as a qualifying sub-actor. If leadership could could be define as a sub-actor, would interchanging them have any effect. Placing Richard Nixon in Beijing and Mao Zedong in Washington DC in 1970 would not have changed international relations as they would have been rejected by their respective new societies. Leaders are an extension of the aggregate preferences of a society.
Societies, which evolved into modern states, were described with three main stages which enabled cooperation. Physical traits evolved biased towards cooperation within a group, the use of tools a reliance on technology, and fear of death developing into fear of inclusion in society. It is import to understand deviation by a state from these normative stages causes conflict which shall be described later. History is strewn with societies which have disappeared not adhering to the three factors. Morals are not those judged on the actual values promoted. Rather, the morals developed based on their value in supporting cooperation to a higher stage of development qualifies their importance. The ancient cultures of the Americas used human sacrifice to appease the natural environment. To them it was a morally correct pattern of behavior, but when viewed with other societies that promoted such values, they have been destroyed by cultures who deemed this a deviation from the norms of cooperation.
Our genetic evolution developed on the need for cooperation to survive. If the natural state of man is war, then our daily speech patterns would be quite different. Are our daily conversations started with greetings or warnings? Does man convey knowledge with complex speech patterns or sound out warning calls like a carnivorous four legged mammal? Homosapien species would have no need to pass on knowledge if it was every individual only concerned for themselves. If our state in nature was violent then man would have evolved differently with multiple births after a short pregnancy and quick maturation. Instead natural evolution gives humanity a unique method of procreation which also enables the passing of knowledge, especially of techniques of cooperation.
Societies that have gone from simple tools to high technology are also dominant globally. Empires, societies, and states have come and gone that focused on developing tools for conquering. The strongest states today emerged from agricultural societies. And without this industrialization could not have formed. The history of this shows cooperation within the boundaries of state as not only optimal but preferred. And it was through the use of technology in a cooperating method rather than just purely for conflict that gave man this preference. The victors in the Second World War were not the states using technology solely for conflict as was Nazi Germany. Rather, the Allied Nations by the use of technology applied to economic factors such as the means of mass production and distribution. This high level of cooperation gives a facade that the morally better side was victorious. However, it was the side applied norms regardless of qualitative properties.
Unfortunately, the use from tools supporting group survival has become a reliance on technology. It is an abnormal step in human evolution as it is deteriorating the need for group dynamics. The dependency on technology not only affects natural forms of communications but is a source of potential conflict. Group mentality now equates societal survival with scientific advances and the potential loss as a source for conflict. Technology is becoming an evolutionary dead end as it is becoming a standard on which to a level of a society on the quantitative not the qualitative terms. This is also detrimentally influencing the third factor in man’s development in the goal of cooperation, the replacing of the fear of death with the fear of exclusion from society. International relations bases cooperation on face to face meetings and one should fear the day when technology replaces this.
Thomas Hobbes’ idea the fear of death that caused man to surrender to a higher authority may have been valid when cowering in a cave. Primitive man need a group to survive but today the group is a standard for identity. Rational judgment is no longer based on the essential but rather societal values. Man functions day to day almost unaware of this condition. Reactions to those going outside a society’s norms are not frowned upon because the threaten group survival. Instead, individual decisions are influenced by group standards and the fear of rejected. The more advanced a society the greater this fear. In early societies exclusion was certain death but today examples abound on the effects of these pressures. The first items the poor in developing nations obtain when escaping an extreme level of poverty are mobile telephones and televisions. Are these tools for survivals? Are they purchasing a television based on what will be shown or rather just possessing one? And to whom will they call to help them escape the fear of death? This stage of development in cooperation within a society has again become another evolutionary dead end. In developed nations, are credit cards traditionally at their maximum limits due to purchasing survival needs or satisfying the need to be materially equal to the cultural standards?
These three stages define states are today but how can they explain why states conflict? The answer again lies in the paradigm of our existence. Man views the world through preferences predetermined by genetic modifications geared towards cooperation. However, the physical characteristics play a major role in this. The mind will sense cooperation is possible with like types. A foreign characteristics triggers a subconscious warnings that the brain processes as not so much a threat but a detriment to cooperation. Than how does one account for multi-racial populations in states? Over time different races in a state do began to co-exist in a societal evolution. A small ratio of a different ethnic group can in 2 or 3 generations become accepted in the mode of cooperation. A large number will isolate itself into a state of isolation within the state. The larger the number or the higher the degree of difference in culture, the more this isolation exists. This of course causes friction. Increase the severity of different traits, both genetic and societal (religious or economic system), to a point were it is a deviation from what a state has come to prefer as as norm, then conflict will occur.
Many aspects of cooperation are however transferable between states. This due to commonalities in advanced societies. Attempting to transfer methods of cooperation to unequal states can result in conflict. Unequal can be defined as advanced technology or accepted standards of moral behavior. The era of early European colonization is an example. Less advanced societies coming
Technology in international relations is used as a tool for inter-state cooperation and is considered normative behavior. A states will share that which it considers an essential component of cooperation from its point of view. When a state sees another with a similar form of cooperation, democracy to democracy or fascist to fascist state, it is more likely to share technology. However, when a state decides to deviate from this norm and use technology as in a non-cooperative form such as military capabilities, the potential for conflict increases. There is a fine line as military technologies will be shared as not to threaten the donating state. Hitler and Mussolini had similar systems in their respective states but Italy still used Italian designed tanks and airplanes even though the armaments were inferior. Transfers of threatening technology in today’s world such as nuclear devices causes alarm and potential conflicts. A nuclear power plant is viewed it on a different fashion, as long as the nations have similar ideas on preferred ideologies on cooperation. When flirting with the Kremlin, the idea of India obtaining nuclear technology from the United States was improbable. Having opened up its economy to Western standards of economic trade, completely changed the scenario making it possible.
The shift from a fear of death to a fear of exclusion permeates the international state system. The League of Nations disbanded as it was a mechanism to stop conflict from occurring. Not all states participated and if they did so were not totally committed to binding its fate to other nations. When states started being wiped off the map and the death of a state became a reality, the United Nations was created and became a system for cooperation. Today the 192 member states can not imagine being excluded from the United Nations. And even if a nation was wiped off the map in a conflict, it would not loose its seat in the assembly. In the last century, states have gone from cowering in a cave in a world of military inequalities to attending a world organization with the status of equality. The most powerful tools used in international relations is no longer military alliances. In addition to the United Nations, other organizations such as the World Band and World Trade Organization have developed through state cooperation that can punish deviate behavior by exclusion from group cooperation.
The condition when the international state system is in balance of power, is just a stagnation point in competing forms of cooperation throughout the system. When a society develops a more advanced system of cooperation there are two possible results. The other states accept it as viable and the state becomes a hegemon. Or such a changes are viewed as a threat. Differences only cause friction and are the normal condition. Conflict is abnormal and is caused by a major deviation in morals, technology, and/or fears of one of the state viewing another.
Different stages in morals, technology, and changing fears have been described by many political scientist as points in history where man’s paradigms have changed. Would a specialization of of the paradigm be better definition? Mankind is trapped in the current paradigm due to the similarity of all systems of cooperation involved. The state is the largest form of a society in which groups can coexist with minimal genetic and societal differences. This system will never be replaced by a world system of cooperation without borders. The century upon century of cultural development and politically development can not be undone. technology, and decision making based on fears as lead to the creation of the state. Now that these stages have reached their limit in development so has man’s ability to cooperate is limited by the boundaries of the state. The current international systems of states should survive thousands of more years.
If man has such a highly developed state of natural and artificial cooperation, why does conflict exist? Essentially the modern state system is a dead end. Man’s capability to cooperate is at its limits. Borders are not geographic barriers but limits of normative preferences of culture in its attempts to cooperate. These preferences have spread worldwide due to their ability to optimize cooperation internally by a dominant culture. Without the Han, China would break off into different states. And viewing the former Czechoslovakia, with no dominant form of cooperation, two states were formed. Essentially, the system will remain the same with minor adjustments to accepted norms.
Whatever historical stage of cooperation is the accepted standard in defining a state, variation from this by a state will cause conflict with other states. The appearance of a Republican France, acceptable today, at its inception was considered an abnormality by the other European states and resulted in conflict. Following the Great War of the 20th Century, the Versailles Treaty set norms for cooperation based the self-determination of peoples. Further to the east, the Russian Revolution was a form of self-determination but unaccepted. This set up the following decades of the Cold War, but was the fear of states Russia’s military might? One could believe it was the fear of communism as it was considered a deviation from the norms of cooperation. On paper, communist ideals are very efficient in ensuring survival of a state and maximizing cooperation. Its qualitative properties are completely disregarded as they counter our evolutionary patterns of cooperation.
Accepted levels in reliance on technology greatly effects international relations. Dependency on oil as a source for energy, causes states to conflict. Iran’s conversion to an Islamic State has the United States nearing a conflict stage. Cultural differences between states causes friction but when internally a state deviates from behavioral standards of cooperation, that becomes threatening. A state will view the personality of such state as demonic if it behaves in a manner to disrupt this preference for technology. A state would rather fight than lower its level of technology use. It is even more unlikely to change its internal behavior from other states actions. Could the United States thirty years ago cooperated to relive this reliance on accepted technologies? The answer is obvious in the current stage of affairs. This is a prime example of the evolutionary dead end man’s ability cooperate has reached. If a the concept of a state has reached its maximum level of development, how can evolve into a world system?
Morality in international affairs and is an important factor on why states conflict. Though many states internally behave outside standards of behavior, they are often ignored and conflict between states does not occur. However, since the characteristic of moral standards is a trait of all states, the concept of correct behavior in relations is therefore extended. Once certain levels have been reached throughout the system they can not reversed. When a state has a civil war or slaughtering a minority group, the boundaries of the state are still respected by other states. If however, enters into another state’s area of internal cooperation then conflict can occur. This interference does not have to be physical in nature. Wars have occurred on just the demands of one state imposing its method of preferred cooperation on a another. Nazi Germany did proposition Poland to align with it before eventually invading. In World War II, economic actions buy the the United States had a major influence on Japan’s decision to start a conflict. World War I traces its beginning to a list of demands before a shot was fired state against state. Oddly, the misuse of one of mankind’s greatest evolutionary traits, speech, when used abnormally from its intended design of cooperation, has and will cause conflict amongst states.
Understanding the importance of man’s development gives a reference point on why states conflict. If a state acts abnormally in regards to the the paradigm of human cooperation, then one state will be at odds with the other. The more severe the deviation from the norm, the greater the chance of conflict.

Why did the Vietnam invade Cambodia in 1978? Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The 1978 invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam, two socialist states, defied traditional Marxist-Leninist theory on the causes of war, revolutionary vis-a-vis reactionary forces. The socialist Indochinese Democratic Front had been collaborating on elimination of imperialist powers from Southeast Asian soil since 1936. Yet the socialist fabric of international brotherhood shredded revealing long tempered social and political differences between the Cambodia and Vietnam. But were long term issues or recent developments the cause of the conflict? Could outside intervention from other more powerful states have coerced the Vietnam into invading Cambodia ? The identifying of the all possible causes of the Vietnamese invasion is the goal of this case study.
1- Vietnamese desires to satisfy economic needs.
Vietnam’s high population density and limited arable land caused a historic sense of envy for the fertile Cambodian plains. The Khmer nation has been well aware of this fact. Cambodia’s fertile plains and water system filled with immense stocks of fish have been coveted by Vietnam since the 19th century.
2- Contested borders unresolved since decolonization.
The internecine desires were frozen during the imperial French occupation. The boundaries demarcated by the French, which in reality saved Cambodia from extinction, did not take into account post-colonial interests. . The lack of an agreed upon post-colonial border satisfying Cambodia’s and Vietnam’s interests, rather than the French decision.
3- War as a diversion from domestic problems.
Vietnam was economically in shambles after a long and bloody civil war. The only viable functioning aspect was the military. Without any alternatives, a militaristic policy was kept in place to distract from domestic issues.
4- Military capability to launch an invasion.
Vietnam was dependent on Red China and the Soviet Bloc as weapons suppliers during the Vietnam War. The military aid lacked heavy offense weapons as the donor nations wanted to avoid escalating the conflict but preferred bleeding the United States. When the United States pulled out of South Vietnam, Moscow then allowed heavy offensive weapons, tanks and artillery, be sent to Hanoi. Once used to capture Saigon, these new capability was then turned Cambodia.
5- Assured victory of an invasion.
Hanoi’s spy network knew the poor economic conditions and the weak military status of Cambodia. Combined with the Khmer Rouge’s continued purging of it’s leadership ranks assured Hanoi of an overwhelming victory.
6- Conflict was inevitable.
Cambodia mobilized its army placed the bulk of its forces along the border in preparation for an invasion. A first strike by Vietnam was a rational decision.
7- Rhetoric From Phnom Penh.
Pol Pot began a open propaganda campaign for the destruction of the Vietnamese ethnic population in Cambodia and the entire nation of Vietnam. Additionally, he promoted the idea of Cambodian ethnic population living in the southern portion of Vietnam (Kampuchea Krom) rising up again to rise up in revolt.
8- Lack of will by a hegemon to prevent an invasion.
Vietnam was considered a showcase nation for the Marxist cause. With this at hand, Hanoi knew it had an unbreakable relationship with its patrons in Moscow. The United States withdrawing from the region left Vietnam the without any deterrent. The United nations also refused to place a peace keeping force on along the border and requested the two countries use diplomacy.
9-No economic penalties for conducting an invasion.
Vietnam received three million dollars a day from the Soviet Union in economic support that it would not loose if it invaded Cambodia. It had no trade partnerships to be lost by aggressive behavior.
10- Cambodia continually violated Vietnamese territory.
Khmer Rouge forces were regularly attacking over the border destroying Vietnamese villages. Before retreating they would also move the markers demarcating the border.
11- Failure of diplomacy.
The relationship between the two communists states was based on Marxist revolutionary principals joining to expel colonial occupying forces. After the goal was obtained, no organizational mechanism existed for diplomatic dialog. The Vietnamese-Cambodian relationship was that of Hanoi acting superior to Phnom Penh. This lack of sovereign equality escalated into violence as a resolution.
12- Balance of power in the region going to be unstable in the future.
Cambodia’s decade long policy of neutrality ended with the Khmer Rouge takeover. As Phnom Penh and Beijing strengthened their alliance, the balance of power in the region would tilt against the Vietnamese. To stabilize the region an invasion was a solution.
13- To end the genocide taking place.
Hanoi was well aware of the atrocities taking place in Cambodia due to its extensive spy network and defecting Khmer Rouge leadership. The invasion was implemented on humanitarian reasons to stop the genocide. Additionally, many being killed were purges because of possible links to Vietnam, either by ethnicity, family relations, or having been trained in Vietnam.
14- International Proxy Battleground.
The political influence from the Kremlin pressured Hanoi into the invasion. As the Beijing’s relationships between Moscow and Hanoi continued to decline. The Kremlin used Vietnam as a pawn its worldwide ambitions of being the leading communist state. The potential to eliminate Cambodia as an ally of Red China fit into Moscow’s foreign policy goals.
Weighing in the possible causes and deciding the reason needs to include the timing of the event. The conditions had never been more favorable for this action to occur. Combining this with and Hanoi making a rational decision to invade would point to a combination of causes. The idea that humanitarian or ideological reasons seems illogical. It would not matter which form of political system was in Phnom Penh or how abnormal Cambodia acted. The fact was as a stronger power in relative military and economic strength, Vietnam’s invasion would accomplish foreign policy goals. With the possibility of increased economic security, secure borders, and removal of a threat, Hanoi’s decision was ultra-rational. The choice was as easy as swatting a mosquito, a natural reaction to a nuisance.
Applying the Case Study in the Constructed Theory of Why Nations Conflict
If the theory has been constructed on evolved and developed normative behavior, then irrational action in international relations are judged so in reference to the standards of the time period. Both nations during the time tensions were escalating were member of the UN and considered sovereign states. The world was divided into to main spheres of cooperation, Marxists and Democratic, with the remainder being lured by both sides. Vietnam and Kampuchea fell into the Marxists camp yet had a long history of social and economic similarities. Additionally, both states suffered from the ravages of the respective wars of national liberation. The differences were few, their needs similar, so what could have caused the conflict?
The need to place the theory in a category is the next priority. Comparing similarities and differences with the main ideologies of political science should give the ability to label the theory. First the application of scientific method against Kuhn and Simon will be attempted. The theory states the goal as maintaining state sovereignty, inline with Kuhn’s idea of the way things out to be and it defines the interface as cooperation. Society is a sub-actor creating values and determines leadership for the state as the preferred goals are determined by an aggregate of the state’s. The study of what Kuhn call “architecture of complexity” will describe the the characteristics of the state. The theory departs from Kuhn’s idea of paradigm shifts. The theory’s paradigm is set and has evolved due to environmental factors and basically painted itself into a corner. No major shifts occur just gradual development into a system of sovereign states.
Simon’s “all you need to know is the goals and the environment “ theory has some similarities. The idea of cooperation within a state determines its qualities: adhering to domestic preferences effect foreign policy, people act rationally, economic power is ignored, leaders are not interchangeable, and man’s needs change change and so do his artifacts. With society as a sub-actor its preferences would be an aggregate, therefore the concept of satisficing is applicable.
Realism’s promoters, Machiavelli, Hobbes, and Morgenthau would have a field day dismantling the constructed theory. Machiavelli would question the lack of advice for leadership as it determines the survival of the state. Interpersonal relationships are completely ignored as ell is any form of discipline necessary to operate a state. Hobbes would not see any reasoning in the man’s state of nature being cooperation. No higher power exists surrender to in order to survive, and the fear of death has been overcome. The theory implies laws and leadership have always existed in the history of man’s society, whereas Hobbes states that this did not exist. Hobbes focuses power from the top and the theory presented from the bottom. Morgenthau believes the international politic landscape places power as the main interest. This counters the theory’s concept that accepted norms of cooperation drives a state’s behavior. With a foundational principle that a state’s behavior can not be judged for certain, Morgenthau would dismiss the theory’s concept of a unified characteristics of all states having the same motives. Morals, though acknowledged by theories of Realism, take a backseat. The theory proposed states that this is a primary motivation in state’s decision making in international relations. A realist would act based on relative power within the system, the theory states a deviation from a norm must occur before states will react.

The Idealism of Mitrany, Cobden, and Kant will next to discussed in defining the theory’s label. Mitrany desires that functional organizations will overtake the world and replace states as the main actors. The constructed theory places limits on the capabilities of a state due to their characteristics and functional organizations will not replace their importance. Common interest between is the main binding factor of his theory counter to common interest is only a binding factor within a state. Both do contain the concept of a universal experience for mankind, Mitrany’s being Euro-centric, and the theory a universal development of norms of cooperation. He also argues states cannot meet the demands of the modern world but the theory disagrees. With the aggregate of a culture determining the leadership, a state will be content with its leadership or if preferences change, will change the leadership. What may seem good for the planet as a whole or region will not supersede the entrenched concept of a state. States will be self-regulating without functional organizations. This is because functional organizations are a recent development in relations to the state system. It may take a few more centuries before it becomes a norm of cooperation but it still will not replace the state.
Cobden looks at economic issues determining state behavior, but oddly so does the theory. He identifies capitalism as the solution to war, but that the current system that has been accepted worldwide? Middle class interest in his view will run the government, but in a state that prefers cooperation, a middle class is the result. Cobden rationalize economic decisions because they benefit the whole of a society and ensure a healthy sovereign state. It is a preference for cooperation within the state that he claims is desirable for all states to end conflict. In a roundabout way, the theory is a generalization of this without the economic factors. Criticism of Cobden could be used against what has been proposed, all states have the same interests in economics, rationality is based on the human experience, and conflict is created when other states act counter to accepted norms.
Kant prescribes the way things should be by defining the necessary common qualities for states and as the peace is the desired outcome. The theory generally relates to this but again is less detailed. The theory states cooperation is the natural state of man, Kant has it as a goal but by means of a republican constitutions throughout all states. He regards the the natural state of man as the threat of war counter to the theory it is cooperation. He further desires an eventual world government on common values. Counter to this, the theory disregards world governance and as long as all states share a common form of cooperation within a relative range of diversity due to cultural characteristics, peace will be maintained. Kant has people as actors, but the theory claims that people are just a product of the cultural environment and are not decision makers. The concept relating no peace if a despotic governments rule. The theory would counter this that if all governments hared the same method, regardless of qualitative factors, peace would be maintained. Kant wants the removal of standing armies, elimination of secret treaties, and no interference in other states affairs. Counter to that, if it is a norm, than it is acceptable and peace will be maintained. Agreement is met on the concept of equal sovereignty, but state behavioral norms are relative to the times not to set concepts by a ideal theorist.
Marxists would agree with the framework of history but not the end result. The theory places no right or wrong on how the state system evolved into a functioning unit. Marxists would dislike the lack of economic factors and no reference to class structure. The use of a dictatorship of the proletariat would be fine under the theory, but since it was rejected by the state system as a whole, it did not become a norm. Marxism becoming a worldwide system of cooperation would not be acceptable, unless it devolved into socialism in one country application and tailored itself to cultural realities. At its prime, Marxism was counter to the normative behavior accepted as realistic by the majority of mankind. It differences caused friction but did not deviate enough to create conflict between states.
Behavioralism supporters, Holsti, Deutsch, and Huxley may at least nod in agreement of some portions of the theory. Holsti presumes states act like people act , therefore the study of people will explain state behavior. This parallels the theory to some degree. His division between elites and masses goes into more details, wherein the theory unifies leadership with the masses. Furthermore, Holsti assumes shared interests of all human beings, the theory claims that since man’s existence had evolved around cooperation, interests are predetermined by evolutionary development and not something that can be preferred.
Deutsch describes a society as a group of people that have learned to work together. This contains some basic components of the theory and relates to the basis for constructing a cultural aspect in the develop of a state. Deutsch factors in membership to a group as key element which would be in agreement. The theory lacks description on the internal strata of a state making more amoeba like and Deutsch details the strata of relationship in a state. Huxley associates group preferences as predetermined in order to maintain cohesion within a state, the theory runs similar but rather than determined by a higher authority, its goals come from the aggregate of preferences over time. Huxley has violence eliminated a foreign policy tool and instead uses it as a training device to set expectations of behavior. The theory has expectations preordained and violence used to punish actions outside the norm.
The Neorealists, Bull and Waltz, are the next consideration in attempting to label this theory. Bull’s description of sovereign states is inequality in regards to vulnerability in which the more powerful states can influences other without resorting to war, which the theory does not consider. He goes on to describe the rights and duties of a sovereign state in the anarchical international system, and how they provide what is necessary for their people, so there is no need for a world government to do what is already accomplished. For Bull, war is a necessary function and used as a tool, but the theory considers violence as a punitive measure in resolving deviation from the status quo.
Waltz qualifies states on the level of power they have and goals are to maximize power. He feels this is rational behavior in the the anarchy of international relations. His theory suggest goals are set by power distribution in the system but rather by the theory stating each state functioning in harmony within itself is goal enough. Where his theory has similarity to micro-economics, the constructed theory now seems more anthropological rather than political. Waltz’s also considers multi-polar power distribution as a factor in balancing power, where the theory does not have states comparing their relative status based on power at all. He also assumes perfect competition and dominant characters of a state as does the created theory.
Neoidealist Keohane has some coincidental application to the theory. He defines cooperation in a system as self-interest automatically assists together to achieve their goals. Discord in his view, is the imposition one state on another. Therein ends, as the theory presented only has conflict to enforce a state to return its behavior to that of the majority’s belief in normal behavioral patterns. In Keohane’s ideas, cooperation to resolve difference is possible, the theory does not address this issue at all. Keohane labels errant behavior in international affairs as illegitimate, where in the theory, the term deviation is used by seems to be applied towards internal action of a state that seem threatening to other states. Actors value cooperation and are linked by common values, are principles of his and the theory.
A world system’s view such as Wallerstein’s is the finally application. He specifies the characteristics of states by relative power identified by economic factors such as labor and production. The theory does not consider anything like this. Both theories ignore state characteristics. Overall his theory talks about the cyclical nature of a world system where decisions are determined by position in the system. The theory looks at a linear time line in which preferences unify on maximizing cooperation. There are economic actors in his theory which operate outside control of sovereign states, which again was ignored in developing the theory.
The quick lashing by political theorists’ whips have the theory confessing to be a somewhat of a Behavioralist but with a few commonalities with Idealist and Realists. The case study of Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia favored Realist behavior. Applying the case study will flush out not only the weakness of the theory but which theory’s label it represents. The primary causes for or Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1978 were its ability to do so successfully due to its greater military power, the timing was right, and it was a longterm aspiration to acquire Cambodian lands. Comparing the case study and all its causes for the conflict against a theory that favors deviation from cooperation should show how extremely flawed it is.
1- Vietnamese desires to satisfy economic needs.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

No where does the theory specifically state anything about economics. As it was not a valid cause, there is nothing here for or against the theory.

2- Contested borders unresolved since decolonization.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

The norm for cooperation would be to have accepted the previously agreed upon border. Cambodia was disregarding it and such behavior ignoring demarcated borders would be a cause by the theory but not in the case study. So again, nothing validates the theory here.

3- War as a diversion from domestic problems.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

Cambodia was acting very abnormally in its aggressive stance towards Vietnam and had an economy that was on the verge of collapse. But its Marxists economic system was similar to Vietnam's.

4- Military capability to launch an invasion.
(Determined as a cause of the conflict.)

The theory states that as long as something is a norm, than it would not cause a conflict in the system. Vietnam, Cambodia, Red China, USA and the other states had capabilities to launch invasion, so that seems normal for the time period. However, the theory disregards military power so there is no relation and yet another flaw.

5- Assured victory of an invasion.
(Determined as a cause of the conflict.)

This is definitely not related to the theory and yet another coffin nail.

6- Conflict was inevitable.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

The theory looks at man progressing positively into the future through commonalities. Is there any relationship to a conflict being inevitable? Hardly, so the theory did not examine long term differences in cultures but rather considered differences a cause of friction not conflict.

7- Rhetoric From Phnom Penh.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

Not a normal procedure in diplomatic relations in the 20th century and quite a deviation from acceptable procedures. May have started a conflict but not in this case.

8- Lack of will by a hegemon to prevent an invasion.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

After defining states as the most important actor and not considering a hegemon to influence states into controlling behavior, no support for the theory. A majority of states would have been needed to suppress the escalation but no method was put worth.

9-No economic penalties for conducting an invasion.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

The theory ignores economics in all aspects, especially in influencing state behavior. Once again, no relative concepts between the theory and case study.

10- Cambodia continually violated Vietnamese territory.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

Cambodia's probes into Vietnam were easily pushed back. If this was a cause, and it was abnormal behavior, than it may have supported the theory. However, Vietnam seized Cambodia not just destroying the forces continually violating their sovereignty.

11- Failure of diplomacy.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

Such importance the theory develops on norms of cooperation, but either way, Vietnam as determined by the case study, did not invade for this reason. The theory would have liked the fact Cambodia cut off negotiations.

12- Balance of power in the region going to be unstable in the future.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

As all states behaved normally internally peace would have been maintained and said nothing about a balance of power or shifts in the system. The theory does not consider looking into the future.

13- To end the genocide taking place.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

Both Cambodia and Vietnam were mistreating portions of their populations. There are laws against such abuses of humanity and it is considered deviation form normal behavior. But it has not caused one state to conflict with another. If this was the cause then the theory may have been supported.

14- International Proxy Battleground.
(Determined in the case study not to be a cause.)

The theory avoids states the use of projecting power and would consider it abnormal and reason for other states to conflict with the aggressor. Many states were using the region and it was normal international politics.  
It seems that the theory is complete garbage and the case study most likely done incorrectly. The idea that a state's behavior is determined by norms of internal cultural forms of cooperation. A state conflicts with another state due to deviant behavior does not seem to have any value. If so much emphasis is put on states being the main actors and the limit of man's capability to organize, more ideas should have been considered for interstate relations. Man might be wired for cooperation as a survival mechanism but the ideas presented start so far off base from concepts of international relations, it has no possibility of redemption or valuable application.
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Economic Statecraft: USA / Iraq – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

    The tools of economic statecraft that the USA could have used to be successful before the

invasion of Iraq (2003) revolved around the primary goal of peace and security in the region.
Instead a veil of propaganda promoting the exportation of democratic ideals (via military
statecraft) superseded the original goal. Viewing the path to peace and security using economic
statecraft requires separating the targets, using well thought out alternative techniques, and
assessing individual costs and benefits. A larger variety and targets used in alternatives requires
assessing the effects on secondary targets and when judging costs need to be balanced on
application towards the primary goal. One large application of economic statecraft is doomed to
fail without a multitude of supporting policies. The other option, military statecraft focuses on
one target and echo uncertain effects throughout a range of goals. In putting forward these
alternative policies of economic statecraft, the discussion will first center on Iraq and expand
outward in geographic regional rings. The consideration of whether Saddam Hussein should
remain in power or not would be of lesser value relative to the goal of peace and security in the
Middle East. Either containment or regime change shall not be chosen as a goal, but both are
acceptable outcomes. Isolating and reducing the threat of Iraq’s actions disrupting the region
takes priority. Additional goals concerning terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, human
rights, poverty, security of oil supplies, and keeping the region in the USA sphere of influence
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will be considered. There were alternatives to the negative economic sanctions placed on the
Iraqi people. The citizens of a nation were placed on international death row or at least by the
stubbornness of a dictator. Such economic sanctions, either positive or negative, instead needed
to target the Iraqi government.
The United Nations attempt at negative sanctions on Iraq, resembled the League of
Nations, followed the route of decide, declare, and disintegrate. Keeping dual purpose materials
out Saddam’s hands and food from Iraqi stomachs it divided states into two blocks, diplomatic
doves favoring time in order to work and impatient hawks calling for action. The military
statecraft option chosen through US leadership, holding the hand of the willing, could have
alternatively used that leadership position in an effort to adjust the sanctions. For example, the oil
for food program did not achieve its desired effect and was doomed from the start. The scandals
and kickbacks from the program and damaging effects on the Iraqi standard of living were
predictable. Therefore, the implementation of the program could have been better directed and
supervised. Involving states with less to loose financially if trouble escalated in Iraq would have
been a wise decision. And where did the tons of food supplies come from? Surely not those
poorer states with agricultural products to trade for crude oil. They would have been perfect
candidates. Imported food stuffs were items that stockpiled under Iraqi government control and
became a tool. An alternative would have substituted storable goods with the millions of tons of
fresh fruit, vegetable, and dairy products destroyed for price stabilization on the world market. If
your isolated and hungry, the last thing to do is let the prisoner determine the menu. Just how
could the Iraqi government use food to control a hungry population had they tons of fresh fruit
3
sitting in a warehouse with an impending loss of value situation? Modifying the content of food
for oil program seems logical. Additional problems arise in having not made these changes. Pull
North Korea into the equation, would they trade nuclear weapons for warehouses full of wheat?
Could this food be traded for hard currency to support the Hussein regime during sanctions?
Perishable goods to Iraq would have limit trading capabilities, instead the UN worried in detail
over dual purpose material and machines while children died needlessly. It seems like a simple
business decision that a rational person would make, dictating terms of an agreement while in a
position of relative power.
Oversight to the program could have been delegated to more neutral nations of
respectable character such as Canada, Japan, Switzerland and the Scandinavian states. The
countries that had investments (and previous connections) in Iraq, France, Russia, China, and
Germany, for example, remained involved and were obviously too liable to corruption. Isolation
through sanctions would need to focus on both sides of the coin. These modifications of positive
sanctions (oil for food) would have reduced the damaging effects on the Iraqi people, prevented
the negative world opinion on the harm of economic sanctions, and keep the UN partners hands
cleaner. The Clinton Administration just agreeing to a policy is not enough. Economic statecraft
needs to be analyzed in detail on the level of military operations.
The sanctions isolating Iraq damaged economic ties of a few states without enough
consideration for the consequences. For example the Chinese, French, and Germans had major
investments in Iraqi telecommunications infrastructure. To influence these states to abide by the
negative sanctions and agree to alternative positive sanctions suggested by the USA, there needed
4
to be benefits offered for sacrifices made, either guaranteeing a percentage of any loss incurred,
paying a subsidy to any firms loosing money under the sanctions, or even buying contracts or
products destined for Iraq. It is straightforward approach but the sanctions would have been better
supported and lasted longer under different conditions that calculated its ripple effects amongst
participants.
Other alternatives to reducing the Iraqi people’s suffering during the sanctions needed to
be implemented. There could have been the channeling of funds for medical supplies and staff
through acceptable institutions. The long ignored US Muslim population that is not in the
extremist camp may have been a good candidate. International funding combined with US
Muslim charities could work with legitimate Islamic charities (the Red Crescent) to distribute
assistance. This long isolated segment of the US population would gain respect and acceptance
stateside and display the benefits of multiculturalism to the world as a benefit. Costs would be
minimal and the technique is feasible as proven by extremist groups have been using this for
years. The UN economic sanctions, like the Iraq invasion (2003), were based on actions that
existed at one point in time and was not a functioning policy after that. A goal is not obtained by
one action and waiting for a response, a real policy would have built in contingency plans to
adapt.
Additionally aid directed for the Iraqi people could have been channeled through the
surrounding states. A enemy handing an apple to you when you are hungry looks different face to
face than through a gun sight. The traditional rivals of Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, have concerns
over more than just peace in the region, sections of the the Iraqi population are related by the the
5
Sunni and Shi’a Muslim sects of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Persuading Saudi capital to invest into
Iraqi oil infrastructure as an offer to Saddam for compliance with UN mandates was never
offered. It would have required Saddam to adjust his behavior but aid from a neighboring Muslim
nation would have a better chance of acceptance than from a state outside the region . Of course
this would have to be offered after the sanctions had further deteriorated the Iraqi economy and
infrastructure. USIran relations have suffered terribly over the past decades. Displaying concerns
for the Shi’a population and opening dialog with the Iranians to assist in the problem would have
been an opening door to better diplomatic relations. If correspondence was accomplished in the
IranContra scandal, why not use another third party state again? Iran would be resistant to
publicity of cooperation but any dialog, even if secretive, could lead to further cooperation. What
other opportunities exist for USIran relations to start? This was an excellent opportunity.
A significant problem for developing nations is the exodus of intellectuals. The USA has
been a traditional destination for of these individuals. After the September 11th attacks there has
been a significant reduction of skilled and educated labor choosing the USA as a destination.
This loss along with the decrease in foreign students, could have been substituted by a brain drain
targeted at Iraqi society. Offering benefits to defectors and the chance for a better life utilizing his
or respective field of expertise would have not only weakened Saddam’s regime. Interviewing an
academic scholar to determine his or her claimed skill or educational level would be much easier
than determining if a student or tourist is part of a terrorist cell. Costs of such a plan would have
to weighed against the cost of educating the US citizen to the same level and experience. If the
negative sanctions did not diminish Saddam’s control over the Iraqi nation, an alternative was to
6
complicate his long term ability to do so by manpower reduction.
Iran stands as a main rival to Iraq. Iran also suffers from major deterioration of its oil
industry infrastructure. If Saddam did not fear US led invasion, a strengthened Iran and possible
future war, would be an additional threat to his regime. It may be 19th century European political
attitude in nature to have a balance of power, but does stabilization have t be built on democracy
or can it be accomplished by a balance of power? Additionally, if comparing Germany’s 20th
century fears of a two front war, Saddam’s Iraq was in a much weaker state to deal with such a
possibility. If the USA announced economic aid to help boost Iran’s oil industry, either direct or
through a third party state, the weight of the statement would have its desired. Such aid could be
slated for a future date, trickled, or delayed after the announcement to target Iran into complying
with additional agreements. The announcing to possibly releasing spare parts for Iran’s aging US
built fighter aircraft could also be included. Another possible war with Iran, this time without US
military aid, could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, either by internal military coup
against Saddam or nonsupport of such a war by the populace. Potential costs of a stronger Iran
in the region would be only to the degree of aid given, and could be terminated. It may seem
extreme but the USA has let the these states to battle before, even the possibility of such could be
used to US advantage. The costs may reduce US international prestige and outrage domestic
forces in changing its hardline course towards Iran but this would only be temporary. Benefits of
a softer line on Iraq would also assist in Afghanistan reducing the threat Iran experiences by US
presence through commencing any form of diplomatic relations.
The European Union could also be swayed into supporting US policy for alternative
7
economic statecraft. As previously suggested, the covering European losses in Iraq would be a
start. A rather bold move would to be by meddling in Europe’s backyard. The goal would be to
test the European Union resolve into accepted US hegemony or stepping up to the plate and
becoming a major world actor. Europe went from one extreme to the other, imperialists to
diplomats. The USA should pressure the EU to either become a partner or get out of their way. If
the USA targeted economic aid into the Balkan and Eastern European states it may reduce the
prestige of European leadership. Europe has for the past decades been unwilling to extend it
political power into world affairs. The inability and lack of will to resolve the recent conflict in
the former Yugoslavia is proof. The USA encroaching into the European Union’s sphere of
influence would be an attempt to test its political will and become a stronger influence in world
affairs or bow to US hegemony. Saddam was aware of the differences in US and EU attitudes and
policies. By the USA forcing the EU to make a move and take a stance, it could release itself
from the divide Saddam’s could manipulate. Is it feasible? Consider the Coalition of the Willing
that allied to invade Iraq in 2003, a move was made to confirm support or resistance in regards to
the use of military statecraft. Such a move should be done to test the alliances in economic
statecraft as well. One can not assume cooperation from autonomous states that are not in direct
threat of attack from a rogue nation. Turkey, the political Achilles heal of NATO and a problem
the European Union vacillates on, could also be a target of US economic aid. A stronger US
Turkish alliance raising cooperation above NATO’s common defense policy, would seal the ring
around Hussein’s expansionist tendencies. Economic statecraft could be used to separate support
or opposition to US foreign policy.
8
One of the rallying cries to the Muslim for Saddam’s antiUS stance was the Israeli
Palestine question. The Marshall Plan using a massive economic aid to assist recovery was able
to unite a centuries war torn European continent into a cooperative political entity. Economic
prosperity is a reality the Palestinians are along way from obtaining. Positive action towards
Palestine would pull the race card from the poker hand of Saddam. Israel, could also be offered a
major package with stringent conditions to further assure the policy of peace with Palestine
would be successful. Just a percentage of what is spent on a overseas modern conflict would be
effective. Economic statecraft can, like military statecraft, erode the strengths of a targeted
opponent.
China as a nation with a developing appetite for petroleum could have been involved with
negotiating positive sanctions and aid in the region. China is searching for a greater position in
world affairs. Its expansion policy into neighboring countries and military buildup seem the only
methods available to achieving increase stature. The cash reserves and Chinese craft at using time
as an asset would be a beneficial partner. They have relations with nations in the region and
could have been an active player reducing the burden on the USA. Additionally, involving China
would continue the policy of splitting SinoRusso relations and help counter Russia’s influence in
the region. Major cost would be acceptance of China as a viable world power and US realization
that as the Soviet Union dissolved as a superpower, so did some of the status the US held.
A perplexing problem in Iraq was the shadow cast by the former Soviet Union. Russia’s
vast resources, traditional authoritarian ways, and historic interest in the region would be a
challenge to any policy based on economic statecraft. Offering the Russians a warm water port
9
or asking them to stop arms sales in the region would be a difficult prospect. The Russian will
always choose their own way and either stance to isolate them or share some influence could be
chosen. How involve in obtaining the goal of peace and security in the Middle East region
centered on Iraq through economic statecraft may prove to be extremely challenging.
A major stumbling block in US foreign policy would also have to consider the domestic
political costs and ability for the government to gather public support. Typically US foreign
policy is aimed at the Middle East to obtain secure oil supplies and sustain the US economy. Our
domestic energy policy (or lack of) is geared towards the US as the center of the economic
universe. The attitude is that of a world driver of the global economy with a firm hand grip on
the wheel. If the US is going to steer, it should at least head in a direction minimally acceptable
by the passengers. Could a combined domestic based policy and internationally focused target
be such an alternative? Action taken on a domestic front could have a targeted goal on the
international level. The do as I say, not as I do phrase could be eliminated and transformed in
positive based economic statecraft. If USA domestic actions benefited the world, it would easier
to secure long term coalition opposing Saddam’s regime. States defecting from cooperation in
economic sanctions are more detrimental in the long run that sanctions that fail in unified
attempts. A loose disgruntled coalition would be apprehensive to continued attempts as long term
economic planning. Then how could US domestic policy strengthen support for economic or
military statecraft amongst a multitude of autonomous states?
Modern military specialists speak of the psychological effects of shock and awe. When
the Bush Administration speaks of reducing oil dependency, it is more like talk and ignore.
10
Rather than implementing domestic policy requiring slight changes in social behavior, US
society continues on its selfcentered path. The US implementing various domestic policies to
reduce energy consumption with a publicly stated objective of benefiting its allies would
definitely be labeled shock and awe. If the US reduce petroleum consumption, the resultant
increased supplies would lower world oil prices. These benefits could be directed towards allies
and potential ones. For example, Europe facing reduced energy costs in a time of high
unemployment would benefit might loosen its stance to US leadership. One is more apt to follow
a leader who sets a good example. Two previous US Presidents convinced a generations to cross
an ocean and die to free Europe, couldn’t one at least try and get a generation not to run to the
mall or joyride to save fuel? There is not mush press on any congressional leader riding a bicycle
to work. Also, where did all the talk of hydrogen fueled automobiles go from Bush’s state of the
union address a few years back? It left as fast as a Tomahawk cruise missile on its way to
Baghdad. The US homeland offers an excellent opportunity to increase support for US economic
statecraft. Finally, lower petroleum prices equates to less capital flowing into the hands of
decision makers not concerned with US foreign policy goals.
The prospect of the USA approaching the coalition of nations implementing all types of
economic sanctions needed better foresight and diversity in its application. The leadership role
needed the USA to accept more costs if it was to expect others to do the same. The obvious “
obey the sanctions or else” attitude towards Iraq was about as comprehensive and well thought as
the current quagmire the USA is in now. If the poor man always pays more in the long run holds
true, then the USA is truly a poor man. If half of the estimated 400 billion dollars spent on the
11
war were directed on positive economic statecraft, either towards Iraq or the Middle East region,
the USA may have regained its preCold War stature as a genuine benevolent state.
If the goal of sanctions was to damage Saddam Hussein, two outcomes were possible,
either his compliance with regards to United Nations demands or regime change by popular
uprising or military coup. The negative sanctions were relatively ineffective in either case. The
addition of positive economic actions may have given the Iraqis something long forgotten, hope.
If the Iraqi people looked at neighboring Islamic nations conditions as measure of US policy in
the region, keeping Saddam may have been a lesser of two evils. A situation that is bad yet
familiar is a rational choice to uncertainty of future conditions. The US and European Muslim
population are not known praising the treatment received as immigrants. In either economic or
military statecraft, some change is needed by governmental action.
President Bush had two options in regards to calling upon his Christian faith as a leader.
The first option was the sword to backup economic sanctions against Iraq. Let us not forget the
use of the word crusade in one of his public statements. The second option is the long forgotten
Christian principal of charity, let alone forgiveness. Commonalties in the two religions were not
applied to the policy of economic statecraft. Christian based nations chose to create poverty
rather than alleviate it. The longstanding alienation of the Muslim world has reached a new level
and at the crossroads, the USA took a shortcut. By not adjusting economic statecraft to obtain
goals, the US gambled with military statecraft without regard for real negative side effects.
Foreign policy towards Muslim extremists, like the economic statecraft polices towards Iraq,
passed on from the Clinton to Bush Administration clearly failed. The policy of economic
12
sanctions again will be filed under the failed, labeling all forms of economic statecraft as
ineffective. If the resolve is found to attempt economic statecraft in the future, it should be
conducted on multiple levels and targets using a complete arsenal of techniques in innovative and
even unorthodox ways.

Country Study: Slovakia – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

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"Old habits of inertia pose massive obstacles to change.”1
The Christmas of 1991 brought the unexpected collapse of USSR. The rejoicing, would

however, be overshadowed by a socioeconomic hangover throbbing in the former Soviet
satellites of Eastern Europe.2 After decades of imbibing on the lies of working towards socialism,
the bottle had run dry. Many of the newly democratized states’ populations had only known
success in modern human development in the areas of education, industrialization, urbanization,
and health care under the imposed MarxistLeninist system. Democracy and liberal economic
policies based on the individual were not only foreign but for decades labeled as detrimental to
the working class. The expectations of what government’s role in society was, though socialist,
provided more for the people than the previous centuries of political systems in the region.
As each nation struggled to find a vector for the future, the choice in Western eyes seemed
obvious create democratic republics and a liberal freemarket economies. Is it correct to expect

1 Zbigniew Brzezinski. New York Times. “Will The Soviet Empire Selfdestruct?; Four Scenarios for
Failure”; available from http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.
htmlres=950DE1DA113DF935A15751C0A96F948260&scp= 1&sq=Zbigniew+
Brzezinski+Old+habits+of+inertia+pose+massive+obstacles+to+change.&st=nyt; Internet; accessed 10
April 2008.
2 In 1989, Slovakia (as part of Czechoslovakia, along with Bulgaria, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and
Romania, owed the West 100 billion US dollars. Leon Aron. The Heritage Foundation. “Gorbachev’s Brest
Litovsk: The Kremlin’s Grand Compromise in Eastern Europe”; available from
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/bg724.cfm; internet accessed; 16 April 2008.
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such a change over without understanding the viewpoint of those under going this transition?
Without a variety of choices, the direction was set for the future. However, the determining at
which velocity to pursue new policies became the complicating issue. Originally the goals were
not if these new states planned to switch to a Westernstyle political, economic, and social
system, but rather to what degree when considering how capable given the entirety resources
available.
Once an anvil under the blows of European history, Slovakia now emerges declaring itself
as the heart of Europe. The long standing and strong sense of national identity over a millennium
worth of struggle finally place it in command of its future. Geographically and historically it has
experienced both Eastern and Western European cultural influences. This current positioning in
Europe has Forbes magazine bestowing the title, “The world’s next Hong Kong or Ireland”.3
Unfortunately, neither sides influence has been an entirely beneficial experience for the Slovaks.
Centuries over overseers have definitely honed the defiant nature of the national Slovak character.
Now on their own for 17 years, will Slovakia extract the best from what both the East and
West have to offer in the path to prosperity? Or will this dichotomy of choice breed indecision
leaving Slovakia unable to steer or stop on bumpy road of uncertainty? Always under the
influence of outside political forces, one may begin to question how the Slovak Republic’s
government will behave on its own.
3 2006 Investment Climate Statement Slovakia, Available from;
http://www.state.gov/e/eeb/ifd/2006/62032.htm; Internet accessed; 19 April 2008
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Rapid change for a society can often lead to a collapse or rebirth. Big bang economic
recovery theories to revive exSocialist economies has produced mixed results. Government
officials often resisted such changes out of fear of losing their positions of power as the working
classes had become complacent on the patronage of the state. Fifteen years have passed since the
Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia offering a unique case study. The separation into two halves
was driven by more than nationalistic desires, but also on economic matters. The Czechs were
interested in improving economic ties in from the West while the momentum of the Soviet
collapse was still fresh. To the east, Slovakia opted for a slower rate of economic change under
the guise of keeping state programs in place and lessening the overall burden on the nation’s
people. In reality, this reduced rate of change to a liberal economy in Slovakia kept in place state
controlled social programs and economic polices was a ploy to keep the populace content while
ruling elite remained in power. This choice of state sponsored stability promoted on moral
grounds was a path to autocratic policies meeting the needs of a ruling party.
No matter which conclusion one arrives at from examining the continuities or changes
that have occurred in Slovakia over the past 17 years, positioning ourselves in the Slovak point of
view is necessary. Western political scientists did not plant the seeds of the Slovakian state.
Therefore, they have to accept the taste of the fruit it bears. Throughout the 20th century,
Czechoslovakia was tied together by the policies of outside forces. The Czech point of view has
been passed over in this essay in favor of focusing on the evolution of the Slovak Republic. For
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the researcher, this has not been detrimental to obtaining data and statistics on the two regions at
the state was divided on the political administrative units and boundaries that existed.
Unfortunately these records have a down side. The small size of the Slovak nation, 5.4 million, it
does not have the resources to convert the all of its data into the English. As the information age
takes hold of Slovakia, one can hope the transference of such documents will occur.
At this time an obvious starting point would be an analysis of changes in the past (1960)
and present (1993) Slovak constitutions. However, a unique political situation determined the
creation of the document, so as a staring point will be the drama of the birth of this sovereign
nation. Like a bride with newly imagined ideas of what freedom would be after a divorce, the
egotistical nature of Slovakian political culture determined the nation’s initial direction on its
amicable split from its Bohemian brothers, the Czechs.
Political Culture: Inexperience Shows
The domestic political culture has always played second fiddle in the national song of
destiny. For centuries the governmental polices have been written by either a Hungarian,
Hapsburg, Czech, or Russian composer. This difficult position placed the traditional role of the
ruling factions, not as leadership with a solid power base supported by the will of the people, but
as compromising entity focused on its own need to survive. Political maneuvering evolved to
keep a status quo of limited autonomy in internal affairs. After twelve centuries of this political
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balancing act, Slovakia’s ruling elite, in 1993 positioned itself for independence.4 A decade and a
half latter it has yet to be seen if the political culture has matured.
When comparing the domestic political culture from 1991 until today, basically it the
same only different external factors have changed. Before the threat of Soviet interference was
dismissed by Mikhail Gorbachev, Slovakia, as part of a soviet satellite had to appease Moscow. In
2008, Brussels the European Union’s capital, doles out the regulations. A former member of
COMECON and adapting to the European Union mechanism, again finds Slovakian leadership in
a partnership as a lesser player in economic decision making. The economic directives and
standards for the economy still have weight upon the decisions of the government of Slovakia.
The attitude and makeup of the leadership from the 1991 to today remains unchanged.
Communists have been replaced by excommunists. Most top leaders were educated in the field
of law and the use of a popular referendum is not used in major decision making. Ideology for a
national directive still thrives on the sense of the Slovakian proud national identity. The banner of
“socialism with a human face” as a defiance to Soviet control has been substituted by
“democracy our own autocratic way” to the displeasure of European Union members. The old
communist style attitude of towing the popular party line, then denouncing an ally for political
purposes is still a standard practice.
4 On 25 November 1992, the Members of the Federal Assembly approved the government bill of the
Constitutional Act on the Demise of the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic as of 31 December 1992.
National Council of the Slovak Republic History. Available from; http://www.nrsr.sk/default.aspx?
sid=nrsr/historia; Internet; accessed 18 April 2008.
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Remarkably changes in the political culture have occurred. Going from a one party
system that had a real silent majority, today has a system were any majority necessary to reach a
consensus is done so by flirting with alliances. Coalitions are the de facto method of ruling
Slovakia. This points to the traditional egotistical nature of Slovakian leadership following its
own path. In 1991, a temporary sense of solidarity existed with the Czechs. It took two years for
the Slovak leadership to evolve into a coalition of nationalist and excommunists deciding to go it
alone. Though this coalition led the nation to independence, political scientists have analyzed this
separation and proposed the following competing reasons.5
•A two member federation is inherently unstable and stalemates on issues.
•Longstanding hostility.
•The breakdown of other exCommunist federations created a model for the dissolution.
•Separation was everybody’s second preference.
•Issue of market reforms.
•Czechs did not wish to go on subsidizing Slovakia.
The strange bedfellows, the nationalists and excommunists, that pushed separation
through in 1993 were just the tip of the iceberg for coalitions to come. Once this goal was
reached, the convenient partnership evolved in to today’s continuous political promiscuity.
5 John Elster. European Journal of Sociology. “Conflict Resolution in an Emerging Multi Lateral World
Transition, constitutionmaking and separation in Czechoslovakia.”; Available from;
http://www.tamilnation.org/conflictresolution/countrystudies/czech.htm; Internet; accessed on 2 April 2008
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Changing like the weather, slight disagreements and personal interests ignited party swapping,
abandonment, and creation of new factions. A few times when a majority party controlled the
National Council of the Slovak Republic (Národná rada Slovenskej republiky), party members
soon defected. Parliamentary coalitions are formed out of need to have a majority in power not
from common ideological policies benefiting the nation. Often it is not uncommon for a party’s
leader to leave over a simple disagreement and gather a new group of supporters. Overall the
general interests of the country’s leadership is selfserving leading to problems of corruption.6
The Velvet Divorce, the division of Czechoslovakia into two sovereign states, became the starting
point for fragmentation and continuous flux of Slovak political unity.
Political Power: Plenty of Parties for the Players to Choose and Diffuse From
No Slovak president since its separation from the Czechoslovakian Republic has served
two consecutive terms.7 Most elected officials in 1993 at the start of independence were ex
communists and played off the theme of autonomy for the nation.8 The decades before the break
up, nationalism, if displayed by a politician, resulted in dismissal from the political arena and a
6 A survey of domestic companies publicized last year by Slovak daily Hospodarske Noviny mentioned the
shady privatization of state companies and their politically motivated subsidizing as the main sources of
corruption. IPS.SLOVAKIA: Corruption Haunts Governing Coalition. Available from;
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=41796; Internet; accessed 19 April 2008.
7 As head of state the president of Slovakia office wields little executive power. The constitutional laws
concerning the president have been modified in the past 17 years.
8 Vladimír Mečiar’s Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) became the leading party on the concept
of the fairness of demands for autonomy. Available from; http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/History_of_Slovakia#Independent_Slovakia; Internet; Accessed on 20 March 2008,
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stint in prison. So as the nation took its first step forward, it did so following the lead of
apparatus in the parliament. No great patriotic leader leaped to the forefront, no person of great
vision inspired the nation. Soon this facade would evaporate as the reality of now pleasing
society focused on those below not above the government.
The leading political power figure in the Slovak Republic is held in the office of the
prime minister. This recent history does not displays the swing in policy direction but circus that
had become coalition forming. One must keep in mind that these prime ministers were not
elected by having their respective party in a parliamentary majority. The layout since 1991 is as
follows:
Prime Minister Party9 Platform months education / background
Vladimír Mečiar † ‡ HZDS* reform, authoritarian 12 law
Ján Čarnogurský CDS autonomy 12 law
Vladimír Mečiar ĽSHZDS• reform, authoritarian 22 law
Jozef Moravčík 9 diplomat
Vladimír Mečiar ĽSHZDS reform, authoritarian 46 law
Mikuláš Dzurinda KDH proEU & transAtlantic 93 transportation, economics
Robert Fico † SMER• antireform 21 law
† excommunist, ‡ expelled from the communist party,
*temporary majority but 4 members defected, • founder of party
9 List of Current Political Parties in the Slovak Republic located in Table 1 of the Appendix.
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Political Punching: Exposing Dirty Laundry
Reading like a novel, an examination of the first chapter in the prime minister’s office had
its share of drama. Vladimír Mečiar election as prime minister was based on his popularity due
to a being sentenced to prison for nationalistic tendencies under socialist rule. Winning with only
35% of his party in parliamentary seats his power was based on a coalition. He placed his ally
and member of HZDS, Ivan Gašparovič, in the office of presidency which at that time was
elected by 3/5 majority vote in the National Council. A scandal involving hidden microphones at
the U.S. Embassy had Mečiar calling on Gašparovič to lead the investigation, though no real
resolution of the situation took place. This apparently shows the trust the two had for each other,
though they were both noted to be corrupt. Both believe in an autocratic state but the extreme
levels of Mečiar’s open corruption caused tensions between the two. President Gašparovič viewed
the Prime Minister Mečiar moves in the economic sector under privatization of industries and
public lands as blatant asset stripping and as detrimental in attracting foreign investors along with
joining the European Union.
Verbal attacks developed into a permanent war between them. Mečiar went as far as
having Gašparovič ‘s son abducted by Slovak security forces (SIS) then dropped off in Austria in
a drunken state where he had a warrant on charges financial fraud. In and out three times, Mečiar
also simultaneously held the position of president temporarily for 3 months while prime minister
granting controversial pardons in that period. In 1999 he ran for the presidential office, which is
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now based on direct elections, and lost. His HZDS had won the most parliamentary seats by
receiving 27% of the votes (top for the 1998 elections). He then changed the name of the party to
L’SHZDS (People’s Party Movement for a Democratic Slovakia) attempting to change stripes
and form a new coalition. In this same period, his former Economy Minister and government
colleague Ján Ducký was murdered and the crime has not been solved. Closing this chapter, he
lost his bid to again become prime minister to Mikuláš Dzurinda. Further discussion on the other
prime ministers would only emphasize that political infighting is not geared to truly finding a
direction for the nation but controlling the state and the benefits to those in power.
When interviewed in 2001, Mečiar, response to his autocratic style of governance, high
level corruption, and political flipflopping on issues, and the displeasure it created in the EU
and NATO, displays a rhetoric that only an professional politician could appreciate. “We have to
ask ourselves why such a question arose in the first place. We, after all, were the ones who took a
stand against totalitarian power in 1989. We demolished the old value system and established a
new one.” It is as if he is taking credit for the collapse of the Soviet Empire in order to validate
his behavior. He protested against NATO’s bombing of Kosovo, yet says he is proNATO. Further
he stated Kosovo independence was illegal and equivalent to Nazi Germany’s seizure of the
Sudetenland. Currently on energy issues he has been courting Russia, leading to accusations of
Slovakia being a “trojan horse” in its relationship with NATO. Rather than being the heart of
Europe and a part of the spirit of cooperation amongst a variety of nations, the Slovak Republic
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plays a different role. The politic script reads like the a performance of “Greater Tuna”.10
Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics: Follow the Leaders
The past 17 years have been not only a pendulum between autocracy and democracy in
the Slovakia’s domestic politic scene, but also modulation in the international arena. Each
attempt at reform, be it more liberal or conservative in nature, allows the opposition to place
blame on the failures of the coalition in power and lead the next flock of parties. Going from a
one party system to fifteen has not been easy going. Slovakian foreign policy has a tendency to
ping pong in international affairs based on the conditions domestically. A unanimous long term
policy for the country’s direction is nonexistent. At first in 1991, united with the Czechs in
breaking away from the Soviet Union a vector was set. Two years later Slovakia changed course
by separation into a sovereign state. Sovereignty based on populism gave way to autocratic rule
under Vladimír Mečiar, open government corruption, and a stagnant economy lacking outside
investment. This limited foreign policy options as Slovakia needed to please the West’s
developmental private and public sectors. Under, Mikuláš Dzurinda, the economy and anti
corruption measures improved but not enough. With Putin’s reviving of the Russian federation
from the ashes of Mikhail Gorbachev’s policies, Slovakian politicians are shifting its eyes to the
east. Slovakia is following the banner of Putin’s“democracy in our own way” in justifying its
10 Greater Tuna is a world renown and popular modern comedy about Texas’ third smallest town, where the
Lion’s Club is too liberal and Patsy Cline never dies. A satire on small town politics it is eye opening view
to human nature. Available from;http://www.greatertuna.com/
gt/greater.htm Interent; accessed on 20 April 2008.
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behavior and of course will result in much friction with the European Union.
The domestic virus of political party promiscuity will remain a problem until a strong
political leader emerges. The need is for a autocraticflavored strong leader to eliminate the
corruption. This open up its options in foreign policy. The West would likely look the other way
on a reduction of democratic values in order to secure a better investment climate. To the east, a
semiautocratic leader would please the Russian Federation by both having less Western
influence in the region in terms of political ideology and the ease of negotiating with a single
political leader matching Russia historical ruling style. Is this choice for a a semidictatorial state
desirable? In view of Slovakia’s economic progress, though respectable, it is falling short of
meeting expectations internationally as well as domestically. A turn to the past may be the only
viable option. A climate that is more probusiness is a necessity for fertilizing domestically
grown democracy. Anticorruption attempts in their fragmented alliance system has not
accomplished its goals.
To claim corruption is the main impediment to foreign policy in international affairs, one
must first see not only the domestic levels but the attitude. Recent polls by Transparency
International Slovakia, shows citizens considering corruption as secondary problem.11 Since
1991 this has been evident. Polls from then placed fears of domination by a foreign power high on
the list, 56% stated this would come from the U.S., 30% by Russia. A remarkable amount
11 Transparency International Slovakia. Available from; http://www.transparency.sk/english/; Internet
accessed; 19 April 2008.
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preferred communism (32%), and many hope for a continuation of intense state sponsored social
programs (67%).12 Economic growth needs adaptation to the global system, but unemployed or
underpaid Slovakian citizen has different ideas on the how their lives should function.13
To justify stating domestic problems guide compound foreign policy one must understand
just how wide spread this disease is prevalent in Slovakia?
Summary Indicators of Experiences with Corruption14
Households Percent making unofficial payments in previous two months 14.4
Percent making unofficial payments in previous three years 41.3
Enterprises Percent making unofficial payments in the previous two months 17.6
Percent making unofficial payments in the previous three years 41.4
Public Officials Percent offered a small gift in the previous two years 42.3
Percent offered money or an expensive gift in the previous two years 9.7
12David P. Forsythe, ed. , Human Rights in the New Europe : Problems and Progress. (Lincoln:
University of Nebraska Press, 1994), 113.
13The history of 20 Century Slovakia human rights took a back seat to economics. Forsythe,
Human Rights in the New Europe:Problems and Progress., 86.
14Corruption in Slovakia Results of Diagnostic Surveys. World Bank and the United States Agency for
International Development. Available from; www.tur.vlada.gov.sk/data/files/2764.doc; (accessed April 19th
2008)
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There are fifteen political parties registered with six in parliament. In the past two
decades close to ten parties have dissolved, split, or absorbed one another. As in Russia’s recent
history, such a variety of parties causes not a stalemate, but more of a political wheel spin.
Energy is wasted politically that could be focused on the nation’s issues. Slovakia could become
the Egypt of the 21st century, playing off the politics of the Russian Federation and the European
Union. In the minds of Russians, one often hears the Great Patriotic War ended only yesterday.
Overlaying this concept on the mental state of the Slovaks after centuries of AustroHungarian
rule and decades of Soviet domination, sovereignty started only moments ago. The political
maturity of Slovakia has not evolved enough, nor does it have the resources, to solving its
problems. Until this can be overcome, factions will abuse the domestic political system as the
momentum from the reemergence of the region evaporates after the Soviet collapse.
If the Slovak Republic cannot completely take command of its future on the world stage ,
will it prefer to relinquish more of its sovereignty to the European Union in obtaining solutions to
its situation? Or will it continue to muddle about, playing with the West, rather than obtaining
needed capital resources and expertise? When Eastern Europe and the Balkans were “liberated”
under the Wilson Doctrine, the West had high hopes for its success. Slowly these new
democracies backslid in notsodemocratic semicorrupt rule, expecting the same a century later
is not so implausible. A shift to a defiant and autocratic state would place the Slovak Republic in
need of a patron. An obvious choice may be its last liberator, the Russians. However, many
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changes have taken place in the Slovak Republic’s governmental structure to provide assistance to
a more politically open and transparent state. A side by comparison displays the major change
from a worker to citizen based society.
Changes in Governmental Structure: Federal Ministries
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1991 200816
Agriculture and Food Agriculture
Communication
Construction and Regional Development
Culture
Education
Economy
Employment
Environment
Electrotechnical Industry
Finance Finance
Foreign affairs Foreign Affairs
Foreign trade
Fuels and power
General engineering
Health Care
Interior Interior
Justice
Labor and Social Affairs Labor, Social Affairs & Family
Metallurgy and Heavy Engineering
National Defense Defense
Transportation Transport, Posts and Telecommunications
15 Government Structure of Communist Czechoslovakia. Available from; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Government_structure_of_Communist_Czechoslovakia; Internet; Accessed 17 April 2008.
16 National Council of the Slovak Republic. “List of Institutions”. Available from; http://www.nrsr.sk/default.aspx?
sid=nrsr/historia (accessed 18 April 2008)
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The comparative list offers an insight to the modernization of Slovak society. The 1991
Ministries are Soviet standards from the 1930’s during Stalin’s implementation of 5year
economic plans. Today the expansion of services towards society demonstrate a major ideological
shift. Under the influential policies of the former Soviet Union, MarxistLeninism would easily
resolve all of society’s problems, freeing mankind to evolve. A Westerner would initially herald
such a ministerial structure as a way forward. Unfortunately these services started from point
zero and need funding. The challenge today for Slovakia is offering these services without
incurring massive foreign debt. During the socialist era, oversight was done by organizations
directed by the Supreme Party Organs. In the spirit of democracy the National Slovak Council
has created many scrutinizing oversight committees to hopefully regulate the transparent
operation of government bodies.17 Unfortunately, corruption is evident in these new departments
as citizens have reported having to pay for services, such as health care, that are supposed to be
free.18
SocioEconomics and Political Voices of Citizenry: A Tangled Umbilical Cord
Obviously the switch to a multiparty system is always for the better in regards to the
citizens access to politics. With the bickering politicians playing a populist game of pushmepull
17 A complete list of Slovak National council Oversight Committees is listed in table 2 of the Appendix.
18Corruption in Slovakia Results of Diagnostic Surveys. World Bank and the United States Agency for
International Development. Available from; www.tur.vlada.gov.sk/data/files/2764.doc; (accessed
19 April 2008)
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for the nation’s direction, are the citizens really better off than under socialist times? The general
theme of changes in the economic sector have had political repercussions. Under Western
recommendations a rapid change in the economy was the solution, but the harmful side effects of
initial inflation and unemployment, does not put food on the table. Lacking transparency has also
meant reduce foreign investment as compared to the bordering states (except the Ukraine). The
leadership of Slovakia displayed outward empathy at keeping state control of industry and the
economy. Again this was a ploy as they siphoned off the nation’s wealth through illegal
privatization deals. The average Slovakian probably never considered the future when celebrating
the Velvet Revolution and not a clue to what life would be like after the Velvet Divorce.
In the socioeconomic sectors there have been changes but also statistics that have
remained unchanged.19 From 1991 to 2006 the population increased slightly from 5.24 million to
5.388 million, education spending as a percentage of GDP remains at 4%, and persons living
below the poverty level, also unchanged at 2%. Overall leading economic indicators have also
shown major improvements. To help analyze the relationship between socioeconomic conditions
the following chart has been created. The prime ministers office, which yields the most power in
the government is placed in relationship to a major characteristic during that year to show when
the country’s direction changed and possibly why.
19 Examining the statistical changes affecting the the average Slovakian will be using the International
Monetary Fund’s Database, not for accuracy but consistency of methodology.
18
National Percent per Percent per Index
UNITS Currency Index number annum U.S. dollars annum Index number number
SCALE Millions Units Units Millions Units Units Units
INDUSTRIAL CONSUMER AVERAGE
SOCIAL OUTPUT UNEMPLOYME TRADE DISCOUNT PRICE MONTHLY
DESCRIPTOR BENEFITS SEAS.ADJ. NT RATE BALANCE RATE INDEX WAGES
1991 n.a. 85.395 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
1992 n.a. 77.154 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
1993 n.a. 74.311 n.a. 912.076 12.000 54.072 47.141
1994 n.a. 77.953 13.650 60.707 12.000 61.323 55.066
1995 n.a. 86.155 13.100 229.220 9.750 67.386 62.948
1996 n.a. 88.394 11.330 2282.700 8.800 71.301 71.339
1997 n.a. 89.485 13.000 2084.480 8.800 75.657 80.717
1998 n.a. 94.259 13.700 2350.730 8.800 80.724 87.522
1999 142637.000 92.312 17.300 1109.020 8.800 89.257 93.858
2000 150443.000 100.000 18.200 894.535 8.800 100.000 100.000
2001 164633.000 106.900 18.300 n.a. 7.750 107.330 108.180
2002 183591.000 113.727 17.800 2165.610 6.500 110.897 118.206
2003 186923.000 119.553 15.200 648.716 6.000 120.383 125.678
2004 208813.000 124.267 14.268 n.a. 4.000 129.470 138.451
2005 250427.000 129.070 11.700 n.a. 3.000 132.977 151.129
2006 270250.000 n.a. 10.383 n.a. 4.750 138.939 164.138
2007 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.250 142.769 176.177
Years & background color denotes Prime Ministers main characteristic or foreign policy:
gray=corrupt, blue= following the West, red= hinting to the East
Numerical data colors indicating change: green= improvement , red= worsening
Of interest to the average working citizen, unemployment decreased and wages kept ahead
of the consumer price index. In regards to benefits for the business sector, industrial output is up
and the prime bank lending rate down. The trade balance show significant variation. Further
analysis would be necessary to locate the factors, be it political or economic, internal or external
factors. During the years of a corrupt administration the trade deficit shot up, surely influencing a
swing to the West for a solution. When a westward leaning proEuropean Union prime minister
held office, the unemployment is obviously high. After 6 years at or above 14% unemployment,
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the swing to a prime minister who’s rhetoric mimics his eastern neighbors. The difficulty of
meeting EU standards on such a small nation are understandable. Possibly the same amount of
economic benefits associating with the Russia Federation is possible sans the burden demands in
political and socioeconomic requirements imposed by the European Union. The increase in
social benefits costs may have two causes, more efficient bureaucracy or old habits of borrowing.
The new ministries involved providing social services may be better at identifying those at risk
and attempting to assist those in need. On the other hand, as in the 1970s during oil shocks, many
Soviet bloc nations borrowed heavily to keep inflation on consumer commodities low and the
populace content. The level of corruption in the Slovak government would most likely support a
“rob Peter to pay Paul” for short term funding of social programs.
The record for human rights improvement and political access for the citizens has been
very good. From 2000 until 2004 the level of Voice and Accountability Scale the ability to
participate in political, social and economic processes, tripled. Comparatively in the Russian
Federation ,as well as the United States, it has declined. Political prisoners and abuse as known
under Communist rule has disappeared. Slovakia’s government also reports no major human
rights abuses.20 However, there are a few blemishes to the record, as most cases involve the
underpaid police forces and the prison system.21 Today your political and human rights are well
20 U.S. Department of State. ”Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2006.”
http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2006/78838.htm (accessed April 14th, 2008).
21 U.S. Congressional record. “Slovakia Deserves NATO Membership.” 105th Congress, 1st Session.
http://www.house.gov/mica/fs061197.htm (accessed April 18th, 2008)
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guaranteed by the Slovak Republic’s constitution if: a) Your free speech does not say anything
bad about the government. b) Your are not of Romani descent.
A hold over from the Communist era, Romani women are still encouraged to be sterilized.
This discrimination against the Romani population (1.8%) has been longstanding. The
Communist offered financial compensation, today Romani woman are assisted by medical
authorities who apply pressure to have this procedure. A reduction in social benefits for the poor
and underprivileged also affect them.22 Recent legislation reduces welfare benefits as only a
temporary measure and designed as a motivational program to discourage people becoming
dependent on the system.
Other poor treatment of minorities has occurred in Slovak history. As a Nazi protectorate
twothirds of the Jewish population were exported to Germany at a cost of five dollars each.
Today abundant articles in the Slovak Republic’s constitution aim to protect minority rights focus
on eliminating this dark blemish from the past. The Jewish population in Slovakia today is
numbered at 3,000. Unfortunately there are 500 active members NeoNazis with an estimated
4,000 sympathizers.23
Education and the Economy: Slow Changes
Slovakia’s higher education has shown some improvements but is still in the shadow of
22 Roma Press Agency, http://www.rpa.sk/clanok.aspx?o=zc&n=1360&l=en, (accessed April 14th, 2008)
23 U.S. Department of State. ”Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2006.”
http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2006/78838.htm (accessed April 14th, 2008).
21
Soviet mentality. Though university credits in Slovakia are now transferable to other European
Union institutions, recent analysis has reported the need for change in several key areas. There
has been an increase in fields offered but overall an mid29th century style of education that is
not preparing graduates for the modern job. The idea of focusing on the students needs still has
not taken hold. The suggested improvements for the promoting creative thinking in college level
students would be a needed change to overall Slovak thinking about government’s role in society.
Since gaining independence the spending of education has remained 4% of the GDP. In public
schools a choice is offered between religion and ethics classes, a remarkable change over
Communist times.
The economy, geared originally to fit into the Soviet COMECON model, now is booming
with EU association.24 Most Slovakians work in the service sector and the investment climate is
promoted as positive, even from the US State Department.25 But it is difficult to find a balanced
review of the reality there. Being promoted as a safe and wise investment location, but is this for
the best?26 With a multiparty system of alliances can one predict the mood swing of policies to
the left or right? Does investment under the current multiparty semicorrupt government really
promote democracy? Investors are motivated by profit but so it seems are Slovak government
24 Tamsin Smith, “Slovakia’s economy enjoys EU boom”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4506109.stm,
BBC News, (accessed April18th, 2008).
25U.S. Department of State. “2006 Investment Climate Statement – Slovakia,”
http://www.state.gov/e/eeb/ifd/2006/62032.htm (accessed April 10th, 2008)
26 Index of Economic Freedoms. “The Slovak Republic.” http://www.heritage.org/
index/country.cfm?id=SlovakRepublic. (accessed April 12th, 2008)
22
officials.27 Though it only takes 25 days to start a business there, most industries are still owned
by the government (51% share holders), yet run by private management. Major industries still
focus on 20th century production. The current government does not promote competition in
sectors it controls, such as energy and telecommunications. The new Prime Minster Fico recently
raised minimum wages by 10%, how soon before it leans for more control over private investment
there?28 The boom that the economy experienced was based on basic modern technological
improvements introduced after the failed Soviet system. Any changes introduced would have
improved the economy. Introducing normal missing elements into a crumbling system such as
information technologies and a tourist industry are not fundamental changes towards improving
an economy. There does a exist a liberal labor market and an across the board 19% tax rate, but
the government’s intentions are shortterm as to sneak over the bar meeting European Union
requirements.
Constitution: A guiding light (but only when lit).
The 1960 and 1993 Constitutions both are designed to meet the government’s overall
needs. Political and human rights went from being labeled as those for a worker to those of a
citizen. The 1960 edition was a cookie cutter Soviet model and the 1993 version was created
27 Economist, “Poor government in Central Europe”, http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?
Story_ID=E1_STJRRTS, (accessed April 22nd, 2008)
28EU Buisness. “Slovak economic boom, 2009 Euro Entry Ontrack.”
http://www.eubusiness.com, /Finance/slovakiaeconomy.62/ (accessed April20th, 2008).
23
behind closed doors, does resembles a Western European parliamentary democratic republic. Its
birth was assisted by parliamentary approval not by popular referendum. Voting, political rights,
procedures, obligations, and power distribution, etc. in both constitutions have nothing that can
be considered unique or gifts to the world. The election of the president went from parliamentary
approval to popularly elected. The 3/5 majority to be voted in was mirrored the 3/5 needed for the
president’s removal. The conditions for removal were considered arbitrary and used as a political
tool and were hence modified.29
Conclusion
One begins to wonder if Eastern Europe is really European on or a hybrid mixed with
Asiatic influence. The trend to start with a democracy, drift in chaos, and stabilize under
autocratic rule is a repetitive theme. Do the Slavs and other central Asian tribes who settled the
region have a propensity for strong centralized leadership or when they individual have enough
freedom that they do not care what happens outside their personal realms. The Slovaks existed as
a nation for centuries under foreign rule and maybe their lives were content to an acceptable
degree. When a region only knows one type of reality, how can they move forward towards our
expectations? Their analysis of the United States may conclude that we are an anomaly
, having developed oceans away in a land full of resources and opportunities. Placing ideology as
a basic framework for a society seems logical, but as it was once said, “Human rights start at
29 Article 106 . 1993 Slovak Republic Consitution.
24
breakfast”. The average Slovak tolerates what we do not find acceptable, less we forget we are not
in their shoes. A recent art show at the U.S. Embassy in Bratislava, an author’s book and the
works of 17 Slovak artists from current and communists times were displayed. The book titles,
“”Dreams Intersect Reality”, would be a theme for life in today’s Slovak Republic.30
Predictions
A Slovak Republic citizen currently earns half of the European Union average. at the
current rate of growth it will take approximately a decade to be equal. Disregarding inflation, this
could be accomplished by the Slovakians on their. However, it will take the EU tugging on
Slovakia’s boot straps for them to grudgingly reach Eurostandards in other areas of society. So it
the short term, things will be on the current path. Long term predictions will be based on how
long the Europeans will tolerate Slovak obstinate to change. The rise of of Russia will continue,
though under a semiautocratic condition. as a transparent democracy is not necessary for
exponential growth. Histories old bonds and a balance of power between East and West may be a
reason for Slovakia to leave the European Union. They are at a point where relinquishing their
autonomy is near impossible, but by being more neutral will play on nationalistic tendencies to
the delight of the ruling elite. Instead of the next Hong Kong, we one may see the Slovak
Republic as the next Switzerland. The ability of the corrupt politicians to influence the private
30Embassy of the United States Bratislava, Slovakia. “Embassy Supports Greater Exposure of Communist
era Slovak Art,” Embassy Events, http://slovakia.usembassy.gov/embassy supportsgreaterexposure
ofcommunisteraslovakartseptember192007.html (accessed March 12th, 2008)
25
sector could offer a haven to escape European regulations. Switzerland was once associated with
mysterious bank accounts and this could be an outlet for those Russians in the East needing a
playground and a safe investment climate. Without the foreign direct investment needed by the
Slovaks and ability to conform to transparency, the influx of petrolrubles from the East could be
a long term alternative. Though there is some moving forward on the overall scorecard of the
Slovak Republic, there exists a major impediment to change, the partnership for society’s
development involving the some sort of intellectual class that is concerned with the people’s
needs. As under Communist control, the government is to involved with the choices in everyday
society.
Diasporic Reactions
The total world population is 7.4 million people, 2million of those living in North
America. An effort was made to find interviews and Americanbased newspapers to analyze how
Slovak descendants reacting to the changes that have occurred. Unfortunately, online and library
sources yielded no usable material. Most North American Slovakians arrived here during the
upheavals in the late 19th century for the region’s burst of nationalism. Inclusion of the viewpoints
of those who had not experienced Soviet oppression or the recent changes from inside Slovakia’s
could have been an interesting addition.
26
Appendixes
Table 1
List of Current Political Parties in the Slovak Republic
1. Hnutie za Demokratické Slovensko HZDS Movement for a Democratic Slovakia
2. Strana Demokratickej L’avice SDL Party of the Democratic Left
3. Magyar Koalíció Pártja MK Hungarian Coalition Party
4. Együttélés Coexistence
5. Magyar Polgári Párt MPP Hungarian Civic Party
6. Krest’anskodemokratické hnutie na Slovensku KDK Christian Democratic Movement
7. Slovenská demokratická a krestanská únia SDKÚ Slovak Democratic and Christian Union
8. Slovenská národná strana SNS Slowak National Party
9. Aliancia Nového Obcana New Civic Alliance (Liberal Party of Slovakia)
10. Liberálna Mládez Slovenska Youth Organization of Aliancia Nového Obcana
11. Strana Smer Direction Party
12. Komunistická strana Slovenska KSS Communist party of Slovakia
13. Obcianska konzervativna strana OKS Civic Conservative Party
14. Slobodne Forum Free Forum
15. Slovenská Pospolitost
Table 231
1. Mandate and Immunity Committee
2. Committee on the Incompatibility of Functions
3. Committee on European Affairs
4. Constitutional and Legal Affairs Committee
5. Committee on Finance, Budget and Currency
6. Committee on Economic Policy
7. Committee on Agriculture, Environment and Nature Protection
8. Committee on Public Administration and Regional Development
9. Committee on Social Affairs and Housing
10. Committee on Health Care
11. Committee on Defense and Security
12. Foreign Affairs Committee
13. Committee on Education, Youth, Science and Sports
14. Committee on Culture and Media
15. Committee on Human Rights, Minorities and the Status of Women
16. Special Control Committee for the Control of Activities of the National Security Authority
17. Special Control Committee for the Control of Activities of the Slovak Intelligence Service
18. Special Control Committee for the Control of the Activities of the Military Intelligence Service
19. Committee for the Review of Decisions of the National Security Authority
31 National Slovak Council. “Committees Status and Powers:. Available at; http://www.nrsr.sk/default.aspx?
sid=vybory/kompetencie; Internet: Accessed 18 April 2008.

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The World’s Economic Systems – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

The world’s economic systems are best understood by basic comparison using the following six criteria: Allocation Mechanisms, Forms of Ownership, Role of Planning, Types of Incentives, Income Redistribution and Social Safety Nets, and the Role of Politics and Ideology. All six criteria intertwine in producing a description of how an economy operates however using the Allocation Mechanism and Forms of Ownership will define an overall classification for a system between traditional, capitalist, and socialist. If these three systems were points on a triangle, none would match theoretical criteria that would place them on these extreme points. The structure of an economy in reality is a mixture of alternatives within these criteria. Why economies align differently is greatly influenced by historical background and using these criteria we can connect their structures on a stable model for further evaluation. Economics is the science of allocative mechanisms. The custom allocative mechanism is not related to scientific thinking at all but is based upon how a society has operated in the past and will continue to operate. Social and/or religious mores are the dominant factor is in allocating resources. The second and most widespread choice is allocation by market forces in an open economy. A system of decentralized decision making for resource allocation between buyers and producers determined by prices. In it purest theoretical form is the basis for capitalism. The last and most recent form is command wherein allocation is from a top-down perspective. Authority in various forms has become the decision maker disregarding prices. This is often associated with socialism and is a basis for Marxist-Leninism. Forms of ownership divide along to camps referring to the means of production, private ownership (individual) and state (government), the former associated with capitalism and the latter with socialism. Hybrids of these systems have developed market socialism and command capitalism responding to various economic situations with partial state ownership of
an aspect of capital (land in a feudal society) or entire industries (steel manufacturing). Using these first two criteria typically can label to which area an economy falls between traditional, capitalist, and socialist. Depending on in what direction and economy is geared defines the Role of Planning. Consumer based system align towards no central planning and is associated with capitalism. Centrally planned economies operate on the planners’ preference be it military or reinvesting in capital. Highly inefficient, central planning is a key element in a socialist economy. Here
again we find a type of hybrid in the form of indicative planning where government suggest a direction economy through policy action and central planning in the infrastructure coordination to keep an economy operating efficiently. Incentives have three basic grouping, material (the driving force in capitalism), ideological (socialism), and religious (traditional). The separation of ideology and religious incentives is based on where the incentive is obtained, this life or the next. Often economies are again a mixture with material incentive the dominate influence even in the other choices. Incentives can also be classified as negative when the use of force or punishment are used as an alternative. Income Redistribution and Social Safety Nets are the most diverse in relation to various choices. Traditional systems have basic based on the family as a supporting unit, loyalty and obligation in feudal or religion based societies. Income redistribution has its extreme edges firmly planted in the capitalist side based on efficient individual productivity versus socialist concept of equal distribution. Systems with the most opportunity to obtain wealth in an open market have the least amount of income redistribution. Socialism tends to redistribute wealth through taxation. Both system however are greatly influenced by their historical experiences in regards to social safety nets. Private and public sectors supply various Social Safety Nets ranging from housing, public education and works, social security, health and child care, minimum standards and wages, and lifetime employment. The Role of Politics and Ideology is the last criteria and the defining phrase for the 20 Century. Liberal democracy (individualism) linked to capitalism pushes for open markets and a minimalistic role in government intervention (laissez-faire) in markets. Economic growth is the basic philosophy but often has deviated in Imperialism and Fascist Corporatism. The competing alternative Socialism (class-based) proclaims the state control is best for society. It also has evolved into negative forms involving dictatorships. A third middle way between the two system labeled, social democracy where the political banner of democracy is flown safely based in a equitable social system in an open market system.

The late 20 century Cold War era displays a slight variation in forms of ownership and significantly different efforts in income redistribution and social safety nets (I.R.&S.S.N.) between the U.S., Japan, Germany (East and West), France, and Sweden. Two major coompeting economic ideologies competed for superiority, capitalist with private ownership of the means of production and socialist with state ownership of capital in East Germany. In between we find a mixed ownership that can be sub-divided in to two categories. West Germany and Japan use some state ownership between government ministry, banking, and private sector with a goal of state ownership withdrawing leaving private ownership in major industrial sectors locked into the banking sector. Japan goes one step further interlocking ownerships of the means of productions between companies. France and Sweden, both a mixture of private and state ownership, have used state ownership to protect crucial industries
inheir growth periods and also to support them in their decay. Countries (France and th Sweden) that have relied on on state ownership in the late 20 Century have suffered the largest economic downturns with increased pressure of marker globalization and increased competition.
The was also a great divergence in I.R.&S.S.N. between these nations. The U.S. turned towards “The Great Society” in the 1960’s with a remarkable increase in taxes governmental safety nets. Then reversed its course reducing these policies during periods of slow growth
(1980’s). Japan utilized a system of equal wages and economic security supplied tied to the loyalty of workers removing government from the equation. On the opposite end we find East Germany and the entire economic ideology was based on fairness in income redistribution
and a gigantic bureaucratic social safety net, supplying neither in a sustainable efficient form. The social democratic West Germany, France, and Sweden over that period dramatically increased I.R.&S.S.N. benefits with their rapidly growing economies becoming some of the
most generous in the world. However increased global competition and externalities (oil shocks) have many to believe the need to shift away from heavy social subsidies to promote growth in their economies.

The macroeconomic performance of the U.S., Germany, Japan, France, and Sweden can be divided in three major cycles. The initial post war period where the intact efficient economies of the U.S. and Sweden were ready for increased economic globalization and the
decimated economies of German, France, and Japan that needed rapid growth to reach a state of normalcy. The second being where technological limits, oil shocks, social pressures, etc. in a changing world of the late 1960’s and 1970’s resulted in stagflation. The final period was the technology boom and increased global competition that rattled these economies. Economic growth has Sweden leading with above average consistent growth in the first half followed by Germany, Japan, and France. The U.S. has on average slower growth rate but is more
consistent and a larger economy with double digit growth very difficult. The U.S . leads in labor productivity followed by Sweden, Japan, Germany, and France due to the nature of its more competitive system. Some decline in labor productivity is in the European nations is due
the attempts at equality in the the workforce. Inflation seemed to be highest in post- war France, unstable in the U.S. until tackled by the Federal Reserve in the 1980’s, ran its course in Sweden as the government promoted exports growth, hitting Japan mostly in times of energy crises, and well managed by Germany as it is main target of the Bundesbank. Income redistribution was most equal in Japan, followed by Sweden, France, Germany, and the U.S.. Income growth throughout this period was consistently upward in all but showed a major drop in income (and a -3% growth rate) in Sweden around 1990/91 with a global recession, their joining the E.U., and uncertainty with a new government in power. Oddly the German economy had a 13% growth rate spike in 1991. This 60 year period shows a slow increase in unemployment in Europe with the U.S. staying below half their average. This is an indicator of different Central Bank monetary policies and displays the openness of the U.S. to adapt to changing labor markets. Japan seems to be facing a growth in unemployment at the end of the century. The complete picture is that these economies performed well macro-economically using various techniques to handle their domestic economies. However these methods are coming under pressure to adapt with increased globalization of the world economy.

China’s Decline – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

In 1978, the Chinese government began gradually opening itself to the outside world using a doctrine on centralized planning. This exposed China’s billion plus population to the potentially greatest market known to capitalism. Foreign corporations (FC), armed with Western business techniques and capital, entered with high expectations in domestic consumer sales and the abundant labor market for cheap production costs. FCs’ started out with the motto that ‘they cannot be left out’ of this opportunity, realizing all is not as it seems in China. They discovered China is ruled by man rather than law. The major difficulties can be isolated into various categories-political, cultural, geographic and economic.

Political stability enforced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing, from an outsider’s point of view, appears to be solid. The conflicts between regions and the central capital are not easily apparent. The CCP needs to guide China’s fast paced economy while simultaneously trying to develop a functional modern legal system that is currently overburdened. The regional district governments often are not enforcing rules and decisions that might affect their local economy and political power base. FCs are often caught between what the government rhetoric Beijing says it will do and what is actually enforced at the local level. The CCP, which sees itself as the guiding force in economic development, continually intervenes with policies that counter traditional market forces.

Why not explore more books on this topc?

Book cover for "The Rise and Fall of the East".

The private sector is often at a disadvantage when competing against State Owned Enterprises (SOE). Receiving preferential treatment in obtaining licenses, bank loans, stock market listings and access to capital, the SOE are still inefficient. This centralized bureaucratic tradition of control is at China’s core and creates an unstable business environment according to Western standards. Recently, world opinion has also been criticizing economic data coming from Beijing as being inaccurate and used as a lure to foreign investors painting a rosy picture of China’s economy. It might be viewed as Beijing becoming addicted and wasteful with foreign investment.

Once established, FCs in China face a multitude of logistical obstacles, culture differences and externalities. The initial excitement of FCs’ expectations has been tempered by low efficiency as it takes $4 USD invested to produce $10 USD of growth. The input of capital investment for modernizing to improve this has often led to a few companies getting caught in a “value trap.” When they keep sinking money into a project believing that it will solve the problem, they only loose more. Another misconception that attracts FCs into China, is the belief that small margins in such an enormous consumer market will produce profit. Unfortunately, the Chinese average income is decades away from reaching the $5,000 USD level necessary for Western style discretionary spending on consumer goods. Much of these potential consumers are scattered over a wide area and serviced by a haphazard distribution system. Domestic competition is extremely fierce as the Chinese based businesses are often willing to operate on lower profit margins than FCs.

The most annoying issue facing FCs would be the distinct cultural differences. In a system where emotions take precedent over business logic, outsiders have difficulty understanding the personal politics in Chinese business relations. Face matters above all; appearance over substance. Offending this could lead to FCs without Chinese partners and compounded by a spotty legal system, leading to disaster. Examining the following graph may provide evidence. The amount of foreign investment in China may not have decreased due to difficulties there but, there has been a shift in the ratio from where the money is coming from. The business environment may be improving due to the increase in total investment among Asian investors. However, non-Asian investors are growing more culturally and geographically cautious to investing in China.

Two pie charts showing decline in non-Asian investment in Chine for China's Decline article from Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz .

Externalities may also come to play in economic problems for FCs. Becoming tied into the world may affect China’s stability in an economic global slowdown or a shock such as an oil crisis. China is being pressured on human rights and environmental issues and in an effort to keep up appearances may make choices to please FCs to keep steady flow of capital arriving while further undermining the economy. One issue not raised in the research materials is that the problems faced by FCs would be the pressure from their domestic population and government as jobs and capital flow to a nation with less than a perfect reputation. Most issues faced by FCs can not be solved by them and are dependent upon how things play out in China’s path of economic growth

In reading the articles of The Economist, the idea that China’s economy is due for a decline in growth is suggestive. Many factors have lead to China’s massive growth. However, the long-term affects of these factors may in fact cause the economy to fall. Over investment, the breaking up of key monopolies and unemployment levels may all lead to the decline of China’s economy.

Throughout China, the notion of private enterprise is becoming accepted. The ‘inglorious rich’ are investing more and more; maybe too much for the sake of China’s economy. In a period with no consumer-spending binge, the economy obviously can not continue growing as much as it has. China’s society feels the need to horde their money away or place it in private investments. In 2004, China had 46% of its GDP invested one way or another. Due to a lack of provided health care, many feel the great need to start saving for their future and/or retirement. The economy as a whole needs the circulation of money that is being withheld in life savings.

The Economist believes the economy needs to slow down when it comes to investing. China’s government has come up with many ways to make investment look less appealing. For example, tighter controls have been placed on investment projects. Small banks are temporarily frozen to new lending and there is an increased encouragement in the use of China’s own capital in the construction field. In doing the above, investors are encouraged to do otherwise with their funds.

Along with the over investment trend, key monopolies in China are being broken up or faced with extreme competition. One of China’s largest monopolies is the cell phone industry. “Almost 70% of Chinese who can afford a mobile phone have one (The Economist: “Disconnected” Aug.26, 2004).” With two wireless operators: China Mobile and China Unicom and two fixed-line giants: China Telecom and China Netcom, this monopoly is obvious. Profit margins for these companies exceeded 50% in 2003. This is a huge increase and development. However, it is in only one sector of the economy; a sector being threatened for that matter. Management within the telecom sector is falling. Government appointed managers have taken the places of excellent, retired managers that were members of the Ministry of Information Industries(MII). These managers found the new “personal handy-phone system” (PHS) from Japan as a threat to fixed-line providers. Now firms are cutting prices and raising capital spending to win new customers. Government appointed managers have been enforcing the investment of “shoddy home-grown three generation (3G) mobile standards.” Japan’s PHS may be moving in on China, but the system is illegal according to the MII because it is such a huge threat to breaking up this monopoly. If any of these threats fully succeed, one of China’s main investment areas will be broken up. With such a massive, fast growing trend, the economy needs the industry to stay stable to keep itself stable.

Through over investment and attempts at breaking up key monopolies, China could indeed be in for a decline in growth. China has retreated itself from agriculture, industry and commerce, which created around 15 million unemployed within the cities and ten times that in the countryside. In 2003, this resulted in an overall rate of 20% unemployed. Unfortunately, numbers for unemployment rates are quite difficult to find and are often severely underestimated. With such larger numbers of unemployed persons, the economy is sure to decline. There is a gap between the ‘inglorious rich’ with private investments and those with nothing. This has led to the decline in consumer spending where not as much is going back into the economy as needed to keep it booming.

Urban Unemployment in China 2001-2004 – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Many difficulties are facing China. With the decline in growth over the past few years, China will be looking at a crisis soon. The pollution and disease spread could create a disaster for the population. With some insight from The Economist, we believe that China will have to have severe policy reform and sustained change to effectively bring about higher health standards.

Pollution is a huge issue facing China right now. There are 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities located in China. Mao Zedong’s drive for industrialization has created environmental catastrophes all over the country. The swift acceleration of economic growth in the past has only led to more pollution and worsened the problem. China spends as much as $170 billion annually for degradation trying to fix this problem. Pollution still exists though. In some cases there are streets filled with raw sewage. There are severe effects to China’s health when sewage is right outside their front door.

China is facing this predicament also because of the spread of disease occurring in the country. Diseases such as tuberculosis and measles, which were thought to have been restrained, are making a return into China. With the healthcare system that has collapsed, basic health standards to prevent disease and spread have been put aside. According to the World Health Organization, China is the only country in the western Pacific region that relies on patients to finance childhood immunizations. Due to this lack of funding, not surprisingly, many peasants avoid treatment. The spread of disease cannot be tamed if the citizens are not receiving basic and necessary immunizations. A severe potential health threat would be another severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. There are now 4280 probable cases and 206 deaths. China now accounts for 65% of the world’s total cumulative number of probable SARS cases and 44% of all reported deaths. If SARS where to take hold in a rural community where facilities are scarce, the disease spread would be almost impossible to stop. Another neglected health problem in China that has potential for creating a crisis is HIV. Currently China has around 1 million HIV carriers. The World Health Organization estimates that in 2010 this number could rise to 10 million. China accounts for about 840000 HIV infections, which is almost two-thirds of the western pacific region. In parts of China, rates of HIV prevalence in injecting drug users range from 20% in Guangdong to 89% in Xinjiang. This type of epidemic could create severe crisis. These issues need to be taken care of or China will be in a crisis.

SARS cumulative probable cases in Western Pacific 2002-2203 for - Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz

China health spending of governement spending for - Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz

China actual health spending of governement health spending for - Politcal Science Academic Research - Anthony Mrugacz

In conclusion, we feel The Economist gives supporting information and examples to a possible decline in China’s economic growth. Hopefully, with the 5 Year Plan of 2006-2010, China can maintain or improve its growth rather than causing it to decline.

Brief Summary of Highlights CCP Central Committee 11^th Five Year Plan – Politcal Science Academic Research – Anthony Mrugacz

Maintaining high-speed economic growth, of at least 7-8 %
Creates new jobs to absorb the 10-15million workers that enter the labor marker each year
Green GDP to ensure that growth does not continue at the expense of environmental destruction.
HIV/AIDS prevention and control: key public health issue
Increased social services, for a “harmonious society” developed on scientific concepts.
Integrate with the world economy.

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